AAPL Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 34 trades in period
-2.27%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,338.61
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$11,602.55
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
69.1 neutral
20d Trend
+5.2%
5d Trend
+6.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.1%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
69%
Bounce Ratio
8.0×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
9.6/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
28.4/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 28.0
30-Day Momentum
17
-5.8%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9
Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,976
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,602.55
Current Value
$11,338.61
Period P&L
$-263.93
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
22 /
12
Best Trade
+2.59%
Worst Trade
-6.19%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
8.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$790,377.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-263.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-263.93
Gross Return
-2.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.27%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AAPL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,602.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.21 | 46 | $11,555.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $252.16 | 46 | $11,599.36 | $11,646.24 |
+$43.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:40pm ET | $253.68 | 45 | $11,415.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $252.85 | 45 | $11,378.25 | $11,608.89 |
$-37.35 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $250.78 | 46 | $11,535.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $249.05 | 46 | $11,456.30 | $11,529.31 |
$-79.58 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $254.23 | 45 | $11,440.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $254.71 | 45 | $11,461.95 | $11,551.14 |
+$21.83 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $258.54 | 44 | $11,375.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $259.03 | 44 | $11,397.32 | $11,572.70 |
+$21.56 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $250.70 | 46 | $11,532.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $252.11 | 46 | $11,597.06 | $11,637.52 |
+$64.82 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $256.18 | 45 | $11,528.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $257.83 | 45 | $11,602.57 | $11,711.77 |
+$74.25 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:55am ET | $260.90 | 44 | $11,479.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $259.97 | 44 | $11,438.68 | $11,670.85 |
$-40.92 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $264.02 | 44 | $11,616.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $262.57 | 44 | $11,553.08 | $11,607.05 |
$-63.80 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $270.67 | 42 | $11,368.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $270.53 | 42 | $11,362.26 | $11,601.17 |
$-5.88 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $272.69 | 42 | $11,452.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $270.98 | 42 | $11,380.95 | $11,529.14 |
$-72.03 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $272.66 | 42 | $11,451.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $273.07 | 42 | $11,468.94 | $11,546.35 |
+$17.21 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.92 | 43 | $11,434.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $267.64 | 43 | $11,508.52 | $11,620.31 |
+$73.96 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $267.58 | 43 | $11,505.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $269.69 | 43 | $11,596.50 | $11,710.87 |
+$90.56 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $271.91 | 43 | $11,692.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $278.94 | 43 | $11,994.42 | $12,013.16 |
+$302.29 (+2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.65 | 42 | $11,745.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $276.86 | 42 | $11,628.33 | $11,895.98 |
$-117.18 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $281.92 | 42 | $11,840.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $284.69 | 42 | $11,956.98 | $12,012.53 |
+$116.55 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $289.37 | 41 | $11,864.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 1:25pm ET | $289.38 | 41 | $11,864.58 | $12,012.94 |
+$0.41 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.05 | 41 | $11,974.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $292.55 | 41 | $11,994.55 | $12,033.44 |
+$20.50 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $297.68 | 40 | $11,907.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $298.69 | 40 | $11,947.60 | $12,073.84 |
+$40.40 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 2:20pm ET | $301.20 | 40 | $12,048.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $298.34 | 40 | $11,933.60 | $11,959.24 |
$-114.60 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:30pm ET | $297.83 | 40 | $11,913.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:15pm ET | $298.37 | 40 | $11,934.78 | $11,980.82 |
+$21.58 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.36 | 39 | $11,753.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $302.88 | 39 | $11,812.32 | $12,039.91 |
+$59.09 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $308.71 | 39 | $12,039.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $309.40 | 39 | $12,066.60 | $12,066.68 |
+$26.77 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $310.22 | 38 | $11,788.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $310.68 | 38 | $11,805.84 | $12,084.16 |
+$17.48 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $311.42 | 38 | $11,833.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $311.49 | 38 | $11,836.62 | $12,086.82 |
+$2.66 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $306.30 | 39 | $11,945.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $309.65 | 39 | $12,076.52 | $12,217.83 |
+$131.01 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $313.36 | 38 | $11,907.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $309.60 | 38 | $11,764.70 | $12,075.04 |
$-142.79 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 12:20pm ET | $312.12 | 38 | $11,860.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $311.84 | 38 | $11,849.92 | $12,064.44 |
$-10.60 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $309.14 | 39 | $12,056.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $290.01 | 39 | $11,310.39 | $11,318.37 |
$-746.07 (-6.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
23.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $293.49 | 38 | $11,152.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $292.23 | 38 | $11,104.74 | $11,270.49 |
$-47.88 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $295.98 | 38 | $11,247.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 2:45pm ET | $296.21 | 38 | $11,255.98 | $11,279.04 |
+$8.55 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $297.47 | 37 | $11,006.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $298.59 | 37 | $11,047.83 | $11,320.48 |
+$41.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 2:05pm ET | $298.67 | 37 | $11,050.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $299.16 | 37 | $11,068.92 | $11,338.61 |
+$18.13 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,338.61
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,338.61
Total Return:
+13.39%