Compendium › Professor Mean › ARM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARM
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-04-26 to present • 27 trades in period

-11.14%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,795.49
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$12,148.89
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:33:25

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
7.9/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 21.5/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 20.3

30-Day Momentum

2
-7.4%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,148.89
Current Value
$10,795.49
Period P&L
$-1,353.39
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
13 / 14
Best Trade
+4.78%
Worst Trade
-5.65%
Avg Trade Return
-0.41%
Avg Hold Time
10h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$605,309.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,353.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,353.39
Gross Return
-11.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,148.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $224.49 54 $12,122.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:10am ET $214.25 54 $11,569.50 $11,595.92 $-552.96
(-4.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET $196.07 59 $11,568.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:20am ET $198.24 59 $11,695.87 $11,723.65 +$127.73
(+1.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:35pm ET $211.48 55 $11,631.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:50pm ET $210.57 55 $11,581.35 $11,673.60 $-50.05
(-0.4%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $207.96 56 $11,645.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:10am ET $204.56 56 $11,455.36 $11,483.20 $-190.40
(-1.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
5 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $222.65 51 $11,354.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 2:00pm ET $213.00 51 $10,863.00 $10,991.30 $-491.90
(-4.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
4.5h held
6 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $206.54 53 $10,946.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:00am ET $214.36 53 $11,361.08 $11,406.02 +$414.72
(+3.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
7 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:30am ET $208.93 54 $11,282.49 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 1:15pm ET $204.88 54 $11,063.25 $11,186.78 $-219.24
(-1.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held
8 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:30am ET $217.84 51 $11,109.84 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:30am ET $218.35 51 $11,136.10 $11,213.04 +$26.26
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
9 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 2:30pm ET $210.43 53 $11,152.79 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 3:15pm ET $211.42 53 $11,205.26 $11,265.51 +$52.47
(+0.5%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
10 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:20pm ET $254.29 44 $11,188.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 1:55pm ET $253.60 44 $11,158.40 $11,235.15 $-30.36
(-0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
11 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:25pm ET $303.75 36 $10,935.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $309.09 36 $11,127.24 $11,427.39 +$192.24
(+1.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held
12 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $313.26 36 $11,277.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $306.71 36 $11,041.56 $11,191.59 $-235.80
(-2.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
13 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 3:20pm ET $337.63 33 $11,141.79 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:35am ET $343.80 33 $11,345.24 $11,395.04 +$203.45
(+1.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $401.13 28 $11,231.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:15am ET $404.95 28 $11,338.60 $11,502.00 +$106.96
(+1.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET $394.01 29 $11,426.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:55pm ET $397.71 29 $11,533.59 $11,609.30 +$107.30
(+0.9%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $368.80 31 $11,432.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $362.77 31 $11,246.02 $11,422.37 $-186.93
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $346.95 32 $11,102.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 3:35pm ET $349.45 32 $11,182.40 $11,502.37 +$80.00
(+0.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:05am ET $314.52 36 $11,322.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $310.89 36 $11,191.86 $11,371.51 $-130.86
(-1.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $372.23 30 $11,167.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:10am ET $382.50 30 $11,475.00 $11,679.46 +$307.95
(+2.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $420.08 27 $11,342.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:10pm ET $426.11 27 $11,504.97 $11,842.27 +$162.81
(+1.4%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET $419.52 28 $11,746.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 12:45pm ET $408.74 28 $11,444.72 $11,540.43 $-301.84
(-2.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.1h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 2:45pm ET $364.55 31 $11,301.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $368.53 31 $11,424.43 $11,663.81 +$123.38
(+1.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $352.68 33 $11,638.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $332.77 33 $10,981.41 $11,006.78 $-657.03
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET $324.53 33 $10,709.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:50am ET $324.23 33 $10,699.43 $10,996.72 $-10.06
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 3:30pm ET $355.58 30 $10,667.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $336.45 30 $10,093.55 $10,423.02 $-573.70
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18h held
26 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET $318.09 32 $10,178.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $333.29 32 $10,665.28 $10,909.42 +$486.40
(+4.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $305.93 35 $10,707.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:55am ET $302.67 35 $10,593.62 $10,795.49 $-113.93
(-1.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,795.49
Net Profit/Loss: +$795.49
Total Return: +7.95%
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