MARA Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 39 trades in period
+11.91%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,764.43
Current Value
77%
Win Rate
$13,193.54
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
34
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.5/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
8.5/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
33.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 33.7
30-Day Momentum
19
-6.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.0
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,193.54
Current Value
$14,764.43
Period P&L
$1,570.92
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
30 /
9
Best Trade
+3.19%
Worst Trade
-8.15%
Avg Trade Return
+0.31%
Avg Hold Time
5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,152,017.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,570.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,570.92
Gross Return
+11.91%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.91%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,193.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $14.05 | 939 | $13,192.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $14.35 | 939 | $13,474.65 | $13,475.21 |
+$281.70 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $13.64 | 987 | $13,462.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $13.81 | 987 | $13,635.40 | $13,648.03 |
+$172.82 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.07 | 969 | $13,638.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $13.91 | 969 | $13,478.11 | $13,487.47 |
$-160.56 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $13.41 | 1,005 | $13,477.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $13.61 | 1,005 | $13,678.05 | $13,688.37 |
+$200.90 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $13.64 | 1,003 | $13,675.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $13.73 | 1,003 | $13,771.29 | $13,783.75 |
+$95.38 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $12.94 | 1,064 | $13,773.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $12.95 | 1,064 | $13,784.12 | $13,794.39 |
+$10.64 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.73 | 1,175 | $13,782.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $11.80 | 1,175 | $13,859.13 | $13,870.77 |
+$76.38 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $13.18 | 1,052 | $13,860.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 2:40pm ET | $13.36 | 1,052 | $14,059.98 | $14,070.65 |
+$199.88 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 2:55pm ET | $12.56 | 1,119 | $14,060.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $12.60 | 1,119 | $14,093.81 | $14,104.22 |
+$33.57 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 1,183 | $14,101.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $12.09 | 1,183 | $14,296.56 | $14,299.30 |
+$195.08 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $11.76 | 1,215 | $14,288.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $11.84 | 1,215 | $14,379.53 | $14,390.42 |
+$91.12 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $11.32 | 1,271 | $14,387.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $11.47 | 1,271 | $14,572.02 | $14,574.72 |
+$184.30 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $10.62 | 1,372 | $14,570.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $10.70 | 1,372 | $14,680.40 | $14,684.48 |
+$109.76 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:45pm ET | $12.51 | 1,174 | $14,680.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $12.24 | 1,174 | $14,369.76 | $14,373.37 |
$-311.11 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $12.82 | 1,121 | $14,371.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $12.95 | 1,121 | $14,517.06 | $14,519.21 |
+$145.84 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.06 | 1,203 | $14,508.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.28 | 1,203 | $14,772.84 | $14,783.87 |
+$264.66 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.80 | 1,368 | $14,774.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $11.15 | 1,368 | $15,246.36 | $15,255.69 |
+$471.82 (+3.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $10.25 | 1,488 | $15,252.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:30pm ET | $10.47 | 1,488 | $15,571.92 | $15,575.46 |
+$319.77 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.57 | 1,345 | $15,568.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:50am ET | $11.52 | 1,345 | $15,501.12 | $15,508.21 |
$-67.25 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.58 | 1,339 | $15,505.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $11.59 | 1,339 | $15,512.32 | $15,514.91 |
+$6.70 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.94 | 1,418 | $15,512.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $11.12 | 1,418 | $15,768.16 | $15,770.15 |
+$255.24 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $9.97 | 1,581 | $15,768.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:50pm ET | $10.01 | 1,581 | $15,825.49 | $15,826.91 |
+$56.76 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $9.66 | 1,637 | $15,821.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.46 | 1,637 | $15,486.02 | $15,491.33 |
$-335.58 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.01 | 1,719 | $15,488.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.06 | 1,719 | $15,565.55 | $15,568.69 |
+$77.36 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $9.24 | 1,684 | $15,560.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 11:30am ET | $9.23 | 1,684 | $15,543.15 | $15,551.68 |
$-17.01 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $9.49 | 1,638 | $15,544.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 3:40pm ET | $9.53 | 1,638 | $15,618.33 | $15,625.23 |
+$73.55 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $11.16 | 1,400 | $15,624.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $11.28 | 1,400 | $15,799.00 | $15,800.23 |
+$175.00 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $11.91 | 1,326 | $15,792.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.58 | 1,326 | $15,355.08 | $15,362.78 |
$-437.45 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.51 | 1,462 | $15,358.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 11:05am ET | $10.45 | 1,462 | $15,285.21 | $15,289.68 |
$-73.10 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET | $10.27 | 1,488 | $15,281.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 1:40pm ET | $10.31 | 1,488 | $15,333.84 | $15,341.76 |
+$52.08 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.27 | 1,361 | $15,338.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.32 | 1,361 | $15,400.26 | $15,403.55 |
+$61.79 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $11.81 | 1,303 | $15,394.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.06 | 1,303 | $15,714.18 | $15,722.79 |
+$319.24 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.62 | 1,353 | $15,721.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.57 | 1,353 | $15,660.97 | $15,661.90 |
$-60.89 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET | $12.02 | 1,302 | $15,650.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.04 | 1,302 | $14,374.08 | $14,385.81 |
$-1,276.09 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.27 | 1,277 | $14,385.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $11.30 | 1,277 | $14,423.72 | $14,424.12 |
+$38.31 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:10pm ET | $11.23 | 1,284 | $14,412.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $11.26 | 1,284 | $14,451.42 | $14,462.64 |
+$38.52 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 3:25pm ET | $13.35 | 1,083 | $14,458.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.41 | 1,083 | $14,527.15 | $14,531.74 |
+$69.10 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.43 | 1,082 | $14,531.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.54 | 1,082 | $14,648.77 | $14,649.24 |
+$117.50 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $12.89 | 1,136 | $14,644.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $12.99 | 1,136 | $14,759.59 | $14,764.43 |
+$115.19 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,764.43
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,764.43
Total Return:
+47.64%