ARKK Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 38 trades in period
+4.37%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,422.47
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$10,944.06
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.4/35
Total Return
9.1/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality
27.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 26.7
30-Day Momentum
61
+6.7%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
11
Trades
4.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 67.7
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+34 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,977
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,944.06
Current Value
$11,422.47
Period P&L
$478.42
Max Drawdown
-16.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
23 /
15
Best Trade
+2.50%
Worst Trade
-3.39%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
7.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$814,476.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$478.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$478.42
Gross Return
+4.37%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.37%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,944.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $70.50 | 155 | $10,927.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $70.60 | 155 | $10,943.00 | $10,959.55 |
+$15.50 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $70.35 | 155 | $10,904.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:30pm ET | $70.19 | 155 | $10,879.45 | $10,934.75 |
$-24.80 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $68.14 | 160 | $10,903.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:40pm ET | $67.64 | 160 | $10,821.60 | $10,853.15 |
$-81.60 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $63.67 | 170 | $10,824.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $63.61 | 170 | $10,813.70 | $10,842.10 |
$-11.05 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $68.67 | 157 | $10,780.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $68.57 | 157 | $10,765.49 | $10,827.18 |
$-14.92 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $68.69 | 157 | $10,784.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $68.87 | 157 | $10,812.59 | $10,855.44 |
+$28.26 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $67.80 | 160 | $10,848.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $68.45 | 160 | $10,952.00 | $10,959.44 |
+$104.00 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $69.38 | 157 | $10,892.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $69.13 | 157 | $10,853.41 | $10,920.19 |
$-39.25 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $68.95 | 158 | $10,894.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:55pm ET | $69.04 | 158 | $10,908.32 | $10,934.41 |
+$14.22 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:05pm ET | $74.57 | 146 | $10,887.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $74.62 | 146 | $10,894.52 | $10,941.71 |
+$7.30 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $75.90 | 144 | $10,929.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $77.17 | 144 | $11,112.48 | $11,124.59 |
+$182.88 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $79.30 | 140 | $11,102.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $79.37 | 140 | $11,111.80 | $11,134.39 |
+$9.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $78.60 | 141 | $11,082.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:45pm ET | $78.63 | 141 | $11,086.83 | $11,138.62 |
+$4.23 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.49 | 141 | $11,066.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $77.91 | 141 | $10,985.31 | $11,057.55 |
$-81.07 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $76.51 | 144 | $11,018.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.09 | 144 | $10,812.96 | $10,852.35 |
$-205.20 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.14 | 146 | $10,824.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $73.41 | 146 | $10,717.86 | $10,745.77 |
$-106.58 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $76.87 | 139 | $10,684.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.50 | 139 | $10,772.50 | $10,833.34 |
+$87.57 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.07 | 138 | $10,772.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:55pm ET | $76.57 | 138 | $10,565.97 | $10,626.34 |
$-207.00 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:20am ET | $78.97 | 134 | $10,581.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $79.32 | 134 | $10,628.69 | $10,673.05 |
+$46.71 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $78.31 | 136 | $10,650.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $78.54 | 136 | $10,682.12 | $10,705.01 |
+$31.96 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $79.83 | 134 | $10,697.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 1:10pm ET | $77.12 | 134 | $10,334.08 | $10,341.87 |
$-363.14 (-3.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
21.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $78.11 | 132 | $10,311.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.71 | 132 | $10,258.38 | $10,289.07 |
$-52.80 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.44 | 134 | $10,242.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.88 | 134 | $10,167.92 | $10,214.03 |
$-75.04 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $74.73 | 136 | $10,163.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $75.70 | 136 | $10,295.20 | $10,345.95 |
+$131.92 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:50pm ET | $74.00 | 139 | $10,285.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.24 | 139 | $10,319.36 | $10,380.00 |
+$34.05 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.25 | 137 | $10,308.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $75.71 | 137 | $10,371.59 | $10,443.02 |
+$63.02 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 2:45pm ET | $76.80 | 135 | $10,368.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.21 | 135 | $10,423.35 | $10,498.36 |
+$55.34 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.61 | 135 | $10,478.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $78.01 | 135 | $10,531.35 | $10,551.69 |
+$53.33 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:20am ET | $80.40 | 131 | $10,532.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 10:55am ET | $80.85 | 131 | $10,591.35 | $10,610.64 |
+$58.95 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.59 | 131 | $10,557.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:10am ET | $80.00 | 131 | $10,479.35 | $10,532.70 |
$-77.94 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $78.02 | 135 | $10,532.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 1:05pm ET | $77.91 | 135 | $10,517.85 | $10,517.85 |
$-14.85 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $80.24 | 131 | $10,511.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $80.01 | 131 | $10,481.31 | $10,487.72 |
$-30.13 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $75.69 | 138 | $10,445.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.36 | 138 | $10,538.37 | $10,580.87 |
+$93.15 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.00 | 142 | $10,508.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $75.34 | 142 | $10,698.28 | $10,771.15 |
+$190.28 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:00pm ET | $72.96 | 147 | $10,725.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $74.21 | 147 | $10,908.87 | $10,954.17 |
+$183.02 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $75.17 | 145 | $10,898.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 2:40pm ET | $75.39 | 145 | $10,931.55 | $10,986.79 |
+$32.62 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $79.89 | 137 | $10,944.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $81.04 | 137 | $11,101.80 | $11,144.34 |
+$157.55 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.22 | 146 | $11,128.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $78.13 | 146 | $11,406.98 | $11,422.47 |
+$278.13 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,422.47
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,422.47
Total Return:
+14.22%