Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
4.3/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 18.5

30-Day Momentum

19
-1.6%
30d Return
70%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.3 Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,282.36
Current Value
$10,230.38
Period P&L
$-52.02
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
8 / 3
Best Trade
+1.10%
Worst Trade
-1.73%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
9.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$218,050.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-52.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-52.02
Gross Return
-0.51%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.51%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,282.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $619.67 16 $9,914.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET $626.47 16 $10,023.52 $10,391.12 +$108.72
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:30pm ET $625.74 16 $10,011.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET $627.14 16 $10,034.24 $10,413.52 +$22.40
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $630.38 16 $10,086.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $637.04 16 $10,192.64 $10,520.08 +$106.56
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $626.87 16 $10,029.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 11:20am ET $622.46 16 $9,959.28 $10,449.44 $-70.64
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $613.09 17 $10,422.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $602.50 17 $10,242.50 $10,269.33 $-180.11
(-1.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:25pm ET $609.42 16 $9,750.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $610.67 16 $9,770.72 $10,289.33 +$20.00
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:00pm ET $612.31 16 $9,796.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $602.18 16 $9,634.88 $10,127.25 $-162.08
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $600.38 16 $9,606.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:25am ET $603.53 16 $9,656.40 $10,177.57 +$50.32
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:15pm ET $610.92 16 $9,774.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:00pm ET $611.16 16 $9,778.48 $10,181.33 +$3.76
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $655.80 15 $9,837.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:35am ET $658.02 15 $9,870.30 $10,214.56 +$33.23
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 12:40pm ET $654.68 15 $9,820.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:30pm ET $655.74 15 $9,836.10 $10,230.38 +$15.82
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,230.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$230.38
Total Return: +2.30%
Back to Professor Mean