Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:12:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.0/35
Total Return
12.3/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 32.6/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 32.4

30-Day Momentum

61
+6.1%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
3.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 64.2 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,210.94
Current Value
$12,870.12
Period P&L
$659.21
Max Drawdown
-26.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+4.01%
Worst Trade
-1.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$354,509.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$659.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$659.21
Gross Return
+5.40%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,210.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $18.87 647 $12,210.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 11:25am ET $18.86 647 $12,205.65 $12,206.45 $-4.46
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:25pm ET $17.82 685 $12,203.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 12:55pm ET $17.88 685 $12,244.38 $12,247.55 +$41.10
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:30pm ET $17.09 716 $12,234.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 2:40pm ET $16.99 716 $12,164.98 $12,177.67 $-69.88
(-0.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.83 682 $12,163.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $18.55 682 $12,651.17 $12,665.37 +$487.70
(+4.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $18.09 699 $12,648.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:05am ET $18.13 699 $12,673.01 $12,689.97 +$24.60
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:40pm ET $18.03 703 $12,678.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 3:50pm ET $18.01 703 $12,664.54 $12,675.91 $-14.06
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $17.04 743 $12,660.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:25am ET $17.36 743 $12,898.48 $12,913.67 +$237.76
(+1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:40pm ET $17.25 748 $12,903.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:05pm ET $17.28 748 $12,929.18 $12,939.85 +$26.18
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $17.34 746 $12,935.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:40am ET $17.17 746 $12,805.09 $12,809.30 $-130.55
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:20pm ET $16.83 760 $12,794.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $16.85 760 $12,806.00 $12,820.70 +$11.40
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET $16.72 767 $12,820.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $16.78 767 $12,874.09 $12,874.39 +$53.69
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 12:40pm ET $16.95 759 $12,865.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:50pm ET $16.97 759 $12,876.44 $12,885.77 +$11.38
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 2:20pm ET $17.11 752 $12,870.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 3:00pm ET $17.20 752 $12,936.73 $12,952.02 +$66.25
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 3:50pm ET $16.58 780 $12,936.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $16.48 780 $12,854.40 $12,870.12 $-81.90
(-0.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,870.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,870.12
Total Return: +28.70%
Back to Professor Mean