ADBE Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 40 trades in period
-1.99%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,831.22
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$7,990.44
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
10.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.6
30-Day Momentum
20
-2.4%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.0
Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$7,990.44
Current Value
$7,831.22
Period P&L
$-159.18
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
23 /
17
Best Trade
+2.60%
Worst Trade
-4.08%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
7.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$615,259.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-159.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$-159.18
Gross Return
-1.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.99%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $7,990.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $197.54 | 41 | $8,099.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.92 | 41 | $7,950.72 | $7,990.41 |
$-148.42 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $200.03 | 39 | $7,801.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $200.57 | 39 | $7,822.23 | $8,011.47 |
+$21.06 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.85 | 39 | $7,989.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $203.59 | 39 | $7,939.82 | $7,962.14 |
$-49.33 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:20pm ET | $211.37 | 37 | $7,820.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $211.60 | 37 | $7,829.20 | $7,970.64 |
+$8.51 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.46 | 36 | $7,756.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $214.98 | 36 | $7,739.10 | $7,953.36 |
$-17.28 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:10pm ET | $226.54 | 35 | $7,928.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $219.79 | 35 | $7,692.65 | $7,717.28 |
$-236.08 (-3.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $223.72 | 34 | $7,606.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 2:30pm ET | $223.60 | 34 | $7,602.40 | $7,713.20 |
$-4.08 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $229.39 | 33 | $7,569.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $230.29 | 33 | $7,599.57 | $7,742.90 |
+$29.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET | $224.85 | 34 | $7,644.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 2:15pm ET | $224.38 | 34 | $7,629.09 | $7,727.09 |
$-15.81 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $237.57 | 32 | $7,602.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $229.41 | 32 | $7,341.12 | $7,465.81 |
$-261.28 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $229.98 | 32 | $7,359.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $229.44 | 32 | $7,342.08 | $7,448.53 |
$-17.28 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $225.00 | 33 | $7,425.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 12:30pm ET | $221.88 | 33 | $7,322.20 | $7,345.73 |
$-102.80 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 3:10pm ET | $212.26 | 34 | $7,216.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $211.29 | 34 | $7,184.03 | $7,313.09 |
$-32.64 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $239.26 | 30 | $7,177.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.48 | 30 | $7,364.40 | $7,499.84 |
+$186.75 (+2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $261.74 | 28 | $7,328.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $263.09 | 28 | $7,366.52 | $7,537.55 |
+$37.71 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.48 | 31 | $7,516.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $246.79 | 31 | $7,650.34 | $7,671.16 |
+$133.61 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $252.73 | 30 | $7,581.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $253.70 | 30 | $7,611.00 | $7,700.26 |
+$29.10 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.79 | 30 | $7,553.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $255.10 | 30 | $7,653.15 | $7,799.71 |
+$99.45 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $264.83 | 29 | $7,680.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:30pm ET | $265.13 | 29 | $7,688.77 | $7,808.41 |
+$8.70 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $269.63 | 28 | $7,549.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $270.87 | 28 | $7,584.36 | $7,843.13 |
+$34.72 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $255.65 | 30 | $7,669.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 2:35pm ET | $256.58 | 30 | $7,697.40 | $7,871.03 |
+$27.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $264.14 | 29 | $7,659.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $263.64 | 29 | $7,645.42 | $7,856.53 |
$-14.50 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $253.73 | 30 | $7,611.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $252.29 | 30 | $7,568.70 | $7,813.33 |
$-43.20 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $265.32 | 29 | $7,694.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $267.86 | 29 | $7,767.94 | $7,886.99 |
+$73.66 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $270.86 | 29 | $7,855.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $273.21 | 29 | $7,923.09 | $7,955.00 |
+$68.01 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $270.65 | 29 | $7,848.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $273.75 | 29 | $7,938.75 | $8,044.75 |
+$89.75 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $271.05 | 29 | $7,860.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $271.82 | 29 | $7,882.78 | $8,067.22 |
+$22.47 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET | $291.67 | 27 | $7,875.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 2:00pm ET | $292.56 | 27 | $7,899.12 | $8,091.25 |
+$24.03 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $291.30 | 27 | $7,865.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $293.20 | 27 | $7,916.40 | $8,142.55 |
+$51.30 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $283.37 | 28 | $7,934.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $287.07 | 28 | $8,037.96 | $8,246.12 |
+$103.57 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $285.24 | 28 | $7,986.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $285.81 | 28 | $8,002.68 | $8,262.08 |
+$15.96 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $267.83 | 30 | $8,034.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.90 | 30 | $7,707.00 | $7,934.18 |
$-327.90 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $255.82 | 31 | $7,930.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $255.99 | 31 | $7,935.54 | $7,939.29 |
+$5.11 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $249.51 | 31 | $7,734.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $247.81 | 31 | $7,682.11 | $7,886.59 |
$-52.70 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $262.98 | 29 | $7,626.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $263.57 | 29 | $7,643.60 | $7,903.63 |
+$17.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $258.92 | 30 | $7,767.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.30 | 30 | $7,629.15 | $7,765.18 |
$-138.45 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.90 | 31 | $7,653.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $249.43 | 31 | $7,732.33 | $7,843.61 |
+$78.43 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $247.96 | 31 | $7,686.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $248.51 | 31 | $7,703.81 | $7,860.50 |
+$16.89 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:25pm ET | $239.30 | 32 | $7,657.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:25pm ET | $239.00 | 32 | $7,648.00 | $7,850.90 |
$-9.60 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $238.15 | 32 | $7,620.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $237.54 | 32 | $7,601.28 | $7,831.22 |
$-19.68 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,831.22
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,168.78
Total Return:
-21.69%