Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:07:32

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

41
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.8/35
Total Return
14.2/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 41.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 40.9

30-Day Momentum

23
+1.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.1 Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,838.14
Current Value
$14,830.11
Period P&L
$-8.06
Max Drawdown
-18.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
6 / 7
Best Trade
+1.96%
Worst Trade
-1.37%
Avg Trade Return
+0.00%
Avg Hold Time
3.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$383,932.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-8.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-8.06
Gross Return
-0.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $14,838.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 11:35am ET $38.11 389 $14,824.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 1:30pm ET $37.84 389 $14,719.76 $14,733.13 $-105.03
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 2:25pm ET $38.53 382 $14,720.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 3:40pm ET $38.41 382 $14,672.58 $14,685.34 $-47.79
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $39.97 367 $14,670.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $39.46 367 $14,479.99 $14,494.50 $-190.84
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $39.67 365 $14,477.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 12:55pm ET $39.87 365 $14,552.55 $14,569.33 +$74.82
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 1:45pm ET $45.18 322 $14,547.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 3:40pm ET $44.85 322 $14,440.09 $14,461.46 $-107.87
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $44.41 325 $14,433.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $45.11 325 $14,660.75 $14,688.96 +$227.50
(+1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:10pm ET $45.54 322 $14,665.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:00pm ET $45.76 322 $14,734.72 $14,758.19 +$69.23
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET $50.43 292 $14,725.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 3:10pm ET $50.69 292 $14,800.02 $14,832.65 +$74.46
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $47.68 311 $14,828.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $48.62 311 $15,119.27 $15,123.59 +$290.94
(+2.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $46.86 322 $15,088.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:55am ET $46.84 322 $15,082.48 $15,117.15 $-6.44
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $50.61 298 $15,081.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 11:05am ET $49.95 298 $14,885.10 $14,920.47 $-196.68
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $48.97 304 $14,886.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:30pm ET $49.35 304 $15,002.40 $15,035.99 +$115.52
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:00pm ET $49.24 305 $15,018.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $48.56 305 $14,812.32 $14,830.11 $-205.88
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,830.11
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,830.11
Total Return: +48.30%
Back to Professor Mean