MRNA Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 37 trades in period
-12.27%
Last 3 Months Return
$5,394.70
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$6,149.04
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality
9.4/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 9.2
30-Day Momentum
21
+0.4%
30d Return
70%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.4
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,978
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,149.04
Current Value
$5,394.70
Period P&L
$-754.31
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
20 /
17
Best Trade
+3.55%
Worst Trade
-5.01%
Avg Trade Return
-0.33%
Avg Hold Time
6.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$409,313.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-754.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-754.31
Gross Return
-12.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.27%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $6,149.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.26 | 119 | $6,099.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.34 | 119 | $5,990.46 | $6,039.53 |
$-109.48 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:50pm ET | $53.20 | 113 | $6,011.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $53.10 | 113 | $6,000.30 | $6,028.23 |
$-11.30 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.80 | 114 | $6,019.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $50.78 | 114 | $5,788.92 | $5,797.95 |
$-230.28 (-3.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $47.90 | 121 | $5,795.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $47.66 | 121 | $5,766.86 | $5,768.91 |
$-29.04 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $50.65 | 113 | $5,723.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 113 | $5,436.66 | $5,482.12 |
$-286.79 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $48.33 | 113 | $5,461.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $48.72 | 113 | $5,504.80 | $5,525.62 |
+$43.50 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $49.07 | 112 | $5,495.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $49.42 | 112 | $5,535.60 | $5,565.38 |
+$39.76 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $50.91 | 109 | $5,549.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:25pm ET | $51.25 | 109 | $5,586.25 | $5,602.44 |
+$37.06 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $51.37 | 109 | $5,599.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.22 | 109 | $5,582.44 | $5,585.55 |
$-16.89 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $52.49 | 106 | $5,563.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $52.92 | 106 | $5,610.05 | $5,631.66 |
+$46.11 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.51 | 105 | $5,618.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.40 | 105 | $5,606.99 | $5,620.10 |
$-11.56 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $54.07 | 103 | $5,569.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $54.63 | 103 | $5,627.40 | $5,678.29 |
+$58.19 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.46 | 108 | $5,665.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $54.32 | 108 | $5,866.56 | $5,879.17 |
+$200.88 (+3.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $53.91 | 109 | $5,876.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $51.22 | 109 | $5,582.98 | $5,585.96 |
$-293.21 (-5.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
23.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.51 | 115 | $5,578.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $47.93 | 115 | $5,511.95 | $5,519.26 |
$-66.70 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $46.28 | 119 | $5,507.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $45.47 | 119 | $5,410.34 | $5,422.28 |
$-96.98 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $47.01 | 115 | $5,405.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $46.60 | 115 | $5,359.57 | $5,376.28 |
$-46.00 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $43.74 | 122 | $5,336.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $44.40 | 122 | $5,416.49 | $5,456.49 |
+$80.21 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $47.16 | 115 | $5,423.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.62 | 115 | $5,476.30 | $5,509.39 |
+$52.90 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:45pm ET | $48.20 | 114 | $5,494.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $48.36 | 114 | $5,513.04 | $5,527.63 |
+$18.24 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 2:30pm ET | $54.35 | 101 | $5,489.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $54.14 | 101 | $5,468.14 | $5,506.42 |
$-21.21 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.87 | 104 | $5,498.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.17 | 104 | $5,321.16 | $5,329.00 |
$-177.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.57 | 107 | $5,303.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $50.12 | 107 | $5,362.31 | $5,387.32 |
+$58.32 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 2:10pm ET | $47.98 | 112 | $5,373.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 3:05pm ET | $48.14 | 112 | $5,391.20 | $5,404.76 |
+$17.44 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $45.69 | 118 | $5,392.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.99 | 118 | $5,427.41 | $5,440.16 |
+$35.40 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.61 | 114 | $5,427.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $46.90 | 114 | $5,346.60 | $5,359.22 |
$-80.94 (-1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 12:10pm ET | $46.97 | 114 | $5,354.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:05pm ET | $47.11 | 114 | $5,370.54 | $5,375.18 |
+$15.96 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 3:25pm ET | $47.20 | 113 | $5,333.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.45 | 113 | $5,361.85 | $5,403.79 |
+$28.61 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.23 | 116 | $5,362.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $46.60 | 116 | $5,405.02 | $5,446.13 |
+$42.34 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 1:40pm ET | $48.42 | 112 | $5,423.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 2:15pm ET | $48.85 | 112 | $5,471.20 | $5,494.29 |
+$48.16 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.14 | 124 | $5,473.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $44.78 | 124 | $5,552.72 | $5,573.79 |
+$79.50 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.67 | 110 | $5,573.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $49.11 | 110 | $5,402.10 | $5,402.19 |
$-171.60 (-3.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $47.79 | 113 | $5,400.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $47.16 | 113 | $5,329.08 | $5,331.00 |
$-71.19 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.03 | 113 | $5,314.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $48.05 | 113 | $5,429.65 | $5,446.34 |
+$115.34 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $50.05 | 108 | $5,405.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $51.03 | 108 | $5,511.24 | $5,552.18 |
+$105.84 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $50.77 | 109 | $5,533.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $51.45 | 109 | $5,608.05 | $5,626.30 |
+$74.12 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.31 | 91 | $5,578.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $58.76 | 91 | $5,347.16 | $5,394.70 |
$-231.60 (-4.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,394.70
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,605.30
Total Return:
-46.05%