MCD Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 40 trades in period
-1.99%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,334.37
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$12,585.40
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
43
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
16.3/35
Total Return
11.5/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
3.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
43.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 43.1
30-Day Momentum
12
-1.8%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,585.40
Current Value
$12,334.37
Period P&L
$-251.01
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
23 /
17
Best Trade
+1.04%
Worst Trade
-2.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
3.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$978,778.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-251.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-251.01
Gross Return
-1.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.99%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,585.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $272.51 | 46 | $12,535.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $266.68 | 46 | $12,267.28 | $12,317.20 |
$-268.18 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $268.88 | 45 | $12,099.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 2:00pm ET | $268.17 | 45 | $12,067.87 | $12,285.47 |
$-31.73 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $266.36 | 46 | $12,252.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $266.94 | 46 | $12,279.24 | $12,312.13 |
+$26.65 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $269.52 | 45 | $12,128.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $270.40 | 45 | $12,168.00 | $12,351.73 |
+$39.60 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $277.37 | 44 | $12,204.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $274.73 | 44 | $12,088.12 | $12,235.57 |
$-116.16 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:25pm ET | $281.53 | 43 | $12,105.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $282.14 | 43 | $12,132.02 | $12,261.80 |
+$26.23 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $276.13 | 44 | $12,149.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $275.05 | 44 | $12,102.20 | $12,214.28 |
$-47.52 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 2:30pm ET | $276.03 | 44 | $12,145.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:35pm ET | $275.37 | 44 | $12,116.17 | $12,185.13 |
$-29.15 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $271.71 | 44 | $11,955.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $272.56 | 44 | $11,992.64 | $12,222.53 |
+$37.40 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.58 | 45 | $11,996.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $268.43 | 45 | $12,079.35 | $12,305.56 |
+$83.03 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:35pm ET | $271.08 | 45 | $12,198.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $271.76 | 45 | $12,229.20 | $12,336.16 |
+$30.60 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 11:30am ET | $267.74 | 46 | $12,316.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:00pm ET | $266.93 | 46 | $12,278.78 | $12,298.67 |
$-37.49 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $264.85 | 46 | $12,183.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:15pm ET | $264.93 | 46 | $12,187.01 | $12,302.58 |
+$3.91 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $261.73 | 47 | $12,301.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 2:15pm ET | $262.03 | 47 | $12,315.41 | $12,316.68 |
+$14.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $264.40 | 46 | $12,162.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:35pm ET | $264.77 | 46 | $12,179.42 | $12,333.69 |
+$17.02 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:55am ET | $275.15 | 44 | $12,106.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:45pm ET | $273.17 | 44 | $12,019.26 | $12,246.35 |
$-87.34 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $271.10 | 45 | $12,199.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:25pm ET | $272.05 | 45 | $12,242.22 | $12,289.07 |
+$42.72 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:40pm ET | $267.88 | 45 | $12,054.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.82 | 45 | $12,006.90 | $12,241.37 |
$-47.70 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $267.54 | 45 | $12,039.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 2:10pm ET | $268.32 | 45 | $12,074.40 | $12,276.70 |
+$35.33 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $265.68 | 46 | $12,221.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $266.61 | 46 | $12,264.06 | $12,319.25 |
+$42.55 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $274.54 | 44 | $12,079.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $275.83 | 44 | $12,136.30 | $12,375.79 |
+$56.54 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $270.50 | 45 | $12,172.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $273.31 | 45 | $12,298.95 | $12,502.24 |
+$126.45 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $270.50 | 46 | $12,443.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $272.61 | 46 | $12,539.83 | $12,599.07 |
+$96.83 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $273.79 | 46 | $12,594.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $273.52 | 46 | $12,582.15 | $12,586.88 |
$-12.19 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 3:40pm ET | $268.12 | 46 | $12,333.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.29 | 46 | $12,249.34 | $12,502.70 |
$-84.18 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $269.07 | 46 | $12,376.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $269.61 | 46 | $12,401.83 | $12,527.54 |
+$24.84 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:30pm ET | $270.18 | 46 | $12,428.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:35pm ET | $270.75 | 46 | $12,454.50 | $12,553.76 |
+$26.22 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $271.94 | 46 | $12,509.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $270.65 | 46 | $12,450.13 | $12,494.65 |
$-59.11 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $267.59 | 46 | $12,309.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $268.03 | 46 | $12,329.38 | $12,514.89 |
+$20.24 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $262.46 | 47 | $12,335.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.80 | 47 | $12,257.60 | $12,436.87 |
$-78.02 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
21.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 3:45pm ET | $264.59 | 47 | $12,435.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $263.53 | 47 | $12,385.91 | $12,387.05 |
$-49.82 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $260.92 | 47 | $12,263.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $261.48 | 47 | $12,289.56 | $12,413.37 |
+$26.32 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.07 | 48 | $12,387.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $256.51 | 48 | $12,312.48 | $12,338.49 |
$-74.88 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.50 | 48 | $12,216.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $253.73 | 48 | $12,179.04 | $12,301.53 |
$-36.96 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $253.14 | 48 | $12,150.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 3:10pm ET | $253.30 | 48 | $12,158.40 | $12,309.21 |
+$7.68 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $255.50 | 48 | $12,264.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $256.55 | 48 | $12,314.40 | $12,359.61 |
+$50.40 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $250.98 | 49 | $12,298.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.30 | 49 | $12,264.70 | $12,326.29 |
$-33.32 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.03 | 49 | $12,153.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $248.96 | 49 | $12,199.28 | $12,372.10 |
+$45.81 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 1:35pm ET | $247.78 | 49 | $12,141.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $247.98 | 49 | $12,151.02 | $12,381.90 |
+$9.80 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $250.35 | 49 | $12,267.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.38 | 49 | $12,219.62 | $12,334.37 |
$-47.53 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,334.37
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,334.37
Total Return:
+23.34%