Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:04:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 11.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.7

30-Day Momentum

17
-2.8%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1 Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,149.82
Current Value
$7,993.00
Period P&L
$-156.89
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+0.76%
Worst Trade
-4.92%
Avg Trade Return
-0.18%
Avg Hold Time
6.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$220,303.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-156.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-156.89
Gross Return
-1.93%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,149.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 2:45pm ET $351.30 23 $8,079.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $350.78 23 $8,067.94 $8,183.46 $-11.96
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $343.58 23 $7,902.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 12:20pm ET $344.16 23 $7,915.68 $8,196.80 +$13.34
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET $351.67 23 $8,088.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 11:00am ET $354.34 23 $8,149.82 $8,258.13 +$61.33
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $356.14 23 $8,191.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $354.26 23 $8,147.98 $8,215.01 $-43.13
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET $352.30 23 $8,102.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET $354.62 23 $8,156.26 $8,268.48 +$53.47
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:35pm ET $381.57 21 $8,012.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $362.78 21 $7,618.38 $7,873.89 $-394.59
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET $368.25 21 $7,733.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:50am ET $370.61 21 $7,782.71 $7,923.35 +$49.46
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 3:15pm ET $364.66 21 $7,657.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $365.34 21 $7,672.14 $7,937.63 +$14.28
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $361.46 21 $7,590.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:25am ET $360.44 21 $7,569.24 $7,916.21 $-21.42
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $358.96 22 $7,897.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $356.93 22 $7,852.46 $7,871.55 $-44.66
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET $364.20 21 $7,648.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:45am ET $366.23 21 $7,690.83 $7,914.18 +$42.63
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $372.80 21 $7,828.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:50pm ET $373.96 21 $7,853.26 $7,938.54 +$24.36
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 12:50pm ET $378.65 20 $7,573.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:40pm ET $379.85 20 $7,597.01 $7,962.55 +$24.01
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $378.40 21 $7,946.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:00pm ET $379.85 21 $7,976.85 $7,993.00 +$30.45
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,993.00
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,007.00
Total Return: -20.07%
Back to Professor Mean