MRNA Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 40 trades in period
+7.21%
Last 3 Months Return
$5,678.09
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$5,296.42
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality
10.1/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.1
30-Day Momentum
16
-5.2%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.9
Conf: 0.93×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,296.42
Current Value
$5,678.09
Period P&L
$381.70
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
27 /
13
Best Trade
+3.60%
Worst Trade
-6.52%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
5.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$434,341.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$381.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$381.70
Gross Return
+7.21%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.21%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $5,296.42 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 2:30pm ET | $61.87 | 87 | $5,382.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $61.85 | 87 | $5,380.94 | $5,392.95 |
$-1.75 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:40am ET | $59.33 | 90 | $5,340.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $58.82 | 90 | $5,293.80 | $5,346.60 |
$-46.35 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 1:40pm ET | $67.94 | 78 | $5,299.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 1:55pm ET | $68.43 | 78 | $5,337.54 | $5,384.82 |
+$38.22 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:15pm ET | $70.39 | 76 | $5,349.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $70.01 | 76 | $5,320.76 | $5,355.83 |
$-28.99 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $77.97 | 68 | $5,301.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $79.11 | 68 | $5,379.48 | $5,433.35 |
+$77.52 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $79.27 | 68 | $5,390.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $79.71 | 68 | $5,420.28 | $5,463.27 |
+$29.92 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 3:35pm ET | $74.10 | 73 | $5,408.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.13 | 73 | $5,484.49 | $5,538.82 |
+$75.55 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.45 | 75 | $5,508.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 12:15pm ET | $68.66 | 75 | $5,149.50 | $5,179.76 |
$-359.06 (-6.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $68.03 | 76 | $5,169.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $66.85 | 76 | $5,080.59 | $5,090.45 |
$-89.31 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $66.78 | 76 | $5,075.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $67.75 | 76 | $5,149.00 | $5,163.84 |
+$73.39 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 11:40am ET | $64.42 | 80 | $5,153.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 1:20pm ET | $64.01 | 80 | $5,120.80 | $5,131.04 |
$-32.80 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $61.86 | 82 | $5,072.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $61.82 | 82 | $5,069.24 | $5,127.76 |
$-3.28 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $58.84 | 87 | $5,119.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $59.35 | 87 | $5,163.45 | $5,172.12 |
+$44.36 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 12:20pm ET | $58.67 | 88 | $5,162.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 2:00pm ET | $58.67 | 88 | $5,162.52 | $5,171.68 |
$-0.44 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 2:15pm ET | $56.81 | 91 | $5,170.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:15pm ET | $56.99 | 91 | $5,186.09 | $5,187.61 |
+$15.93 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $55.39 | 93 | $5,151.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $55.76 | 93 | $5,186.14 | $5,222.48 |
+$34.88 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 2:15pm ET | $55.06 | 94 | $5,175.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $55.37 | 94 | $5,204.78 | $5,251.62 |
+$29.14 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $55.83 | 94 | $5,247.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 3:10pm ET | $55.90 | 94 | $5,254.60 | $5,258.44 |
+$6.82 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $55.62 | 94 | $5,228.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.62 | 94 | $5,416.28 | $5,446.44 |
+$188.00 (+3.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.53 | 96 | $5,426.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 1:50pm ET | $56.85 | 96 | $5,457.60 | $5,477.16 |
+$30.72 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $53.75 | 101 | $5,428.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.62 | 101 | $5,516.62 | $5,565.03 |
+$87.87 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $59.03 | 94 | $5,549.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 12:20pm ET | $59.68 | 94 | $5,609.91 | $5,625.67 |
+$60.64 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $59.17 | 95 | $5,620.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 1:55pm ET | $59.52 | 95 | $5,654.35 | $5,659.35 |
+$33.68 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:50pm ET | $63.49 | 89 | $5,650.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $64.32 | 89 | $5,724.04 | $5,732.78 |
+$73.43 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 3:25pm ET | $62.85 | 91 | $5,719.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $64.79 | 91 | $5,896.15 | $5,909.13 |
+$176.35 (+3.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $62.60 | 94 | $5,884.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 11:35am ET | $63.02 | 94 | $5,923.88 | $5,948.42 |
+$39.29 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $133.60 | 44 | $5,878.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $133.68 | 44 | $5,881.92 | $5,951.94 |
+$3.52 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $143.40 | 41 | $5,879.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:10pm ET | $144.30 | 41 | $5,916.50 | $5,988.84 |
+$36.90 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.44 | 38 | $5,906.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 12:15pm ET | $147.97 | 38 | $5,622.86 | $5,704.98 |
$-283.86 (-4.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 2:55pm ET | $141.84 | 40 | $5,673.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:45pm ET | $142.12 | 40 | $5,684.60 | $5,715.98 |
+$11.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:50pm ET | $140.87 | 40 | $5,634.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 3:25pm ET | $137.95 | 40 | $5,517.80 | $5,598.98 |
$-117.00 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $150.09 | 37 | $5,553.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 12:40pm ET | $148.13 | 37 | $5,480.81 | $5,526.65 |
$-72.34 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $143.05 | 38 | $5,435.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $144.57 | 38 | $5,493.66 | $5,584.41 |
+$57.76 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $135.63 | 41 | $5,560.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.29 | 41 | $5,382.69 | $5,406.47 |
$-177.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $146.90 | 36 | $5,288.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:35pm ET | $147.89 | 36 | $5,324.04 | $5,442.11 |
+$35.64 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.34 | 38 | $5,408.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:15am ET | $143.40 | 38 | $5,449.01 | $5,482.39 |
+$40.28 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $144.23 | 38 | $5,480.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $145.30 | 38 | $5,521.59 | $5,523.24 |
+$40.85 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $154.70 | 35 | $5,414.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $155.19 | 35 | $5,431.65 | $5,540.39 |
+$17.15 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.56 | 32 | $5,425.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $173.91 | 32 | $5,565.12 | $5,679.59 |
+$139.20 (+2.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $183.30 | 30 | $5,499.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $183.25 | 30 | $5,497.50 | $5,678.09 |
$-1.50 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,678.09
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,321.91
Total Return:
-43.22%