Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.3/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 39.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 38.4

30-Day Momentum

15
-1.3%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.5 Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,919.83
Current Value
$12,800.42
Period P&L
$-119.41
Max Drawdown
-11.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
7 / 4
Best Trade
+0.56%
Worst Trade
-2.67%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
6.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$280,013.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-119.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-119.41
Gross Return
-0.92%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.92%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,919.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET $186.77 69 $12,887.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:55am ET $187.35 69 $12,927.14 $12,959.84 +$40.01
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET $186.92 69 $12,897.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $186.16 69 $12,845.38 $12,907.74 $-52.10
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $183.37 70 $12,835.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $183.21 70 $12,824.70 $12,896.54 $-11.20
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $182.35 70 $12,764.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET $183.38 70 $12,836.60 $12,968.64 +$72.10
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $185.39 69 $12,791.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:40am ET $186.07 69 $12,838.83 $13,015.56 +$46.92
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 3:10pm ET $187.91 69 $12,966.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $182.89 69 $12,619.41 $12,668.84 $-346.72
(-2.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $183.80 68 $12,498.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:00pm ET $183.96 68 $12,509.28 $12,679.72 +$10.88
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $184.68 68 $12,557.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET $185.42 68 $12,608.34 $12,730.16 +$50.44
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET $187.72 67 $12,577.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 11:20am ET $187.99 67 $12,595.31 $12,748.42 +$18.26
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET $195.42 65 $12,702.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:55am ET $195.40 65 $12,701.00 $12,747.12 $-1.30
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $193.66 65 $12,587.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 2:30pm ET $194.48 65 $12,641.20 $12,800.42 +$53.30
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,800.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,800.42
Total Return: +28.00%
Back to Professor Mean