Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:35:17

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.2 oversold
20d Trend
-17.1%
5d Trend
-11.3%
EMA20 Dist
-10.7%
ATR%
4.7%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 12.2/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 11.6

30-Day Momentum

39
+4.7%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.0 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,573.00
Current Value
$8,877.92
Period P&L
$304.97
Max Drawdown
-15.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
17 / 15
Best Trade
+4.63%
Worst Trade
-3.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
3.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$531,510.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$304.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$304.97
Gross Return
+3.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ACN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 32 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,573.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 12:30pm ET $179.24 47 $8,424.28
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 12:55pm ET $179.99 47 $8,459.53 $8,608.20 +$35.25
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:05pm ET $178.82 48 $8,583.36
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 1:25pm ET $179.45 48 $8,613.36 $8,638.20 +$30.00
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $178.10 48 $8,548.80
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:30am ET $177.28 48 $8,509.44 $8,598.84 $-39.36
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
4 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 3:20pm ET $179.41 47 $8,432.27
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 3:45pm ET $178.85 47 $8,405.95 $8,572.52 $-26.32
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
5 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $175.95 48 $8,445.36
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:50am ET $176.14 48 $8,454.48 $8,581.64 +$9.12
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
6 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 1:35pm ET $175.51 48 $8,424.72
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $176.64 48 $8,478.72 $8,635.64 +$54.00
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
7 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $178.02 48 $8,544.96
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:35am ET $172.77 48 $8,292.96 $8,383.64 $-252.00
(-2.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
8 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:40am ET $178.40 46 $8,206.40
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:10am ET $173.04 46 $7,960.07 $8,137.31 $-246.33
(-3.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1d held
9 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:55am ET $157.46 51 $8,030.71
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $157.28 51 $8,021.28 $8,127.88 $-9.43
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
10 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:25am ET $180.07 45 $8,103.15
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 2:20pm ET $177.39 45 $7,982.55 $8,007.28 $-120.60
(-1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held
11 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $175.50 45 $7,897.50
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:35am ET $175.21 45 $7,884.45 $7,994.23 $-13.05
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
12 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $175.23 45 $7,885.13
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $175.05 45 $7,877.25 $7,986.35 $-7.88
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
13 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:50am ET $176.79 45 $7,955.55
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:05am ET $177.81 45 $8,001.45 $8,032.25 +$45.90
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
14 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 1:20pm ET $178.24 45 $8,020.80
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $178.76 45 $8,044.20 $8,055.65 +$23.40
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 2:25pm ET $195.96 41 $8,034.36
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 2:50pm ET $196.65 41 $8,062.65 $8,083.94 +$28.29
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $182.93 44 $8,048.92
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $181.71 44 $7,995.02 $8,030.04 $-53.90
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:55pm ET $179.39 44 $7,893.16
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:05pm ET $178.77 44 $7,865.88 $8,002.76 $-27.28
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $176.00 45 $7,920.00
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:50am ET $179.18 45 $8,063.10 $8,145.86 +$143.10
(+1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET $168.68 48 $8,096.64
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET $172.15 48 $8,263.20 $8,312.42 +$166.56
(+2.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $167.92 49 $8,228.08
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $169.55 49 $8,307.95 $8,392.29 +$79.87
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:20am ET $168.80 49 $8,271.20
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:40am ET $170.18 49 $8,338.82 $8,459.91 +$67.62
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $167.01 50 $8,350.25
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 2:25pm ET $165.94 50 $8,297.00 $8,406.66 $-53.25
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $126.50 66 $8,349.00
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET $132.00 66 $8,712.00 $8,769.66 +$363.00
(+4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET $123.97 70 $8,677.90
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 11:45am ET $122.57 70 $8,579.90 $8,671.66 $-98.00
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 1:40pm ET $126.10 68 $8,574.80
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 2:50pm ET $126.06 68 $8,572.08 $8,668.94 $-2.72
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 3:45pm ET $129.83 66 $8,568.78
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $126.97 66 $8,380.35 $8,480.51 $-188.43
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:25am ET $126.46 67 $8,472.82
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $127.39 67 $8,535.13 $8,542.82 +$62.31
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:00pm ET $124.89 68 $8,492.86
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:10pm ET $125.38 68 $8,525.84 $8,575.80 +$32.98
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
29 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $132.59 64 $8,485.76
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $133.28 64 $8,529.92 $8,619.96 +$44.16
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
30 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $134.40 64 $8,601.28
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:50am ET $135.61 64 $8,679.04 $8,697.72 +$77.76
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
31 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 3:05pm ET $142.63 60 $8,558.10
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $139.10 60 $8,345.70 $8,485.32 $-212.40
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
32 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $130.40 65 $8,476.00
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:15am ET $136.44 65 $8,868.60 $8,877.92 +$392.60
(+4.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,877.92
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,122.08
Total Return: -11.22%
Back to Professor Mean