ISRG Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 39 trades in period
-6.65%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,795.62
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$12,635.69
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
29.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 29.7
30-Day Momentum
32
+1.0%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 32.3
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,635.69
Current Value
$11,795.62
Period P&L
$-840.09
Max Drawdown
-17.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
26 /
13
Best Trade
+1.09%
Worst Trade
-4.93%
Avg Trade Return
-0.17%
Avg Hold Time
3.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$904,556.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-840.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-840.09
Gross Return
-6.65%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.65%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,635.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:25pm ET | $400.83 | 31 | $12,425.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $402.24 | 31 | $12,469.59 | $12,679.57 |
+$43.87 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $405.10 | 31 | $12,558.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $404.79 | 31 | $12,548.49 | $12,669.96 |
$-9.61 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $406.14 | 31 | $12,590.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $406.86 | 31 | $12,612.66 | $12,692.28 |
+$22.32 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $398.86 | 31 | $12,364.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $397.58 | 31 | $12,324.98 | $12,652.75 |
$-39.53 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $433.00 | 29 | $12,557.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 12:35pm ET | $428.98 | 29 | $12,440.28 | $12,536.03 |
$-116.72 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $415.50 | 30 | $12,465.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.36 | 30 | $12,310.70 | $12,381.73 |
$-154.30 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $409.80 | 30 | $12,294.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $406.02 | 30 | $12,180.45 | $12,268.18 |
$-113.55 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $408.96 | 29 | $11,859.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $388.79 | 29 | $11,274.91 | $11,683.25 |
$-584.93 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $389.48 | 29 | $11,294.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 2:35pm ET | $391.20 | 29 | $11,344.66 | $11,732.99 |
+$49.73 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $357.72 | 32 | $11,447.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 12:50pm ET | $351.80 | 32 | $11,257.60 | $11,543.54 |
$-189.44 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:35pm ET | $351.10 | 32 | $11,235.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:55pm ET | $353.48 | 32 | $11,311.36 | $11,619.70 |
+$76.16 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $353.97 | 32 | $11,327.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 1:10pm ET | $343.25 | 32 | $10,984.00 | $11,276.66 |
$-343.04 (-3.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
22.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $330.78 | 34 | $11,246.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $332.02 | 34 | $11,288.68 | $11,318.82 |
+$42.16 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $355.78 | 31 | $11,029.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $357.05 | 31 | $11,068.55 | $11,358.19 |
+$39.37 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.70 | 31 | $11,026.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $356.67 | 31 | $11,056.92 | $11,388.42 |
+$30.22 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $349.87 | 32 | $11,195.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:30am ET | $350.20 | 32 | $11,206.40 | $11,398.98 |
+$10.56 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:00pm ET | $372.82 | 30 | $11,184.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 3:40pm ET | $373.11 | 30 | $11,193.30 | $11,407.68 |
+$8.70 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:25am ET | $370.35 | 30 | $11,110.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $371.54 | 30 | $11,146.20 | $11,443.38 |
+$35.70 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $397.27 | 28 | $11,123.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:00am ET | $400.39 | 28 | $11,210.92 | $11,530.60 |
+$87.22 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $398.23 | 28 | $11,150.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $401.51 | 28 | $11,242.28 | $11,622.44 |
+$91.84 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $390.30 | 29 | $11,318.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $390.93 | 29 | $11,336.97 | $11,640.57 |
+$18.13 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $394.31 | 29 | $11,434.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $398.62 | 29 | $11,559.98 | $11,765.56 |
+$124.99 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $396.41 | 29 | $11,495.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $392.35 | 29 | $11,378.15 | $11,647.82 |
$-117.74 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:30pm ET | $378.57 | 30 | $11,357.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:35pm ET | $379.44 | 30 | $11,383.20 | $11,673.92 |
+$26.10 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $373.55 | 31 | $11,580.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $375.92 | 31 | $11,653.52 | $11,747.39 |
+$73.47 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $369.64 | 31 | $11,458.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $370.95 | 31 | $11,499.30 | $11,787.69 |
+$40.30 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $368.05 | 32 | $11,777.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $369.34 | 32 | $11,818.88 | $11,829.03 |
+$41.34 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET | $370.75 | 31 | $11,493.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $371.43 | 31 | $11,514.33 | $11,850.11 |
+$21.08 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.23 | 31 | $11,570.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $367.49 | 31 | $11,392.19 | $11,672.17 |
$-177.94 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $376.32 | 31 | $11,665.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $371.44 | 31 | $11,514.64 | $11,520.89 |
$-151.28 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 3:05pm ET | $369.61 | 31 | $11,457.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:20pm ET | $370.97 | 31 | $11,500.07 | $11,563.05 |
+$42.16 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.80 | 32 | $11,513.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $359.23 | 32 | $11,495.36 | $11,544.81 |
$-18.24 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $349.96 | 32 | $11,198.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $353.13 | 32 | $11,300.00 | $11,645.93 |
+$101.12 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $374.09 | 31 | $11,596.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $376.10 | 31 | $11,659.10 | $11,708.24 |
+$62.31 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 3:20pm ET | $376.33 | 31 | $11,666.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $378.10 | 31 | $11,721.10 | $11,763.00 |
+$54.76 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $378.59 | 31 | $11,736.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 11:35am ET | $379.68 | 31 | $11,770.16 | $11,796.87 |
+$33.87 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $390.88 | 30 | $11,726.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $392.39 | 30 | $11,771.55 | $11,842.02 |
+$45.15 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $399.27 | 29 | $11,578.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $399.83 | 29 | $11,595.21 | $11,858.55 |
+$16.53 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $399.47 | 29 | $11,584.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 2:35pm ET | $397.30 | 29 | $11,521.70 | $11,795.62 |
$-62.93 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,795.62
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,795.62
Total Return:
+17.96%