Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:07:22

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
8.2/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 21.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 21.1

30-Day Momentum

17
-2.5%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1 Conf: 0.95×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,142.08
Current Value
$10,864.22
Period P&L
$-277.77
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+0.77%
Worst Trade
-2.42%
Avg Trade Return
-0.18%
Avg Hold Time
5.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$310,150.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-277.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$-277.77
Gross Return
-2.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,142.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $34.60 322 $11,141.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:25am ET $34.87 322 $11,226.53 $11,227.35 +$85.36
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $34.67 323 $11,198.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:00pm ET $34.54 323 $11,156.90 $11,185.85 $-41.50
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $33.96 329 $11,171.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $34.09 329 $11,215.61 $11,230.26 +$44.41
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 1:40pm ET $34.74 323 $11,219.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET $34.76 323 $11,227.48 $11,238.33 +$8.07
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $35.28 318 $11,217.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET $34.91 318 $11,100.52 $11,121.40 $-116.93
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:55pm ET $33.77 329 $11,110.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:15pm ET $33.76 329 $11,107.04 $11,118.11 $-3.29
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:10pm ET $35.23 315 $11,097.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $35.29 315 $11,116.32 $11,136.95 +$18.84
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $35.06 317 $11,114.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $34.86 317 $11,051.16 $11,074.09 $-62.86
(-0.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 11:45am ET $35.40 312 $11,046.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $35.41 312 $11,047.92 $11,075.65 +$1.56
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $35.79 309 $11,059.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $35.81 309 $11,063.75 $11,080.28 +$4.63
(+0.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $35.53 311 $11,049.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 11:05am ET $35.64 311 $11,084.04 $11,114.46 +$34.18
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET $35.44 313 $11,093.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $34.58 313 $10,825.10 $10,846.41 $-268.05
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:50pm ET $33.56 323 $10,841.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $33.61 323 $10,856.13 $10,861.04 +$14.63
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 12:20pm ET $34.13 318 $10,854.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 1:35pm ET $34.15 318 $10,858.11 $10,864.22 +$3.18
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,864.22
Net Profit/Loss: +$864.22
Total Return: +8.64%
Back to Professor Mean