Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:34

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.0/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
8.5/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 42.2/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 40.1

30-Day Momentum

13
+0.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.2 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,100.51
Current Value
$15,142.79
Period P&L
$42.27
Max Drawdown
-18.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+1.00%
Worst Trade
-2.49%
Avg Trade Return
+0.05%
Avg Hold Time
3.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$181,826.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$42.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$42.27
Gross Return
+0.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.28%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $15,100.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:10pm ET $47.15 320 $15,086.40
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:40pm ET $46.97 320 $15,032.00 $15,046.12 $-54.40
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:25pm ET $54.30 277 $15,041.10
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $54.65 277 $15,136.67 $15,141.68 +$95.57
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $57.10 265 $15,131.08
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 1:00pm ET $57.58 265 $15,258.70 $15,269.31 +$127.62
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 3:40pm ET $56.91 268 $15,251.88
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $57.48 268 $15,404.64 $15,422.07 +$152.76
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $55.51 277 $15,376.27
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 12:25pm ET $54.13 277 $14,994.01 $15,039.81 $-382.26
(-2.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $55.37 271 $15,005.27
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $55.75 271 $15,108.25 $15,142.79 +$102.98
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,142.79
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,142.79
Total Return: +51.43%
Back to Professor Mean