MRK Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 39 trades in period
+12.54%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,433.70
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$11,936.46
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
46
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
14.9/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
4.2/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
46.6/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 45.8
30-Day Momentum
29
+1.6%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 31.7
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,977
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,936.46
Current Value
$13,433.70
Period P&L
$1,497.24
Max Drawdown
-8.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.40
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
27 /
12
Best Trade
+2.85%
Worst Trade
-1.45%
Avg Trade Return
+0.31%
Avg Hold Time
9.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$985,388.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,497.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,497.24
Gross Return
+12.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.54%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,936.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $115.58 | 103 | $11,904.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 1:35pm ET | $115.83 | 103 | $11,930.49 | $11,962.21 |
+$25.75 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:45pm ET | $119.44 | 100 | $11,944.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $119.19 | 100 | $11,919.00 | $11,936.71 |
$-25.50 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $119.95 | 99 | $11,875.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $120.27 | 99 | $11,906.73 | $11,968.39 |
+$31.68 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $117.62 | 101 | $11,879.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $117.96 | 101 | $11,913.96 | $12,002.73 |
+$34.34 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.49 | 99 | $11,928.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $121.29 | 99 | $12,007.22 | $12,081.93 |
+$79.20 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $120.42 | 100 | $12,042.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:00pm ET | $120.93 | 100 | $12,093.50 | $12,133.43 |
+$51.50 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $122.88 | 98 | $12,042.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $123.10 | 98 | $12,063.31 | $12,154.50 |
+$21.07 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.51 | 100 | $12,151.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $121.24 | 100 | $12,124.00 | $12,127.00 |
$-27.50 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $120.77 | 100 | $12,077.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $121.22 | 100 | $12,122.00 | $12,172.00 |
+$45.00 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $119.17 | 102 | $12,155.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $118.85 | 102 | $12,122.70 | $12,139.26 |
$-32.74 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $116.36 | 104 | $12,101.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:50am ET | $116.21 | 104 | $12,085.84 | $12,123.14 |
$-16.12 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $117.33 | 103 | $12,084.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $118.48 | 103 | $12,203.44 | $12,241.59 |
+$118.45 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $112.10 | 109 | $12,218.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $112.85 | 109 | $12,300.65 | $12,323.30 |
+$81.71 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.74 | 108 | $12,283.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $112.10 | 108 | $12,106.26 | $12,145.64 |
$-177.66 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $111.26 | 109 | $12,127.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $111.52 | 109 | $12,155.68 | $12,173.98 |
+$28.34 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $108.22 | 112 | $12,120.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $109.52 | 112 | $12,266.24 | $12,319.58 |
+$145.60 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $109.44 | 112 | $12,257.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.56 | 112 | $12,606.16 | $12,668.46 |
+$348.88 (+2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $111.27 | 113 | $12,573.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $112.32 | 113 | $12,692.16 | $12,787.11 |
+$118.65 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.18 | 112 | $12,676.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $113.86 | 112 | $12,752.88 | $12,863.83 |
+$76.72 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $112.89 | 113 | $12,756.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $111.73 | 113 | $12,625.49 | $12,732.75 |
$-131.08 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $111.59 | 114 | $12,721.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.88 | 114 | $12,867.75 | $12,878.75 |
+$146.00 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $113.00 | 113 | $12,769.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 2:45pm ET | $113.37 | 113 | $12,810.81 | $12,920.56 |
+$41.81 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $113.04 | 114 | $12,885.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $113.81 | 114 | $12,973.77 | $13,008.34 |
+$87.78 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $112.13 | 116 | $13,007.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $111.54 | 116 | $12,938.06 | $12,939.32 |
$-69.02 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $114.24 | 113 | $12,909.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 1:50pm ET | $114.60 | 113 | $12,949.24 | $12,979.44 |
+$40.12 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.18 | 115 | $12,900.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $113.93 | 115 | $13,101.95 | $13,181.26 |
+$201.82 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $121.96 | 108 | $13,172.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $120.93 | 108 | $13,060.44 | $13,069.48 |
$-111.78 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:45pm ET | $120.47 | 108 | $13,010.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $120.88 | 108 | $13,055.04 | $13,113.76 |
+$44.28 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $118.96 | 110 | $13,085.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:40am ET | $118.76 | 110 | $13,063.60 | $13,091.76 |
$-22.00 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $115.66 | 113 | $13,069.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $116.44 | 113 | $13,157.72 | $13,179.90 |
+$88.14 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $118.75 | 110 | $13,061.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $119.23 | 110 | $13,115.30 | $13,233.25 |
+$53.35 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $121.47 | 108 | $13,119.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $122.13 | 108 | $13,189.50 | $13,303.45 |
+$70.20 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $118.23 | 112 | $13,241.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $119.26 | 112 | $13,357.12 | $13,418.81 |
+$115.36 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $118.10 | 113 | $13,345.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $117.92 | 113 | $13,324.40 | $13,397.91 |
$-20.90 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 3:25pm ET | $122.30 | 109 | $13,330.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $120.84 | 109 | $13,171.56 | $13,238.77 |
$-159.14 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $115.04 | 115 | $13,229.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $115.88 | 115 | $13,326.20 | $13,335.94 |
+$97.17 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $114.50 | 116 | $13,282.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $115.10 | 116 | $13,351.60 | $13,404.96 |
+$69.02 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $113.79 | 117 | $13,313.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $113.63 | 117 | $13,294.71 | $13,386.24 |
$-18.72 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $117.60 | 113 | $13,288.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $118.02 | 113 | $13,336.26 | $13,433.70 |
+$47.46 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,433.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,433.70
Total Return:
+34.34%