MARA Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-04-26 to present • 31 trades in period
+21.75%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,070.65
Current Value
81%
Win Rate
$11,556.76
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.8/35
Total Return
13.5/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
32.6/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 31.0
30-Day Momentum
38
+3.1%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 51.1
Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,556.76
Current Value
$14,070.65
Period P&L
$2,513.92
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
25 /
6
Best Trade
+6.17%
Worst Trade
-4.96%
Avg Trade Return
+0.66%
Avg Hold Time
10.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$740,931.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,513.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,513.92
Gross Return
+21.75%
Net Return (after fees)
+21.75%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,556.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $11.17 | 1,034 | $11,549.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 1,034 | $11,136.18 | $11,143.13 |
$-413.60 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.73 | 1,038 | $11,132.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $10.36 | 1,038 | $10,758.87 | $10,769.45 |
$-373.68 (-3.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:10pm ET | $11.87 | 907 | $10,766.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $11.99 | 907 | $10,879.46 | $10,882.73 |
+$113.28 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $11.56 | 941 | $10,873.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.60 | 941 | $10,910.90 | $10,920.37 |
+$37.64 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $11.79 | 926 | $10,914.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $11.90 | 926 | $11,022.64 | $11,028.06 |
+$107.69 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.73 | 866 | $11,024.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $12.95 | 866 | $11,219.03 | $11,222.91 |
+$194.85 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $13.50 | 831 | $11,218.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.83 | 831 | $10,661.73 | $10,666.14 |
$-556.77 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $12.61 | 845 | $10,659.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $12.69 | 845 | $10,727.27 | $10,733.74 |
+$67.60 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $13.27 | 808 | $10,722.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $13.44 | 808 | $10,862.51 | $10,874.01 |
+$140.27 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $12.41 | 875 | $10,863.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.02 | 875 | $10,513.13 | $10,524.01 |
$-350.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $13.14 | 801 | $10,521.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.36 | 801 | $10,705.36 | $10,708.24 |
+$184.23 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $13.78 | 777 | $10,705.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.26 | 777 | $11,080.02 | $11,082.29 |
+$374.05 (+3.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.05 | 788 | $11,071.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.25 | 788 | $11,229.00 | $11,239.89 |
+$157.60 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.86 | 810 | $11,228.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.11 | 810 | $11,433.15 | $11,444.82 |
+$204.93 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.57 | 785 | $11,439.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $14.90 | 785 | $11,700.42 | $11,706.23 |
+$261.41 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET | $13.96 | 838 | $11,698.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $14.03 | 838 | $11,761.33 | $11,769.25 |
+$63.02 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.08 | 899 | $11,758.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.98 | 899 | $11,664.53 | $11,675.04 |
$-94.21 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $13.03 | 896 | $11,674.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $13.05 | 896 | $11,692.80 | $11,692.96 |
+$17.92 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $12.74 | 917 | $11,687.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $13.11 | 917 | $12,021.87 | $12,027.66 |
+$334.70 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $14.83 | 811 | $12,027.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.91 | 811 | $12,096.06 | $12,096.60 |
+$68.94 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.34 | 843 | $12,088.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $14.60 | 843 | $12,303.59 | $12,311.73 |
+$215.13 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:05pm ET | $13.87 | 887 | $12,302.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:30pm ET | $14.00 | 887 | $12,418.00 | $12,427.04 |
+$115.31 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.10 | 881 | $12,417.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.97 | 881 | $13,184.17 | $13,193.51 |
+$766.47 (+6.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $14.05 | 939 | $13,192.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $14.35 | 939 | $13,474.65 | $13,475.21 |
+$281.70 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $13.64 | 987 | $13,462.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $13.81 | 987 | $13,635.40 | $13,648.03 |
+$172.82 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.07 | 969 | $13,638.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $13.91 | 969 | $13,478.11 | $13,487.47 |
$-160.56 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $13.41 | 1,005 | $13,477.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $13.61 | 1,005 | $13,678.05 | $13,688.37 |
+$200.90 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $13.64 | 1,003 | $13,675.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $13.73 | 1,003 | $13,771.29 | $13,783.75 |
+$95.38 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $12.94 | 1,064 | $13,773.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $12.95 | 1,064 | $13,784.12 | $13,794.39 |
+$10.64 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.73 | 1,175 | $13,782.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $11.80 | 1,175 | $13,859.13 | $13,870.77 |
+$76.38 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $13.18 | 1,052 | $13,860.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 2:40pm ET | $13.36 | 1,052 | $14,059.98 | $14,070.65 |
+$199.88 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,070.65
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,070.65
Total Return:
+40.71%