COIN Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-04-26 to present • 30 trades in period
+13.27%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,552.26
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,198.48
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026
23
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
7.2/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
24.2/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 23.0
30-Day Momentum
51
+9.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
5.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.3
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,198.48
Current Value
$11,552.26
Period P&L
$1,353.81
Max Drawdown
-42.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
20 /
10
Best Trade
+5.54%
Worst Trade
-4.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.44%
Avg Hold Time
2.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$635,098.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,353.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,353.81
Gross Return
+13.27%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.27%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,198.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.22 | 51 | $10,160.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $203.05 | 51 | $10,355.80 | $10,394.03 |
+$195.58 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $191.94 | 54 | $10,364.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 11:05am ET | $192.96 | 54 | $10,419.84 | $10,449.11 |
+$55.08 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $200.04 | 52 | $10,402.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $199.32 | 52 | $10,364.48 | $10,411.51 |
$-37.60 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $193.59 | 53 | $10,260.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $193.62 | 53 | $10,261.86 | $10,413.10 |
+$1.59 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.90 | 49 | $10,383.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $215.85 | 49 | $10,576.41 | $10,606.41 |
+$193.31 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $201.85 | 52 | $10,496.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $201.96 | 52 | $10,501.92 | $10,612.13 |
+$5.72 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.30 | 52 | $10,571.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $194.48 | 52 | $10,112.96 | $10,153.49 |
$-458.64 (-4.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $185.00 | 54 | $9,990.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 3:05pm ET | $187.69 | 54 | $10,135.26 | $10,298.75 |
+$145.26 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $191.29 | 53 | $10,138.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $192.57 | 53 | $10,206.21 | $10,366.59 |
+$67.84 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $192.10 | 53 | $10,181.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $194.24 | 53 | $10,294.72 | $10,480.01 |
+$113.42 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $183.68 | 57 | $10,469.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 12:35pm ET | $185.59 | 57 | $10,578.35 | $10,588.60 |
+$108.59 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.41 | 62 | $10,565.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $174.92 | 62 | $10,845.04 | $10,868.10 |
+$279.50 (+2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $180.43 | 60 | $10,825.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $183.09 | 60 | $10,985.27 | $11,027.87 |
+$159.77 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.94 | 62 | $10,970.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 12:05pm ET | $174.12 | 62 | $10,795.13 | $10,852.72 |
$-175.15 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 3:00pm ET | $164.74 | 65 | $10,708.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:20pm ET | $163.43 | 65 | $10,622.95 | $10,767.57 |
$-85.15 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $164.17 | 65 | $10,671.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.92 | 65 | $10,264.80 | $10,361.32 |
$-406.25 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.30 | 65 | $10,224.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $163.23 | 65 | $10,609.95 | $10,746.77 |
+$385.45 (+3.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $156.22 | 68 | $10,622.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $156.35 | 68 | $10,631.80 | $10,755.61 |
+$8.84 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:00pm ET | $169.83 | 63 | $10,699.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:45pm ET | $170.51 | 63 | $10,742.13 | $10,798.45 |
+$42.84 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $169.81 | 63 | $10,698.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.84 | 63 | $10,510.92 | $10,611.34 |
$-187.11 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $162.73 | 65 | $10,577.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 1:50pm ET | $163.56 | 65 | $10,631.40 | $10,665.29 |
+$53.95 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $163.79 | 65 | $10,646.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $164.85 | 65 | $10,714.93 | $10,734.19 |
+$68.90 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $156.40 | 68 | $10,634.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $154.32 | 68 | $10,493.42 | $10,592.75 |
$-141.44 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:30pm ET | $143.90 | 73 | $10,504.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 2:40pm ET | $142.95 | 73 | $10,434.99 | $10,523.04 |
$-69.71 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $146.60 | 71 | $10,408.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:30pm ET | $148.00 | 71 | $10,508.00 | $10,622.79 |
+$99.75 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $145.78 | 72 | $10,496.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $144.92 | 72 | $10,434.24 | $10,560.78 |
$-62.01 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $161.64 | 65 | $10,506.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.60 | 65 | $11,088.68 | $11,142.86 |
+$582.08 (+5.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.28 | 69 | $11,128.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $165.04 | 69 | $11,387.76 | $11,402.30 |
+$259.44 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $165.95 | 68 | $11,284.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $165.00 | 68 | $11,220.00 | $11,337.70 |
$-64.60 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.70 | 72 | $11,282.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $159.68 | 72 | $11,496.96 | $11,552.26 |
+$214.56 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,552.26
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,552.26
Total Return:
+15.52%