AMZN Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 40 trades in period
-1.17%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,660.40
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$11,798.37
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.2/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
28.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 28.3
30-Day Momentum
17
+0.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.9
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,798.37
Current Value
$11,660.40
Period P&L
$-138.01
Max Drawdown
-15.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
20 /
20
Best Trade
+1.64%
Worst Trade
-1.32%
Avg Trade Return
-0.03%
Avg Hold Time
5.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$940,470.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-138.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-138.01
Gross Return
-1.17%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.17%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,798.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $233.85 | 50 | $11,692.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $236.90 | 50 | $11,845.25 | $11,951.41 |
+$153.00 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $226.23 | 52 | $11,763.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $229.44 | 52 | $11,930.88 | $12,118.33 |
+$166.92 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $231.08 | 52 | $12,016.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 2:20pm ET | $230.99 | 52 | $12,011.26 | $12,113.43 |
$-4.90 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $239.18 | 50 | $11,959.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $239.55 | 50 | $11,977.75 | $12,132.17 |
+$18.74 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $243.02 | 49 | $11,907.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $243.47 | 49 | $11,930.03 | $12,154.22 |
+$22.05 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $241.85 | 50 | $12,092.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $242.90 | 50 | $12,145.00 | $12,206.72 |
+$52.50 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $244.18 | 49 | $11,964.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $241.78 | 49 | $11,847.22 | $12,088.97 |
$-117.75 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $239.95 | 50 | $11,997.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $242.71 | 50 | $12,135.50 | $12,226.78 |
+$137.81 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $245.48 | 49 | $12,028.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $245.41 | 49 | $12,025.09 | $12,223.59 |
$-3.19 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $246.48 | 49 | $12,077.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $245.68 | 49 | $12,038.56 | $12,184.64 |
$-38.95 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 3:10pm ET | $254.10 | 47 | $11,942.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $255.21 | 47 | $11,994.64 | $12,236.34 |
+$51.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $249.25 | 49 | $12,213.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.95 | 49 | $12,051.55 | $12,074.64 |
$-161.70 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $250.83 | 48 | $12,039.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $249.14 | 48 | $11,958.72 | $11,993.52 |
$-81.12 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $247.60 | 48 | $11,884.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.43 | 48 | $11,780.64 | $11,889.36 |
$-104.16 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $236.28 | 50 | $11,814.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $233.72 | 50 | $11,685.97 | $11,761.33 |
$-128.03 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $232.80 | 50 | $11,640.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $232.08 | 50 | $11,604.00 | $11,725.08 |
$-36.25 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:45pm ET | $231.41 | 50 | $11,570.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:10am ET | $229.76 | 50 | $11,488.00 | $11,642.33 |
$-82.75 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:25pm ET | $229.60 | 50 | $11,480.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $233.36 | 50 | $11,668.00 | $11,830.33 |
+$188.00 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $276.73 | 42 | $11,622.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $278.14 | 42 | $11,682.09 | $11,889.76 |
+$59.43 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $274.63 | 43 | $11,809.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $271.95 | 43 | $11,693.85 | $11,774.52 |
$-115.24 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 2:40pm ET | $271.24 | 43 | $11,663.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $271.80 | 43 | $11,687.61 | $11,798.82 |
+$24.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $274.50 | 42 | $11,528.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $272.01 | 42 | $11,424.42 | $11,694.39 |
$-104.43 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:50pm ET | $268.13 | 43 | $11,529.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $268.64 | 43 | $11,551.52 | $11,716.21 |
+$21.82 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $263.25 | 44 | $11,583.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:05pm ET | $263.66 | 44 | $11,601.04 | $11,734.25 |
+$18.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $258.80 | 45 | $11,646.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $260.04 | 45 | $11,701.80 | $11,789.87 |
+$55.62 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $262.67 | 44 | $11,557.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:55am ET | $261.49 | 44 | $11,505.78 | $11,738.08 |
$-51.79 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $261.93 | 44 | $11,524.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $262.62 | 44 | $11,555.28 | $11,768.44 |
+$30.36 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 2:20pm ET | $259.93 | 45 | $11,696.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 2:40pm ET | $260.45 | 45 | $11,720.03 | $11,791.62 |
+$23.18 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $257.92 | 45 | $11,606.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $257.19 | 45 | $11,573.55 | $11,758.77 |
$-32.85 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.96 | 44 | $11,526.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 11:00am ET | $261.20 | 44 | $11,492.80 | $11,725.33 |
$-33.44 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $254.54 | 46 | $11,708.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 12:35pm ET | $255.02 | 46 | $11,730.92 | $11,747.64 |
+$22.31 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:55pm ET | $257.85 | 45 | $11,603.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $258.70 | 45 | $11,641.50 | $11,785.89 |
+$38.25 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.89 | 45 | $11,560.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $256.72 | 45 | $11,552.40 | $11,778.02 |
$-7.87 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $250.94 | 46 | $11,543.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $251.90 | 46 | $11,587.17 | $11,821.95 |
+$43.93 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $251.91 | 46 | $11,587.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.04 | 46 | $11,686.07 | $11,920.16 |
+$98.21 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $253.43 | 47 | $11,910.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $252.73 | 47 | $11,878.15 | $11,887.33 |
$-32.83 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $248.51 | 47 | $11,679.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:15pm ET | $248.91 | 47 | $11,699.00 | $11,906.36 |
+$19.03 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $246.71 | 48 | $11,842.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $246.04 | 48 | $11,810.16 | $11,874.44 |
$-31.92 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.09 | 46 | $11,780.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 1:05pm ET | $254.64 | 46 | $11,713.44 | $11,807.74 |
$-66.70 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 3:45pm ET | $249.08 | 47 | $11,706.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.95 | 47 | $11,559.42 | $11,660.40 |
$-147.34 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,660.40
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,660.40
Total Return:
+16.60%