HD Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 40 trades in period
-0.04%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,410.91
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$10,414.86
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
5.9/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
21.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 21.4
30-Day Momentum
27
+1.2%
30d Return
53%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.9
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,414.86
Current Value
$10,410.91
Period P&L
$-3.93
Max Drawdown
-5.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
21 /
19
Best Trade
+1.22%
Worst Trade
-2.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.00%
Avg Hold Time
5.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$813,676.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3.93
Gross Return
-0.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.04%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,414.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $349.53 | 29 | $10,136.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 1:20pm ET | $348.87 | 29 | $10,117.23 | $10,395.70 |
$-19.14 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $347.30 | 29 | $10,071.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $349.92 | 29 | $10,147.68 | $10,471.68 |
+$75.98 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:45pm ET | $353.34 | 29 | $10,246.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $352.49 | 29 | $10,222.21 | $10,447.03 |
$-24.65 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $350.70 | 29 | $10,170.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $348.27 | 29 | $10,099.83 | $10,376.42 |
$-70.61 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:35pm ET | $344.80 | 30 | $10,344.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 1:50pm ET | $345.61 | 30 | $10,368.30 | $10,400.72 |
+$24.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $339.05 | 30 | $10,171.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $338.78 | 30 | $10,163.40 | $10,392.47 |
$-8.25 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $343.37 | 30 | $10,301.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $342.57 | 30 | $10,277.10 | $10,368.47 |
$-24.00 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $337.60 | 30 | $10,128.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $338.61 | 30 | $10,158.45 | $10,398.92 |
+$30.45 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:55pm ET | $345.40 | 30 | $10,362.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $345.98 | 30 | $10,379.40 | $10,416.32 |
+$17.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $338.71 | 30 | $10,161.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $336.87 | 30 | $10,106.10 | $10,360.97 |
$-55.35 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.27 | 31 | $10,269.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $329.41 | 31 | $10,211.71 | $10,303.31 |
$-57.66 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $332.43 | 30 | $9,972.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 2:15pm ET | $332.84 | 30 | $9,985.20 | $10,315.61 |
+$12.30 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $337.24 | 30 | $10,117.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:30pm ET | $338.29 | 30 | $10,148.70 | $10,346.96 |
+$31.35 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $344.16 | 30 | $10,324.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:15pm ET | $344.96 | 30 | $10,348.80 | $10,370.96 |
+$24.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 1:40pm ET | $341.14 | 30 | $10,234.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:00pm ET | $343.23 | 30 | $10,296.90 | $10,433.66 |
+$62.70 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 2:50pm ET | $331.56 | 31 | $10,278.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $332.71 | 31 | $10,314.11 | $10,469.41 |
+$35.75 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $351.19 | 29 | $10,184.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $351.82 | 29 | $10,202.78 | $10,487.68 |
+$18.27 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $352.01 | 29 | $10,208.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $349.77 | 29 | $10,143.26 | $10,422.65 |
$-65.03 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $353.10 | 29 | $10,239.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $346.05 | 29 | $10,035.59 | $10,218.34 |
$-204.31 (-2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $340.66 | 29 | $9,879.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $341.55 | 29 | $9,904.95 | $10,244.15 |
+$25.81 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $337.70 | 30 | $10,131.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.51 | 30 | $10,065.15 | $10,178.30 |
$-65.85 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $333.86 | 30 | $10,015.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $337.92 | 30 | $10,137.71 | $10,300.21 |
+$121.91 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $344.37 | 29 | $9,986.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 12:40pm ET | $344.11 | 29 | $9,979.19 | $10,292.67 |
$-7.54 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $334.69 | 30 | $10,040.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:20pm ET | $333.98 | 30 | $10,019.40 | $10,271.37 |
$-21.30 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $336.05 | 30 | $10,081.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $336.55 | 30 | $10,096.50 | $10,286.37 |
+$15.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $336.02 | 30 | $10,080.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $337.88 | 30 | $10,136.40 | $10,342.17 |
+$55.80 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $330.90 | 31 | $10,257.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $330.70 | 31 | $10,251.55 | $10,335.82 |
$-6.35 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $326.67 | 31 | $10,126.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:40am ET | $328.18 | 31 | $10,173.58 | $10,382.63 |
+$46.81 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 12:30pm ET | $321.14 | 32 | $10,276.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $320.28 | 32 | $10,248.96 | $10,355.11 |
$-27.52 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $319.30 | 32 | $10,217.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 3:40pm ET | $318.80 | 32 | $10,201.44 | $10,339.11 |
$-16.00 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $316.50 | 32 | $10,128.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $318.72 | 32 | $10,199.04 | $10,410.15 |
+$71.04 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $319.38 | 32 | $10,220.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $318.08 | 32 | $10,178.52 | $10,368.52 |
$-41.63 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.93 | 33 | $10,161.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $305.80 | 33 | $10,091.40 | $10,298.06 |
$-70.46 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.25 | 33 | $10,139.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $309.29 | 33 | $10,206.57 | $10,365.38 |
+$67.32 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $307.68 | 33 | $10,153.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:35pm ET | $305.93 | 33 | $10,095.69 | $10,307.46 |
$-57.92 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $307.23 | 33 | $10,138.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET | $307.82 | 33 | $10,157.90 | $10,326.93 |
+$19.47 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 12:55pm ET | $303.27 | 34 | $10,311.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $303.43 | 34 | $10,316.62 | $10,332.37 |
+$5.44 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 3:30pm ET | $299.61 | 34 | $10,186.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $300.31 | 34 | $10,210.54 | $10,356.34 |
+$23.97 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $298.02 | 34 | $10,132.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.17 | 34 | $10,239.61 | $10,463.27 |
+$106.93 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.50 | 34 | $10,251.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $299.96 | 34 | $10,198.64 | $10,410.91 |
$-52.36 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,410.91
Net Profit/Loss:
+$410.91
Total Return:
+4.11%