ARM Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 38 trades in period
+0.99%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,778.83
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$11,663.82
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
27.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 27.2
30-Day Momentum
19
+0.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.8
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,663.82
Current Value
$11,778.83
Period P&L
$115.02
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
23 /
15
Best Trade
+4.78%
Worst Trade
-5.65%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
9.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$848,040.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$115.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$115.02
Gross Return
+0.99%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.99%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,663.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:20pm ET | $352.68 | 33 | $11,638.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $332.77 | 33 | $10,981.41 | $11,006.78 |
$-657.03 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $324.53 | 33 | $10,709.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $324.23 | 33 | $10,699.43 | $10,996.72 |
$-10.06 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $355.58 | 30 | $10,667.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $336.45 | 30 | $10,093.55 | $10,423.02 |
$-573.70 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $318.09 | 32 | $10,178.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $333.29 | 32 | $10,665.28 | $10,909.42 |
+$486.40 (+4.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.93 | 35 | $10,707.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $302.67 | 35 | $10,593.62 | $10,795.49 |
$-113.93 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $330.80 | 32 | $10,585.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $324.37 | 32 | $10,379.84 | $10,589.89 |
$-205.60 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.70 | 37 | $10,459.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $284.64 | 37 | $10,531.70 | $10,661.73 |
+$71.84 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $267.66 | 39 | $10,438.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET | $269.59 | 39 | $10,514.01 | $10,737.00 |
+$75.27 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.66 | 43 | $10,692.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $244.04 | 43 | $10,493.71 | $10,538.33 |
$-198.67 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $269.86 | 39 | $10,524.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.16 | 39 | $11,004.24 | $11,018.03 |
+$479.70 (+4.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $284.45 | 38 | $10,808.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $288.40 | 38 | $10,959.20 | $11,168.32 |
+$150.29 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $276.88 | 40 | $11,075.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $278.47 | 40 | $11,138.80 | $11,231.92 |
+$63.60 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $265.87 | 42 | $11,166.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $264.02 | 42 | $11,088.84 | $11,154.22 |
$-77.70 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $245.38 | 45 | $11,042.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:05am ET | $244.38 | 45 | $10,997.32 | $11,109.22 |
$-45.00 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $227.23 | 48 | $10,907.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $229.93 | 48 | $11,036.88 | $11,239.06 |
+$129.84 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 11:45am ET | $245.45 | 45 | $11,045.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $244.87 | 45 | $11,018.93 | $11,212.74 |
$-26.32 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $274.58 | 40 | $10,983.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $275.10 | 40 | $11,004.00 | $11,233.74 |
+$21.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $280.64 | 40 | $11,225.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 11:20am ET | $283.37 | 40 | $11,334.80 | $11,342.94 |
+$109.20 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $269.65 | 42 | $11,325.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $270.96 | 42 | $11,380.32 | $11,397.75 |
+$54.81 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 2:25pm ET | $265.64 | 42 | $11,157.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $267.29 | 42 | $11,226.18 | $11,466.84 |
+$69.09 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:40pm ET | $272.04 | 42 | $11,425.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $274.49 | 42 | $11,528.58 | $11,569.74 |
+$102.90 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $277.00 | 41 | $11,357.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $279.66 | 41 | $11,466.06 | $11,678.80 |
+$109.06 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $276.19 | 42 | $11,599.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $275.41 | 42 | $11,567.22 | $11,646.04 |
$-32.76 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $244.80 | 47 | $11,505.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $250.08 | 47 | $11,753.76 | $11,893.97 |
+$247.93 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $246.22 | 48 | $11,818.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:10pm ET | $248.14 | 48 | $11,910.72 | $11,986.13 |
+$92.16 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $242.90 | 49 | $11,901.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $238.47 | 49 | $11,685.03 | $11,769.30 |
$-216.83 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 2:10pm ET | $241.36 | 48 | $11,585.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $242.41 | 48 | $11,635.68 | $11,819.70 |
+$50.40 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $247.50 | 47 | $11,632.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:30pm ET | $241.96 | 47 | $11,371.89 | $11,559.09 |
$-260.61 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.00 | 49 | $11,515.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $231.30 | 49 | $11,333.70 | $11,377.79 |
$-181.30 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $232.81 | 48 | $11,174.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 11:40am ET | $231.93 | 48 | $11,132.64 | $11,335.55 |
$-42.24 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $250.86 | 45 | $11,288.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 2:25pm ET | $251.66 | 45 | $11,324.70 | $11,371.55 |
+$36.00 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $263.67 | 43 | $11,338.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $264.82 | 43 | $11,387.26 | $11,420.79 |
+$49.24 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $253.07 | 45 | $11,388.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.95 | 45 | $11,562.97 | $11,595.61 |
+$174.82 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.38 | 47 | $11,391.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $241.50 | 47 | $11,350.50 | $11,554.25 |
$-41.36 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $241.74 | 47 | $11,361.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $243.63 | 47 | $11,450.61 | $11,643.32 |
+$89.07 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $243.20 | 47 | $11,430.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $243.51 | 47 | $11,444.97 | $11,657.89 |
+$14.57 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 1:55pm ET | $318.37 | 36 | $11,461.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:20pm ET | $319.79 | 36 | $11,512.44 | $11,709.01 |
+$51.12 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $327.07 | 35 | $11,447.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $329.06 | 35 | $11,517.10 | $11,778.83 |
+$69.82 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,778.83
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,778.83
Total Return:
+17.79%