CVX Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 40 trades in period
-4.07%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,837.98
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$11,297.95
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.3/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
28.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 27.6
30-Day Momentum
43
+2.1%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.3
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,976
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,297.95
Current Value
$10,837.98
Period P&L
$-460.01
Max Drawdown
-5.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.20
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
22 /
18
Best Trade
+1.18%
Worst Trade
-2.11%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
8.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$851,825.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-460.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-460.01
Gross Return
-4.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.07%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,297.95 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:45pm ET | $202.91 | 56 | $11,362.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $198.63 | 56 | $11,123.00 | $11,248.71 |
$-239.96 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $207.99 | 54 | $11,231.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $205.88 | 54 | $11,117.52 | $11,134.87 |
$-113.84 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
22.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:40pm ET | $208.16 | 53 | $11,032.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:55pm ET | $208.68 | 53 | $11,060.04 | $11,162.44 |
+$27.57 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $212.55 | 52 | $11,052.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $211.27 | 52 | $10,986.30 | $11,096.22 |
$-66.22 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.17 | 54 | $10,917.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:45am ET | $198.51 | 54 | $10,719.54 | $10,898.58 |
$-197.64 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $198.82 | 54 | $10,736.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $199.47 | 54 | $10,771.38 | $10,933.68 |
+$35.10 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:35pm ET | $198.49 | 55 | $10,916.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $198.68 | 55 | $10,927.67 | $10,944.40 |
+$10.72 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.37 | 57 | $10,907.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $188.88 | 57 | $10,766.16 | $10,802.75 |
$-141.65 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $194.45 | 55 | $10,694.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $190.72 | 55 | $10,489.60 | $10,597.60 |
$-205.15 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $190.33 | 55 | $10,468.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $191.07 | 55 | $10,508.85 | $10,638.30 |
+$40.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.15 | 57 | $10,553.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $184.54 | 57 | $10,518.78 | $10,603.53 |
$-34.77 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $187.51 | 56 | $10,500.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $187.92 | 56 | $10,523.52 | $10,626.21 |
+$22.68 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $184.47 | 57 | $10,514.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $184.17 | 57 | $10,497.69 | $10,609.11 |
$-17.10 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:40pm ET | $186.74 | 56 | $10,457.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.27 | 56 | $10,487.40 | $10,639.07 |
+$29.96 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.69 | 57 | $10,584.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:30pm ET | $184.33 | 57 | $10,506.81 | $10,561.55 |
$-77.52 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $188.34 | 56 | $10,547.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $188.20 | 56 | $10,539.20 | $10,553.71 |
$-7.84 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.65 | 55 | $10,430.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $191.89 | 55 | $10,553.95 | $10,677.18 |
+$123.47 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $191.40 | 55 | $10,527.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $192.20 | 55 | $10,570.73 | $10,720.91 |
+$43.73 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $191.67 | 55 | $10,541.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.03 | 55 | $10,506.65 | $10,685.71 |
$-35.20 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.77 | 57 | $10,588.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $184.45 | 57 | $10,513.65 | $10,610.47 |
$-75.24 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.89 | 58 | $10,549.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $182.08 | 58 | $10,560.64 | $10,621.61 |
+$11.14 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:40pm ET | $184.34 | 57 | $10,507.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $184.88 | 57 | $10,538.16 | $10,652.67 |
+$31.06 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.73 | 57 | $10,586.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $184.75 | 57 | $10,530.75 | $10,596.81 |
$-55.86 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $186.16 | 56 | $10,424.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $186.52 | 56 | $10,445.12 | $10,616.97 |
+$20.16 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $189.44 | 56 | $10,608.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $190.38 | 56 | $10,661.56 | $10,669.87 |
+$52.90 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $194.31 | 54 | $10,492.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $193.49 | 54 | $10,448.46 | $10,625.59 |
$-44.28 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 1:25pm ET | $190.37 | 55 | $10,470.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $190.09 | 55 | $10,454.68 | $10,609.92 |
$-15.67 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.91 | 56 | $10,579.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $187.42 | 56 | $10,495.74 | $10,526.42 |
$-83.50 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $182.46 | 57 | $10,400.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.12 | 57 | $10,494.84 | $10,621.04 |
+$94.62 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $182.15 | 58 | $10,564.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $182.36 | 58 | $10,576.88 | $10,633.22 |
+$12.18 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $185.85 | 57 | $10,593.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 12:25pm ET | $186.83 | 57 | $10,649.30 | $10,689.07 |
+$55.85 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $187.63 | 56 | $10,507.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.43 | 56 | $10,552.08 | $10,733.87 |
+$44.80 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $188.58 | 56 | $10,560.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $189.16 | 56 | $10,592.96 | $10,766.35 |
+$32.48 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $187.36 | 57 | $10,679.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $187.53 | 57 | $10,689.21 | $10,776.04 |
+$9.69 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.01 | 57 | $10,716.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $186.76 | 57 | $10,645.60 | $10,705.08 |
$-70.96 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $190.40 | 56 | $10,662.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.39 | 56 | $10,717.84 | $10,760.51 |
+$55.43 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 1:25pm ET | $186.89 | 57 | $10,652.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $187.50 | 57 | $10,687.50 | $10,795.28 |
+$34.77 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $180.42 | 59 | $10,644.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.64 | 59 | $10,598.77 | $10,749.27 |
$-46.01 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.15 | 60 | $10,749.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $179.43 | 60 | $10,766.10 | $10,766.37 |
+$17.10 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $172.93 | 62 | $10,721.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $174.08 | 62 | $10,792.96 | $10,837.98 |
+$71.61 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,837.98
Net Profit/Loss:
+$837.98
Total Return:
+8.38%