Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.2 oversold
20d Trend
-17.1%
5d Trend
-11.3%
EMA20 Dist
-10.7%
ATR%
4.7%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.1/35
Total Return
6.4/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 20.7/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 20.6

30-Day Momentum

76
+10.3%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
3.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 80.3 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+56 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,668.99
Current Value
$10,531.86
Period P&L
$1,862.92
Max Drawdown
-15.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
27 / 12
Best Trade
+5.97%
Worst Trade
-2.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.52%
Avg Hold Time
7.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$718,521.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,862.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,862.92
Gross Return
+21.49%
Net Return (after fees)
+21.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ACN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,668.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 3:45pm ET $129.83 66 $8,568.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $126.97 66 $8,380.35 $8,480.51 $-188.43
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:25am ET $126.46 67 $8,472.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $127.39 67 $8,535.13 $8,542.82 +$62.31
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:00pm ET $124.89 68 $8,492.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:10pm ET $125.38 68 $8,525.84 $8,575.80 +$32.98
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $132.59 64 $8,485.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $133.28 64 $8,529.92 $8,619.96 +$44.16
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $134.40 64 $8,601.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:50am ET $135.61 64 $8,679.04 $8,697.72 +$77.76
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 3:05pm ET $142.63 60 $8,558.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $139.10 60 $8,345.70 $8,485.32 $-212.40
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $130.40 65 $8,476.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:15am ET $136.44 65 $8,868.60 $8,877.92 +$392.60
(+4.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 1:10pm ET $136.29 65 $8,858.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 2:45pm ET $135.15 65 $8,784.43 $8,803.50 $-74.42
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 3:35pm ET $137.97 63 $8,692.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $138.51 63 $8,726.13 $8,837.52 +$34.02
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $137.88 64 $8,824.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $138.43 64 $8,859.52 $8,872.71 +$35.20
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $140.85 62 $8,732.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 11:00am ET $142.13 62 $8,812.06 $8,952.07 +$79.36
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 11:10am ET $142.32 62 $8,823.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $140.79 62 $8,728.98 $8,857.21 $-94.86
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 1:55pm ET $139.01 63 $8,757.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 2:50pm ET $139.76 63 $8,805.19 $8,904.72 +$47.50
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 3:35pm ET $137.93 64 $8,827.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $138.74 64 $8,879.68 $8,956.88 +$52.16
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $155.87 57 $8,884.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $160.20 57 $9,131.40 $9,203.69 +$246.81
(+2.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $164.98 55 $9,073.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 11:10am ET $162.35 55 $8,928.98 $9,058.77 $-144.92
(-1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $165.90 54 $8,958.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $163.56 54 $8,832.24 $8,932.14 $-126.63
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $160.78 55 $8,842.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 10:40am ET $167.18 55 $9,194.90 $9,284.14 +$352.00
(+4.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:20pm ET $178.46 52 $9,279.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET $178.12 52 $9,261.98 $9,266.20 $-17.94
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:35am ET $177.88 52 $9,249.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:45am ET $177.12 52 $9,210.24 $9,226.68 $-39.52
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $176.22 52 $9,163.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 10:55am ET $176.51 52 $9,178.26 $9,241.50 +$14.82
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $171.85 53 $9,108.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 12:35pm ET $172.49 53 $9,141.71 $9,274.89 +$33.39
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 3:40pm ET $174.96 53 $9,272.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $178.26 53 $9,448.04 $9,450.05 +$175.16
(+1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $182.30 51 $9,297.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:45am ET $184.79 51 $9,424.29 $9,577.04 +$126.99
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 12:40pm ET $185.55 51 $9,463.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 3:35pm ET $184.28 51 $9,398.28 $9,512.27 $-64.77
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held
26 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $184.05 51 $9,386.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:25am ET $185.64 51 $9,467.64 $9,593.36 +$81.09
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
27 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:15pm ET $181.23 52 $9,423.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:20pm ET $181.88 52 $9,457.50 $9,626.90 +$33.54
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
28 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:50pm ET $186.93 51 $9,533.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $189.65 51 $9,672.40 $9,765.84 +$138.94
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
29 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:40am ET $188.40 51 $9,608.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET $187.99 51 $9,587.74 $9,745.44 $-20.40
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
30 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:50am ET $188.20 51 $9,597.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:30am ET $189.90 51 $9,684.90 $9,832.39 +$86.95
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
31 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 10:30am ET $186.08 52 $9,676.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 11:55am ET $186.63 52 $9,704.76 $9,860.99 +$28.60
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
32 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:40pm ET $194.25 50 $9,712.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $190.20 50 $9,510.00 $9,658.49 $-202.50
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held
33 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $178.00 54 $9,612.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:00am ET $179.44 54 $9,689.76 $9,736.25 +$77.76
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
34 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $176.20 55 $9,691.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET $177.63 55 $9,769.65 $9,814.90 +$78.65
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
35 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:05am ET $193.02 50 $9,651.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $194.45 50 $9,722.50 $9,886.40 +$71.50
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
36 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $189.51 52 $9,854.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $190.35 52 $9,898.20 $9,930.08 +$43.68
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
37 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:05pm ET $181.90 54 $9,822.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $192.76 54 $10,409.26 $10,516.47 +$586.39
(+6.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
38 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET $184.41 57 $10,511.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 11:15am ET $183.91 57 $10,482.87 $10,487.97 $-28.50
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
39 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 3:50pm ET $183.86 57 $10,480.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET $184.63 57 $10,523.91 $10,531.86 +$43.89
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,531.86
Net Profit/Loss: +$531.86
Total Return: +5.32%
Back to Professor Mean