IBM Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 36 trades in period
+8.59%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,190.14
Current Value
72%
Win Rate
$10,305.15
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
9.2/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
27.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 27.7
30-Day Momentum
49
+3.8%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
12
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.8
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,305.15
Current Value
$11,190.14
Period P&L
$885.04
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
26 /
10
Best Trade
+3.57%
Worst Trade
-3.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
5.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$768,634.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$885.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$885.04
Gross Return
+8.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.59%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,305.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $262.22 | 39 | $10,226.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.23 | 39 | $10,383.16 | $10,461.69 |
+$156.58 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $276.74 | 37 | $10,239.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $277.90 | 37 | $10,282.48 | $10,504.80 |
+$43.11 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $286.91 | 36 | $10,328.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $288.18 | 36 | $10,374.48 | $10,550.51 |
+$45.72 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $309.34 | 34 | $10,517.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $298.16 | 34 | $10,137.40 | $10,170.35 |
$-380.16 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.37 | 35 | $9,987.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $295.55 | 35 | $10,344.25 | $10,526.74 |
+$356.39 (+3.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $289.82 | 36 | $10,433.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 12:55pm ET | $290.53 | 36 | $10,459.08 | $10,552.48 |
+$25.74 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $289.34 | 36 | $10,416.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 2:00pm ET | $291.94 | 36 | $10,509.84 | $10,645.96 |
+$93.48 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $213.32 | 49 | $10,452.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $213.71 | 49 | $10,472.03 | $10,665.07 |
+$19.11 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.82 | 49 | $10,526.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $211.52 | 49 | $10,364.48 | $10,503.37 |
$-161.70 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $213.91 | 49 | $10,481.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.73 | 49 | $10,521.53 | $10,543.06 |
+$39.69 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $210.09 | 50 | $10,504.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $211.20 | 50 | $10,560.00 | $10,598.55 |
+$55.49 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $204.73 | 51 | $10,441.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 2:25pm ET | $205.24 | 51 | $10,466.99 | $10,624.31 |
+$25.76 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 3:05pm ET | $214.54 | 49 | $10,512.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.80 | 49 | $10,721.20 | $10,833.05 |
+$208.74 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $227.20 | 47 | $10,678.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $227.56 | 47 | $10,695.32 | $10,849.97 |
+$16.92 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.58 | 48 | $10,635.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $221.21 | 48 | $10,618.20 | $10,832.33 |
$-17.64 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $227.19 | 47 | $10,677.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $223.61 | 47 | $10,509.67 | $10,664.07 |
$-168.26 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $236.77 | 45 | $10,654.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 2:50pm ET | $237.88 | 45 | $10,704.38 | $10,713.88 |
+$49.81 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $234.60 | 45 | $10,556.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $237.20 | 45 | $10,673.78 | $10,830.88 |
+$117.00 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 1:50pm ET | $237.76 | 45 | $10,698.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 2:20pm ET | $238.37 | 45 | $10,726.65 | $10,858.55 |
+$27.67 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $234.80 | 46 | $10,800.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 11:15am ET | $234.61 | 46 | $10,792.06 | $10,849.81 |
$-8.74 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $232.82 | 46 | $10,709.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.67 | 46 | $10,610.82 | $10,751.09 |
$-98.72 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.50 | 45 | $10,597.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $236.52 | 45 | $10,643.40 | $10,796.99 |
+$45.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.79 | 46 | $10,708.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $232.36 | 46 | $10,688.56 | $10,777.21 |
$-19.78 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.68 | 46 | $10,611.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $233.91 | 46 | $10,759.86 | $10,925.79 |
+$148.58 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $235.38 | 46 | $10,827.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $235.93 | 46 | $10,852.78 | $10,951.09 |
+$25.30 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 3:50pm ET | $234.17 | 46 | $10,771.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.80 | 46 | $10,662.87 | $10,842.14 |
$-108.95 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $229.33 | 47 | $10,778.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $231.03 | 47 | $10,858.53 | $10,922.16 |
+$80.02 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 1:00pm ET | $234.53 | 46 | $10,788.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $234.37 | 46 | $10,780.79 | $10,914.57 |
$-7.59 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.72 | 47 | $10,890.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $232.22 | 47 | $10,914.34 | $10,938.07 |
+$23.50 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $235.52 | 46 | $10,834.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $239.12 | 46 | $10,999.52 | $11,103.44 |
+$165.37 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.20 | 45 | $11,079.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $249.38 | 45 | $11,222.10 | $11,246.54 |
+$143.10 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $239.75 | 46 | $11,028.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $240.70 | 46 | $11,072.20 | $11,290.24 |
+$43.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $234.15 | 48 | $11,238.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 11:35am ET | $230.42 | 48 | $11,060.16 | $11,111.44 |
$-178.80 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:35am ET | $230.69 | 48 | $11,073.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:25pm ET | $231.50 | 48 | $11,112.00 | $11,150.32 |
+$38.88 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $234.70 | 47 | $11,030.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $235.37 | 47 | $11,062.39 | $11,181.81 |
+$31.49 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $227.23 | 49 | $11,134.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:50pm ET | $227.40 | 49 | $11,142.60 | $11,190.14 |
+$8.33 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,190.14
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,190.14
Total Return:
+11.90%