AXP Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 40 trades in period
-1.85%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,244.80
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$11,456.79
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.4/35
Total Return
9.4/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
28.1/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 28.0
30-Day Momentum
10
-2.2%
30d Return
36%
Win Rate
14
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.98×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,456.79
Current Value
$11,244.80
Period P&L
$-211.89
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
23 /
17
Best Trade
+1.57%
Worst Trade
-1.78%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
5.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$910,266.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-211.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-211.89
Gross Return
-1.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.85%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,456.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:25pm ET | $342.23 | 33 | $11,293.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $342.38 | 33 | $11,298.38 | $11,461.65 |
+$4.95 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:30pm ET | $342.29 | 33 | $11,295.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:25pm ET | $342.48 | 33 | $11,301.84 | $11,468.09 |
+$6.44 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $340.78 | 33 | $11,245.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $341.33 | 33 | $11,263.73 | $11,486.07 |
+$17.99 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $348.30 | 32 | $11,145.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $348.94 | 32 | $11,166.08 | $11,506.55 |
+$20.48 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $356.15 | 32 | $11,396.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 2:50pm ET | $356.65 | 32 | $11,412.80 | $11,522.53 |
+$15.98 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $345.57 | 33 | $11,403.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $339.40 | 33 | $11,200.20 | $11,319.08 |
$-203.45 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $346.28 | 32 | $11,080.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $346.66 | 32 | $11,093.12 | $11,331.24 |
+$12.16 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 12:20pm ET | $353.76 | 32 | $11,320.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 1:00pm ET | $355.02 | 32 | $11,360.80 | $11,371.72 |
+$40.48 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:40pm ET | $355.33 | 32 | $11,370.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $356.20 | 32 | $11,398.40 | $11,399.72 |
+$28.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 3:00pm ET | $358.74 | 31 | $11,120.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $360.06 | 31 | $11,161.86 | $11,440.64 |
+$40.92 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $351.87 | 32 | $11,259.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $357.38 | 32 | $11,436.16 | $11,616.96 |
+$176.32 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $352.66 | 32 | $11,285.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:45pm ET | $352.57 | 32 | $11,282.24 | $11,614.08 |
$-2.88 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $350.52 | 33 | $11,567.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $347.95 | 33 | $11,482.35 | $11,529.27 |
$-84.81 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $343.38 | 33 | $11,331.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $340.59 | 33 | $11,239.47 | $11,437.37 |
$-91.91 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $332.54 | 34 | $11,306.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $335.67 | 34 | $11,412.78 | $11,543.78 |
+$106.42 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 2:20pm ET | $332.70 | 34 | $11,311.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $334.67 | 34 | $11,378.95 | $11,610.93 |
+$67.15 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 3:35pm ET | $336.98 | 34 | $11,457.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.04 | 34 | $11,561.19 | $11,714.80 |
+$103.87 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $347.12 | 33 | $11,454.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $347.89 | 33 | $11,480.21 | $11,740.05 |
+$25.25 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $347.50 | 33 | $11,467.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $344.12 | 33 | $11,355.96 | $11,628.51 |
$-111.54 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $339.51 | 34 | $11,543.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $340.99 | 34 | $11,593.66 | $11,678.83 |
+$50.32 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 3:05pm ET | $340.89 | 34 | $11,590.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $341.16 | 34 | $11,599.44 | $11,688.01 |
+$9.18 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $342.21 | 34 | $11,635.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $341.31 | 34 | $11,604.54 | $11,657.41 |
$-30.60 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 1:05pm ET | $341.69 | 34 | $11,617.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $342.21 | 34 | $11,635.14 | $11,675.09 |
+$17.68 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $337.34 | 34 | $11,469.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $337.71 | 34 | $11,482.31 | $11,687.84 |
+$12.75 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 12:35pm ET | $342.71 | 34 | $11,652.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.50 | 34 | $11,475.00 | $11,510.53 |
$-177.31 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $334.79 | 34 | $11,382.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:20pm ET | $334.51 | 34 | $11,373.34 | $11,501.01 |
$-9.52 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.52 | 34 | $11,373.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $337.30 | 34 | $11,468.20 | $11,595.53 |
+$94.52 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $335.27 | 34 | $11,399.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $335.62 | 34 | $11,411.08 | $11,607.26 |
+$11.73 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $332.51 | 34 | $11,305.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:20pm ET | $332.49 | 34 | $11,304.66 | $11,606.75 |
$-0.51 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.00 | 35 | $11,585.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 11:00am ET | $331.72 | 35 | $11,610.20 | $11,631.95 |
+$25.20 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET | $325.03 | 35 | $11,376.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $325.36 | 35 | $11,387.60 | $11,643.50 |
+$11.55 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $327.96 | 35 | $11,478.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $327.76 | 35 | $11,471.60 | $11,636.33 |
$-7.17 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $324.54 | 35 | $11,358.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $326.80 | 35 | $11,438.00 | $11,715.60 |
+$79.27 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 3:40pm ET | $322.24 | 36 | $11,600.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $320.43 | 36 | $11,535.48 | $11,650.26 |
$-65.34 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:15pm ET | $324.69 | 35 | $11,364.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:45pm ET | $324.39 | 35 | $11,353.65 | $11,639.76 |
$-10.50 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $324.60 | 35 | $11,361.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $322.89 | 35 | $11,301.08 | $11,579.84 |
$-59.92 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $315.78 | 36 | $11,368.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $313.53 | 36 | $11,287.08 | $11,498.84 |
$-81.00 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $311.68 | 36 | $11,220.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $309.90 | 36 | $11,156.58 | $11,434.94 |
$-63.90 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $312.46 | 36 | $11,248.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:25pm ET | $307.61 | 36 | $11,073.96 | $11,260.34 |
$-174.60 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 1:50pm ET | $302.54 | 37 | $11,193.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $302.12 | 37 | $11,178.44 | $11,244.80 |
$-15.54 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,244.80
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,244.80
Total Return:
+12.45%