ARKK Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 36 trades in period
+3.22%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,795.19
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$11,427.63
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality
29.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 29.6
30-Day Momentum
28
+0.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.7
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,427.63
Current Value
$11,795.19
Period P&L
$367.57
Max Drawdown
-16.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
20 /
16
Best Trade
+2.16%
Worst Trade
-1.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
4.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$835,180.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$367.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$367.57
Gross Return
+3.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,427.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:45pm ET | $76.35 | 149 | $11,376.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.57 | 149 | $11,408.93 | $11,460.40 |
+$32.78 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.23 | 142 | $11,392.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $79.89 | 142 | $11,344.38 | $11,412.12 |
$-48.28 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $82.24 | 138 | $11,348.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $82.15 | 138 | $11,336.70 | $11,400.39 |
$-11.73 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $83.57 | 136 | $11,364.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $83.49 | 136 | $11,354.64 | $11,390.19 |
$-10.20 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.82 | 142 | $11,334.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $79.18 | 142 | $11,243.56 | $11,299.31 |
$-90.88 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $81.53 | 138 | $11,251.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.65 | 138 | $11,405.70 | $11,453.87 |
+$154.56 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.41 | 144 | $11,435.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $79.23 | 144 | $11,409.12 | $11,427.95 |
$-25.92 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $79.43 | 143 | $11,359.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 3:10pm ET | $79.59 | 143 | $11,381.37 | $11,450.11 |
+$22.16 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.21 | 146 | $11,418.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $78.03 | 146 | $11,392.38 | $11,423.83 |
$-26.28 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.96 | 154 | $11,390.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $75.56 | 154 | $11,636.24 | $11,669.46 |
+$245.63 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $75.48 | 154 | $11,623.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.20 | 154 | $11,734.80 | $11,780.34 |
+$110.88 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $77.03 | 152 | $11,707.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $77.49 | 152 | $11,778.48 | $11,851.02 |
+$70.68 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $74.31 | 159 | $11,815.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $73.69 | 159 | $11,716.71 | $11,752.44 |
$-98.58 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:30pm ET | $71.95 | 163 | $11,727.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.03 | 163 | $11,903.89 | $11,928.48 |
+$176.04 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.89 | 168 | $11,909.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $71.22 | 168 | $11,964.96 | $11,983.92 |
+$55.44 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $70.76 | 169 | $11,958.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $70.97 | 169 | $11,993.93 | $12,019.41 |
+$35.49 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $71.83 | 167 | $11,995.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:55am ET | $70.55 | 167 | $11,781.85 | $11,805.65 |
$-213.76 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $76.33 | 154 | $11,754.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $76.53 | 154 | $11,784.85 | $11,835.68 |
+$30.03 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $79.98 | 147 | $11,757.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $80.52 | 147 | $11,836.44 | $11,915.06 |
+$79.38 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $81.74 | 145 | $11,852.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $81.14 | 145 | $11,764.58 | $11,827.34 |
$-87.72 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.89 | 148 | $11,823.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $79.52 | 148 | $11,768.96 | $11,772.58 |
$-54.76 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $83.21 | 141 | $11,732.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $82.98 | 141 | $11,700.18 | $11,740.29 |
$-32.29 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.74 | 138 | $11,694.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $83.84 | 138 | $11,569.92 | $11,616.09 |
$-124.20 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.43 | 135 | $11,533.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $85.34 | 135 | $11,520.90 | $11,603.26 |
$-12.83 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $87.49 | 132 | $11,548.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 2:00pm ET | $87.26 | 132 | $11,518.32 | $11,572.90 |
$-30.36 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.93 | 137 | $11,498.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:35am ET | $84.11 | 137 | $11,522.39 | $11,596.88 |
+$23.98 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET | $83.50 | 138 | $11,523.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 1:40pm ET | $83.61 | 138 | $11,538.18 | $11,612.06 |
+$15.18 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.84 | 135 | $11,588.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $86.17 | 135 | $11,632.95 | $11,656.61 |
+$44.55 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET | $86.33 | 135 | $11,654.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $85.23 | 135 | $11,506.05 | $11,508.11 |
$-148.50 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
21.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $83.27 | 138 | $11,491.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $83.30 | 138 | $11,495.40 | $11,512.25 |
+$4.14 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.70 | 139 | $11,495.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.80 | 139 | $11,648.20 | $11,665.15 |
+$152.90 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $84.08 | 138 | $11,603.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:10am ET | $83.66 | 138 | $11,545.08 | $11,607.19 |
$-57.96 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET | $83.63 | 138 | $11,540.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $83.81 | 138 | $11,565.78 | $11,632.03 |
+$24.84 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $90.50 | 128 | $11,583.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:45pm ET | $90.72 | 128 | $11,612.16 | $11,660.83 |
+$28.80 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $91.45 | 127 | $11,614.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $91.92 | 127 | $11,673.84 | $11,720.52 |
+$59.69 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $89.37 | 131 | $11,707.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $89.94 | 131 | $11,782.14 | $11,795.19 |
+$74.67 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,795.19
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,795.19
Total Return:
+17.95%