Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:20:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
38.5 neutral
20d Trend
-12.5%
5d Trend
-40.4%
EMA20 Dist
-22.1%
ATR%
14.8%
Range Pos
32%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
9.4/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 27.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 27.3

30-Day Momentum

74
+8.5%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
14
Trades
8.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 76.1 Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+47 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,373.03
Current Value
$11,257.06
Period P&L
$883.91
Max Drawdown
-25.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.69

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
13 / 2
Best Trade
+2.89%
Worst Trade
-0.69%
Avg Trade Return
+0.57%
Avg Hold Time
10.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$324,351.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$883.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$883.91
Gross Return
+8.52%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.52%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SLV Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,373.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $62.72 164 $10,286.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $62.87 164 $10,310.68 $10,373.15 +$23.78
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $61.26 169 $10,352.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:35am ET $61.63 169 $10,414.63 $10,434.84 +$61.69
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 11:05am ET $61.15 170 $10,396.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:40am ET $61.52 170 $10,458.40 $10,496.89 +$62.05
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 2:05pm ET $62.44 168 $10,490.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $62.72 168 $10,536.96 $10,543.09 +$46.20
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:20am ET $59.74 176 $10,515.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:40am ET $59.98 176 $10,556.46 $10,584.43 +$41.34
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $58.26 181 $10,545.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $58.97 181 $10,672.67 $10,712.04 +$127.61
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:10pm ET $60.49 177 $10,705.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:30pm ET $60.50 177 $10,708.52 $10,714.71 +$2.67
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $59.47 180 $10,704.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $61.19 180 $11,014.20 $11,024.31 +$309.60
(+2.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $58.36 188 $10,971.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 11:20am ET $58.33 188 $10,966.04 $11,018.67 $-5.64
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $57.90 190 $11,001.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 12:35pm ET $58.21 190 $11,058.97 $11,075.69 +$57.02
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:10pm ET $57.40 192 $11,020.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 192 $11,032.32 $11,087.21 +$11.52
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $58.15 190 $11,047.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 1:30pm ET $58.27 190 $11,071.28 $11,110.94 +$23.73
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:35pm ET $59.04 188 $11,099.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $60.07 188 $11,293.16 $11,304.56 +$193.62
(+1.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.9h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:05am ET $59.58 189 $11,259.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 11:10am ET $59.74 189 $11,289.92 $11,334.80 +$30.24
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $58.97 192 $11,323.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:00am ET $58.57 192 $11,245.46 $11,257.06 $-77.74
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,257.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,257.06
Total Return: +12.57%
Back to Professor Mean