Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:34:01

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.4/35
Total Return
7.1/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 19.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 19.7

30-Day Momentum

10
-7.0%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.6 Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,415.70
Current Value
$10,914.91
Period P&L
$-500.83
Max Drawdown
-50.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
6 / 7
Best Trade
+2.77%
Worst Trade
-8.01%
Avg Trade Return
-0.31%
Avg Hold Time
5.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$282,852.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-500.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-500.83
Gross Return
-4.39%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.39%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,415.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 1:55pm ET $21.13 540 $11,410.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:05pm ET $21.31 540 $11,504.70 $11,510.24 +$94.50
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $20.57 559 $11,495.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $21.03 559 $11,757.45 $11,771.85 +$261.61
(+2.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $20.53 573 $11,766.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 2:20pm ET $18.89 573 $10,823.97 $10,829.26 $-942.59
(-8.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $18.29 592 $10,827.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $18.01 592 $10,661.92 $10,663.50 $-165.76
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $18.63 572 $10,656.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $18.80 572 $10,753.60 $10,760.74 +$97.24
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 3:20pm ET $22.39 480 $10,744.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $22.53 480 $10,814.40 $10,830.34 +$69.60
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $21.17 511 $10,817.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $21.13 511 $10,797.43 $10,809.90 $-20.44
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $21.48 503 $10,804.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:50pm ET $21.45 503 $10,789.35 $10,794.81 $-15.09
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $20.55 525 $10,788.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:20am ET $20.23 525 $10,618.13 $10,624.19 $-170.62
(-1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:25pm ET $20.39 521 $10,620.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $20.35 521 $10,604.95 $10,608.56 $-15.63
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 11:55am ET $24.59 431 $10,600.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $24.45 431 $10,540.10 $10,548.22 $-60.34
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:10pm ET $24.63 428 $10,539.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 3:50pm ET $24.80 428 $10,612.26 $10,620.98 +$72.76
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $23.99 442 $10,603.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 10:30am ET $24.66 442 $10,897.51 $10,914.91 +$293.93
(+2.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,914.91
Net Profit/Loss: +$914.91
Total Return: +9.15%
Back to Professor Mean