Compendium › Professor Mean › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 15 trades in period

-0.11%
Last Month Return
$9,992.43
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,003.07
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:44

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 12.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 12.3

30-Day Momentum

26
+0.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.7 Conf: 1.00×
Accelerating (+13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,003.07
Current Value
$9,992.43
Period P&L
$-10.73
Max Drawdown
-6.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
10 / 5
Best Trade
+0.57%
Worst Trade
-1.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
13.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$299,584.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-10.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-10.73
Gross Return
-0.11%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,003.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 3:15pm ET $82.59 120 $9,910.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $83.06 120 $9,967.20 $10,003.15 +$56.40
(+0.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $83.09 120 $9,970.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 12:50pm ET $83.20 120 $9,984.00 $10,016.51 +$13.36
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $83.10 120 $9,971.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $83.13 120 $9,975.60 $10,020.39 +$3.88
(+0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:25pm ET $82.79 121 $10,018.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $82.38 121 $9,967.98 $9,970.17 $-50.22
(-0.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $82.00 121 $9,922.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:25am ET $82.28 121 $9,955.87 $10,003.44 +$33.26
(+0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:05am ET $81.76 122 $9,975.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $81.83 122 $9,983.26 $10,011.37 +$7.93
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:10pm ET $82.24 121 $9,950.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 2:15pm ET $82.26 121 $9,954.06 $10,015.00 +$3.63
(+0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:55pm ET $82.19 121 $9,945.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $82.44 121 $9,975.24 $10,044.65 +$29.65
(+0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:05am ET $81.72 122 $9,969.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $81.61 122 $9,955.81 $10,030.62 $-14.03
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:05pm ET $80.89 123 $9,950.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $81.31 123 $10,001.13 $10,081.67 +$51.05
(+0.5%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
19.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET $80.78 124 $10,016.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:55am ET $80.75 124 $10,013.00 $10,077.91 $-3.76
(-0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $80.53 125 $10,066.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:05pm ET $80.66 125 $10,083.00 $10,094.67 +$16.76
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $81.59 123 $10,035.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:35pm ET $81.65 123 $10,043.56 $10,102.67 +$8.00
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:35pm ET $81.65 123 $10,043.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:35pm ET $81.65 123 $10,043.42 $10,102.52 $-0.15
(-0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $81.48 123 $10,022.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 12:55pm ET $80.58 123 $9,911.95 $9,992.43 $-110.09
(-1.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,992.43
Net Profit/Loss: $-7.57
Total Return: -0.08%
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