Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:33:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.8/35
Total Return
10.9/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 42.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 41.7

30-Day Momentum

14
-1.3%
30d Return
55%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.5 Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,115.15
Current Value
$11,966.37
Period P&L
$-148.81
Max Drawdown
-4.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.20

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
7 / 5
Best Trade
+0.54%
Worst Trade
-1.64%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
7.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$282,753.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-148.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$-148.81
Gross Return
-1.23%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,115.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $707.41 17 $12,025.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $708.24 17 $12,040.16 $12,129.45 +$14.28
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $708.63 17 $12,046.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:45am ET $711.17 17 $12,089.88 $12,172.62 +$43.17
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 2:05pm ET $718.37 16 $11,493.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $718.49 16 $11,495.91 $12,174.61 +$1.99
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET $714.22 17 $12,141.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 11:10am ET $714.64 17 $12,148.80 $12,181.66 +$7.05
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $707.95 17 $12,035.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 3:05pm ET $707.09 17 $12,020.55 $12,167.15 $-14.52
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 3:50pm ET $718.03 16 $11,488.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $716.26 16 $11,460.16 $12,138.75 $-28.40
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $707.65 17 $12,030.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:40am ET $711.45 17 $12,094.57 $12,203.26 +$64.51
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 3:50pm ET $715.26 17 $12,159.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $703.57 17 $11,960.61 $12,004.45 $-198.81
(-1.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $708.65 16 $11,338.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $705.43 16 $11,286.88 $11,952.93 $-51.52
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $709.06 16 $11,344.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:00pm ET $709.95 16 $11,359.20 $11,967.17 +$14.24
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:40pm ET $715.92 16 $11,454.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 3:05pm ET $716.71 16 $11,467.36 $11,979.81 +$12.64
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET $743.23 16 $11,891.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:00am ET $742.39 16 $11,878.24 $11,966.37 $-13.44
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,966.37
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,966.37
Total Return: +19.66%
Back to Professor Mean