MS Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 43 trades in period
+7.27%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,297.84
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$12,396.85
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
41
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.8/35
Total Return
12.7/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
41.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 41.3
30-Day Momentum
12
-0.6%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,396.85
Current Value
$13,297.84
Period P&L
$900.94
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
26 /
17
Best Trade
+3.27%
Worst Trade
-1.64%
Avg Trade Return
+0.17%
Avg Hold Time
6.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,099,764.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$900.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$900.94
Gross Return
+7.27%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.27%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,396.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $224.90 | 55 | $12,369.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:30am ET | $223.19 | 55 | $12,275.45 | $12,302.57 |
$-94.32 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 12:45pm ET | $222.96 | 55 | $12,262.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 2:15pm ET | $222.47 | 55 | $12,235.85 | $12,275.89 |
$-26.68 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:20pm ET | $212.74 | 57 | $12,126.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:15pm ET | $212.90 | 57 | $12,135.30 | $12,285.01 |
+$9.12 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $212.61 | 57 | $12,118.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.13 | 57 | $11,920.13 | $12,086.37 |
$-198.65 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $208.04 | 58 | $12,066.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $209.86 | 58 | $12,171.88 | $12,191.93 |
+$105.56 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $220.48 | 55 | $12,126.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $220.70 | 55 | $12,138.50 | $12,204.03 |
+$12.10 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $221.85 | 55 | $12,202.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $222.57 | 55 | $12,241.08 | $12,243.08 |
+$39.05 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 1:55pm ET | $223.15 | 54 | $12,050.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $223.63 | 54 | $12,076.29 | $12,269.00 |
+$25.92 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.04 | 55 | $12,211.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $220.25 | 55 | $12,113.96 | $12,171.03 |
$-97.97 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 11:35am ET | $227.92 | 53 | $12,079.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $228.20 | 53 | $12,094.60 | $12,185.87 |
+$14.84 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 3:00pm ET | $227.84 | 53 | $12,075.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:35pm ET | $228.72 | 53 | $12,122.16 | $12,232.51 |
+$46.64 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $208.88 | 58 | $12,115.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $215.72 | 58 | $12,511.76 | $12,629.23 |
+$396.72 (+3.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 11:40am ET | $211.86 | 59 | $12,499.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:55pm ET | $211.33 | 59 | $12,468.47 | $12,597.96 |
$-31.27 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 1:25pm ET | $218.14 | 57 | $12,433.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $218.59 | 57 | $12,459.63 | $12,623.61 |
+$25.65 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $214.00 | 58 | $12,412.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $214.09 | 58 | $12,417.22 | $12,628.83 |
+$5.22 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $212.81 | 59 | $12,555.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:25pm ET | $214.24 | 59 | $12,639.87 | $12,712.91 |
+$84.08 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $211.69 | 60 | $12,701.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:10pm ET | $211.50 | 60 | $12,690.00 | $12,701.50 |
$-11.41 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $203.66 | 62 | $12,626.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.50 | 62 | $12,803.00 | $12,877.58 |
+$176.08 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $208.97 | 61 | $12,747.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $210.92 | 61 | $12,866.12 | $12,996.53 |
+$118.95 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $210.02 | 61 | $12,811.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:40pm ET | $209.64 | 61 | $12,788.04 | $12,973.34 |
$-23.19 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $218.47 | 59 | $12,889.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.43 | 59 | $12,828.37 | $12,911.98 |
$-61.36 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $212.80 | 60 | $12,768.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $214.74 | 60 | $12,884.40 | $13,028.38 |
+$116.40 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 12:20pm ET | $215.52 | 60 | $12,931.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $215.33 | 60 | $12,919.80 | $13,016.98 |
$-11.40 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $215.49 | 60 | $12,929.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.20 | 60 | $13,092.00 | $13,179.58 |
+$162.60 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 1:30pm ET | $218.23 | 60 | $13,093.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 2:05pm ET | $218.72 | 60 | $13,123.20 | $13,208.98 |
+$29.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 1:35pm ET | $218.45 | 60 | $13,106.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $219.25 | 60 | $13,155.00 | $13,257.28 |
+$48.30 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $215.64 | 61 | $13,154.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $216.82 | 61 | $13,226.02 | $13,329.26 |
+$71.98 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $212.49 | 62 | $13,174.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $213.24 | 62 | $13,220.57 | $13,375.14 |
+$45.88 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $214.81 | 62 | $13,318.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET | $214.40 | 62 | $13,292.73 | $13,349.71 |
$-25.43 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $214.67 | 62 | $13,309.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $213.20 | 62 | $13,218.09 | $13,258.26 |
$-91.45 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 1:35pm ET | $214.76 | 61 | $13,100.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $214.58 | 61 | $13,089.38 | $13,247.58 |
$-10.68 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $214.26 | 61 | $13,070.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.80 | 61 | $13,042.10 | $13,219.67 |
$-27.91 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $210.63 | 62 | $13,059.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $213.30 | 62 | $13,224.91 | $13,385.52 |
+$165.85 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.58 | 62 | $13,365.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $217.21 | 62 | $13,467.33 | $13,486.95 |
+$101.43 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $215.83 | 62 | $13,381.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $216.57 | 62 | $13,427.65 | $13,533.14 |
+$46.19 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.61 | 63 | $13,457.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $215.82 | 63 | $13,596.35 | $13,672.06 |
+$138.92 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 3:45pm ET | $214.13 | 63 | $13,490.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.97 | 63 | $13,354.11 | $13,535.98 |
$-136.08 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.84 | 65 | $13,379.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:25am ET | $203.03 | 65 | $13,196.95 | $13,353.33 |
$-182.65 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $206.25 | 64 | $13,200.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.34 | 64 | $13,013.76 | $13,167.09 |
$-186.24 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.10 | 65 | $13,136.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:30am ET | $202.92 | 65 | $13,189.80 | $13,220.39 |
+$53.30 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.31 | 64 | $13,139.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $204.38 | 64 | $13,080.32 | $13,160.83 |
$-59.56 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $198.88 | 66 | $13,125.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $200.58 | 66 | $13,238.28 | $13,273.36 |
+$112.53 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 11:10am ET | $194.97 | 68 | $13,257.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $195.33 | 68 | $13,282.44 | $13,297.84 |
+$24.48 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,297.84
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,297.84
Total Return:
+32.98%