Compendium › Professor Mean › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 14 trades in period

+9.49%
Last Month Return
$7,401.65
Current Value
79%
Win Rate
$6,759.80
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:03:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 14.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 14.9

30-Day Momentum

69
+9.5%
30d Return
79%
Win Rate
14
Trades
2.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 70.4 Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+54 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,759.80
Current Value
$7,401.65
Period P&L
$641.82
Max Drawdown
-55.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
11 / 3
Best Trade
+3.72%
Worst Trade
-3.87%
Avg Trade Return
+0.67%
Avg Hold Time
11.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$204,095.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$641.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$641.82
Gross Return
+9.49%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $6,759.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 1:00pm ET $38.07 177 $6,738.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:45pm ET $38.23 177 $6,767.42 $6,788.86 +$29.03
(+0.4%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 2:30pm ET $37.35 181 $6,760.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $38.74 181 $7,011.94 $7,040.45 +$251.59
(+3.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
19h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $37.90 185 $7,011.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $38.37 185 $7,098.45 $7,127.40 +$86.95
(+1.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET $36.24 196 $7,103.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET $37.25 196 $7,301.47 $7,325.83 +$198.43
(+2.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $36.31 201 $7,299.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 2:50pm ET $36.42 201 $7,321.42 $7,347.94 +$22.11
(+0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $36.14 203 $7,336.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:55am ET $36.80 203 $7,470.40 $7,481.92 +$133.98
(+1.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:30pm ET $40.15 186 $7,466.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $39.72 186 $7,387.92 $7,402.87 $-79.05
(-1.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $39.84 185 $7,370.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:30am ET $40.04 185 $7,408.32 $7,440.79 +$37.92
(+0.5%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $38.12 195 $7,433.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $38.40 195 $7,488.00 $7,495.39 +$54.60
(+0.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $37.62 199 $7,486.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:25am ET $37.49 199 $7,460.51 $7,469.52 $-25.87
(-0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET $35.79 208 $7,444.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $36.56 208 $7,604.48 $7,629.33 +$159.81
(+2.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $40.26 189 $7,609.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 11:45am ET $38.70 189 $7,314.30 $7,334.49 $-294.84
(-3.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 10:20am ET $40.77 179 $7,297.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET $41.05 179 $7,347.95 $7,384.74 +$50.25
(+0.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 12:40pm ET $41.40 178 $7,369.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:15pm ET $41.49 178 $7,386.11 $7,401.65 +$16.91
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,401.65
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,598.35
Total Return: -25.98%
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