AXP Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 40 trades in period
+2.44%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,456.70
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$11,183.49
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.9/35
Total Return
9.8/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
29.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 28.7
30-Day Momentum
18
+0.2%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 19.3
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,975
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,183.49
Current Value
$11,456.70
Period P&L
$273.30
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
23 /
17
Best Trade
+1.20%
Worst Trade
-2.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
12h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$878,162.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$273.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$273.30
Gross Return
+2.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.44%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,183.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $302.41 | 36 | $10,886.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.23 | 36 | $10,772.46 | $11,069.10 |
$-114.30 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $300.07 | 36 | $10,802.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $300.35 | 36 | $10,812.60 | $11,079.36 |
+$10.26 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $295.93 | 37 | $10,949.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $297.39 | 37 | $11,003.25 | $11,133.20 |
+$53.84 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $293.88 | 37 | $10,873.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $293.18 | 37 | $10,847.66 | $11,107.30 |
$-25.90 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $300.70 | 36 | $10,825.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:45am ET | $303.05 | 36 | $10,909.98 | $11,191.90 |
+$84.60 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $303.04 | 36 | $10,909.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $303.89 | 36 | $10,940.04 | $11,222.50 |
+$30.60 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $304.37 | 36 | $10,957.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $306.31 | 36 | $11,027.16 | $11,292.34 |
+$69.84 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $314.16 | 35 | $10,995.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $313.35 | 35 | $10,967.25 | $11,263.95 |
$-28.39 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $314.43 | 35 | $11,005.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $313.68 | 35 | $10,978.97 | $11,237.88 |
$-26.07 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $326.80 | 34 | $11,111.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $327.46 | 34 | $11,133.64 | $11,260.49 |
+$22.61 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:35pm ET | $329.90 | 34 | $11,216.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $326.91 | 34 | $11,114.94 | $11,158.98 |
$-101.51 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $336.36 | 33 | $11,100.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $333.44 | 33 | $11,003.52 | $11,062.46 |
$-96.52 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $330.36 | 33 | $10,901.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:05pm ET | $330.35 | 33 | $10,901.55 | $11,062.13 |
$-0.33 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $326.62 | 33 | $10,778.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $317.86 | 33 | $10,489.38 | $10,773.05 |
$-289.08 (-2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 3:20pm ET | $314.30 | 34 | $10,686.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $316.58 | 34 | $10,763.89 | $10,850.71 |
+$77.66 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $317.55 | 34 | $10,796.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $317.23 | 34 | $10,785.65 | $10,839.66 |
$-11.05 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $321.18 | 33 | $10,598.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $323.86 | 33 | $10,687.38 | $10,928.10 |
+$88.44 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $318.41 | 34 | $10,825.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $320.90 | 34 | $10,910.49 | $11,012.65 |
+$84.55 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $315.88 | 34 | $10,739.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:25pm ET | $315.63 | 34 | $10,731.38 | $11,004.11 |
$-8.54 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $319.82 | 34 | $10,873.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $321.01 | 34 | $10,914.17 | $11,044.57 |
+$40.46 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $314.86 | 35 | $11,020.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $313.51 | 35 | $10,972.85 | $10,997.41 |
$-47.16 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $311.25 | 35 | $10,893.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $312.80 | 35 | $10,948.14 | $11,051.80 |
+$54.39 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $310.25 | 35 | $10,858.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:20pm ET | $309.38 | 35 | $10,828.30 | $11,021.35 |
$-30.45 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 12:50pm ET | $311.46 | 35 | $10,901.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 1:05pm ET | $312.95 | 35 | $10,953.25 | $11,073.33 |
+$51.98 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $311.43 | 35 | $10,899.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $315.05 | 35 | $11,026.58 | $11,200.02 |
+$126.69 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:45am ET | $308.28 | 36 | $11,098.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $311.98 | 36 | $11,231.28 | $11,333.22 |
+$133.20 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $307.30 | 36 | $11,062.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $309.05 | 36 | $11,125.98 | $11,396.58 |
+$63.36 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $311.79 | 36 | $11,224.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $314.04 | 36 | $11,305.44 | $11,477.58 |
+$81.00 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $311.67 | 36 | $11,220.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $310.68 | 36 | $11,184.48 | $11,441.76 |
$-35.82 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 3:10pm ET | $317.16 | 36 | $11,417.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $311.01 | 36 | $11,196.36 | $11,220.36 |
$-221.40 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $311.40 | 36 | $11,210.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $313.23 | 36 | $11,276.10 | $11,286.16 |
+$65.80 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $308.89 | 36 | $11,120.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $303.28 | 36 | $10,918.04 | $11,083.98 |
$-202.18 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $312.90 | 35 | $10,951.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 2:35pm ET | $312.32 | 35 | $10,931.20 | $11,063.68 |
$-20.30 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $312.27 | 35 | $10,929.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $312.86 | 35 | $10,950.10 | $11,084.50 |
+$20.82 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $315.71 | 35 | $11,049.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $318.95 | 35 | $11,163.25 | $11,197.90 |
+$113.40 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $312.81 | 35 | $10,948.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 10:45am ET | $312.65 | 35 | $10,942.92 | $11,192.48 |
$-5.42 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $335.49 | 33 | $11,071.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $338.92 | 33 | $11,184.20 | $11,305.51 |
+$113.03 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $343.89 | 32 | $11,004.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $345.16 | 32 | $11,045.12 | $11,346.15 |
+$40.64 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $336.94 | 33 | $11,119.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $339.30 | 33 | $11,196.90 | $11,424.03 |
+$77.88 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $336.64 | 33 | $11,109.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $337.63 | 33 | $11,141.79 | $11,456.70 |
+$32.67 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,456.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,456.70
Total Return:
+14.57%