Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:28:15

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 10.4/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 10.4

30-Day Momentum

10
-8.3%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.6 Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$7,943.39
Current Value
$7,283.43
Period P&L
$-659.93
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.54

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
5 / 7
Best Trade
+1.15%
Worst Trade
-3.63%
Avg Trade Return
-0.71%
Avg Hold Time
9.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$186,030.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-659.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-659.93
Gross Return
-8.31%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $7,943.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:25pm ET $16.72 474 $7,927.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET $16.86 474 $7,991.64 $8,007.48 +$64.13
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $16.54 484 $8,005.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $16.30 484 $7,889.20 $7,891.32 $-116.16
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET $16.00 493 $7,886.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 3:50pm ET $16.03 493 $7,901.41 $7,906.70 +$15.38
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $15.45 511 $7,897.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 12:45pm ET $15.53 511 $7,935.83 $7,945.03 +$38.32
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $15.81 502 $7,937.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:05am ET $15.73 502 $7,898.97 $7,906.88 $-38.15
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET $16.07 492 $7,906.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET $16.25 492 $7,997.46 $7,997.90 +$91.02
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:35pm ET $16.23 492 $7,982.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $15.90 492 $7,822.80 $7,838.00 $-159.90
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $15.71 498 $7,823.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:25am ET $15.52 498 $7,726.47 $7,740.89 $-97.11
(-1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $15.23 508 $7,734.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:35pm ET $15.01 508 $7,625.08 $7,631.67 $-109.22
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $15.57 490 $7,629.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 12:20pm ET $15.01 490 $7,352.45 $7,354.82 $-276.85
(-3.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $15.38 478 $7,351.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 12:45pm ET $15.19 478 $7,263.21 $7,266.39 $-88.43
(-1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $14.91 487 $7,263.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:55pm ET $14.95 487 $7,280.65 $7,283.43 +$17.04
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,283.43
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,716.57
Total Return: -27.17%
Back to Professor Mean