Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

33
+2.1%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.8 Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,811.65
Current Value
$9,934.94
Period P&L
$123.28
Max Drawdown
-24.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
9 / 6
Best Trade
+1.50%
Worst Trade
-2.20%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
1.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$284,607.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$123.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$123.28
Gross Return
+1.26%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.26%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,811.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $355.43 27 $9,596.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $352.57 27 $9,519.39 $9,734.44 $-77.22
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:45am ET $349.16 27 $9,427.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:50am ET $348.10 27 $9,398.70 $9,705.82 $-28.62
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 12:55pm ET $336.77 28 $9,429.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 1:15pm ET $338.48 28 $9,477.44 $9,753.70 +$47.88
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $383.71 25 $9,592.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $376.93 25 $9,423.25 $9,584.20 $-169.50
(-1.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $370.05 25 $9,251.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:55am ET $361.91 25 $9,047.63 $9,380.70 $-203.50
(-2.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 12:10pm ET $325.01 28 $9,100.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 2:00pm ET $324.37 28 $9,082.36 $9,362.92 $-17.78
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $328.24 28 $9,190.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $330.01 28 $9,240.28 $9,412.48 +$49.56
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $328.67 28 $9,202.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:40am ET $332.71 28 $9,315.88 $9,525.46 +$112.98
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:50pm ET $332.94 28 $9,322.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 3:10pm ET $334.27 28 $9,359.56 $9,562.70 +$37.24
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:40am ET $333.82 28 $9,346.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:55am ET $338.63 28 $9,481.50 $9,697.24 +$134.54
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $368.28 26 $9,575.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET $373.79 26 $9,718.54 $9,840.50 +$143.26
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET $377.83 26 $9,823.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 1:25pm ET $380.35 26 $9,889.10 $9,906.02 +$65.52
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $372.55 26 $9,686.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $375.28 26 $9,757.28 $9,977.13 +$71.11
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:20pm ET $361.32 27 $9,755.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $362.75 27 $9,794.25 $10,015.74 +$38.61
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $368.19 27 $9,941.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $365.20 27 $9,860.40 $9,934.94 $-80.80
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,934.94
Net Profit/Loss: $-65.06
Total Return: -0.65%
Back to Professor Mean