Compendium › Professor Mean › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-09 to present • 13 trades in period

-6.78%
Last Month Return
$9,244.00
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$9,915.83
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-09 07:35:30

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 9, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 10.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 10.9

30-Day Momentum

10
-6.8%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.95×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-09 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,915.83
Current Value
$9,244.00
Period P&L
$-671.83
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.52

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
5 / 8
Best Trade
+0.30%
Worst Trade
-3.45%
Avg Trade Return
-0.54%
Avg Hold Time
3.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$248,854.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-671.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-671.83
Gross Return
-6.78%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,915.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET $58.35 169 $9,861.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $57.33 169 $9,687.93 $9,741.76 $-174.07
(-1.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $56.79 171 $9,711.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET $56.92 171 $9,733.32 $9,763.14 +$21.38
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $56.35 173 $9,749.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $55.61 173 $9,620.58 $9,634.31 $-128.83
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET $55.56 173 $9,612.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $55.39 173 $9,582.47 $9,604.04 $-30.27
(-0.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:05pm ET $56.55 169 $9,556.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:15pm ET $56.60 169 $9,564.56 $9,611.65 +$7.61
(+0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $55.31 173 $9,567.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $55.27 173 $9,561.71 $9,605.60 $-6.05
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $56.87 168 $9,554.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET $56.76 168 $9,536.52 $9,587.96 $-17.64
(-0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $57.75 166 $9,586.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 2:30pm ET $57.76 166 $9,587.33 $9,588.79 +$0.83
(+0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 2:35pm ET $58.68 163 $9,564.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:15pm ET $58.83 163 $9,589.27 $9,613.22 +$24.43
(+0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
10 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $59.13 162 $9,579.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:00am ET $59.00 162 $9,558.00 $9,592.16 $-21.06
(-0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
11 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $59.16 162 $9,583.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $59.33 162 $9,612.27 $9,620.51 +$28.35
(+0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
12 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $59.51 161 $9,581.91 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 161 $9,251.06 $9,289.65 $-330.86
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
13 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $55.74 166 $9,252.01 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 11:05am ET $55.46 166 $9,206.36 $9,244.00 $-45.65
(-0.5%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,244.00
Net Profit/Loss: $-756.00
Total Return: -7.56%
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