ISRG Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 37 trades in period
-0.84%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,635.70
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$12,743.36
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
34
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.5/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
34.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 33.7
30-Day Momentum
17
-2.6%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,976
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,743.36
Current Value
$12,635.70
Period P&L
$-107.67
Max Drawdown
-17.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
23 /
14
Best Trade
+2.19%
Worst Trade
-3.15%
Avg Trade Return
-0.02%
Avg Hold Time
4.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$922,673.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-107.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$-107.67
Gross Return
-0.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.84%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,743.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $479.19 | 26 | $12,458.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $473.75 | 26 | $12,317.50 | $12,601.93 |
$-141.44 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $470.38 | 26 | $12,229.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $473.21 | 26 | $12,303.46 | $12,675.51 |
+$73.58 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $474.67 | 26 | $12,341.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $474.48 | 26 | $12,336.48 | $12,670.44 |
$-5.07 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $451.88 | 28 | $12,652.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET | $451.77 | 28 | $12,649.59 | $12,667.39 |
$-3.05 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $465.63 | 27 | $12,572.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $467.02 | 27 | $12,609.54 | $12,704.92 |
+$37.53 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $451.39 | 28 | $12,639.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $451.42 | 28 | $12,639.90 | $12,705.76 |
+$0.84 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $458.45 | 27 | $12,378.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $454.86 | 27 | $12,281.35 | $12,608.96 |
$-96.80 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $449.99 | 28 | $12,599.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $450.80 | 28 | $12,622.54 | $12,631.78 |
+$22.82 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $468.49 | 26 | $12,180.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $470.05 | 26 | $12,221.43 | $12,672.34 |
+$40.56 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $465.02 | 27 | $12,555.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $460.29 | 27 | $12,427.83 | $12,544.50 |
$-127.84 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $471.58 | 26 | $12,261.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:50pm ET | $468.56 | 26 | $12,182.56 | $12,465.98 |
$-78.52 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $461.01 | 27 | $12,447.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $465.15 | 27 | $12,559.05 | $12,577.76 |
+$111.78 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:10pm ET | $483.42 | 26 | $12,569.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:40pm ET | $485.52 | 26 | $12,623.65 | $12,632.36 |
+$54.60 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $475.44 | 26 | $12,361.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $477.32 | 26 | $12,410.37 | $12,681.29 |
+$48.93 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $473.82 | 26 | $12,319.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $471.93 | 26 | $12,270.18 | $12,632.15 |
$-49.14 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $460.00 | 27 | $12,420.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $451.55 | 27 | $12,191.85 | $12,404.00 |
$-228.15 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $457.46 | 27 | $12,351.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $458.81 | 27 | $12,387.87 | $12,440.32 |
+$36.32 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $447.42 | 27 | $12,080.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $451.11 | 27 | $12,180.06 | $12,540.04 |
+$99.72 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.23 | 27 | $12,156.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $450.50 | 27 | $12,163.50 | $12,547.33 |
+$7.29 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $428.13 | 29 | $12,415.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $431.68 | 29 | $12,518.86 | $12,650.42 |
+$103.09 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $430.13 | 29 | $12,473.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $432.39 | 29 | $12,539.17 | $12,715.82 |
+$65.40 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $435.96 | 29 | $12,642.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $445.52 | 29 | $12,919.94 | $12,992.92 |
+$277.10 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 11:30am ET | $437.05 | 29 | $12,674.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 12:30pm ET | $437.29 | 29 | $12,681.41 | $13,000.02 |
+$7.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:35pm ET | $437.82 | 29 | $12,696.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $441.03 | 29 | $12,789.88 | $13,093.12 |
+$93.10 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $432.42 | 30 | $12,972.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $418.80 | 30 | $12,563.85 | $12,684.37 |
$-408.75 (-3.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $421.81 | 30 | $12,654.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $423.30 | 30 | $12,699.00 | $12,729.07 |
+$44.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 1:40pm ET | $416.32 | 30 | $12,489.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:45pm ET | $417.93 | 30 | $12,537.90 | $12,777.37 |
+$48.30 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:20pm ET | $401.22 | 31 | $12,437.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:25pm ET | $400.23 | 31 | $12,407.13 | $12,746.68 |
$-30.69 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $414.40 | 30 | $12,432.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 1:45pm ET | $415.89 | 30 | $12,476.70 | $12,791.38 |
+$44.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:50pm ET | $422.58 | 30 | $12,677.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $421.12 | 30 | $12,633.60 | $12,747.73 |
$-43.65 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $423.48 | 30 | $12,704.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 1:40pm ET | $425.21 | 30 | $12,756.30 | $12,799.63 |
+$51.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $416.70 | 30 | $12,501.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $408.00 | 30 | $12,240.00 | $12,538.63 |
$-261.00 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $407.17 | 30 | $12,215.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $409.30 | 30 | $12,279.00 | $12,602.38 |
+$63.75 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $415.40 | 30 | $12,462.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 1:10pm ET | $415.45 | 30 | $12,463.50 | $12,603.88 |
+$1.50 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $416.51 | 30 | $12,495.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $413.00 | 30 | $12,390.00 | $12,498.58 |
$-105.30 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.80 | 31 | $12,424.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $405.90 | 31 | $12,583.05 | $12,656.99 |
+$158.41 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $401.49 | 31 | $12,446.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $400.81 | 31 | $12,425.05 | $12,635.70 |
$-21.29 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,635.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,635.70
Total Return:
+26.36%