MSFT Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 36 trades in period
-3.83%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,971.58
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,328.89
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
11.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.8
30-Day Momentum
12
+0.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.2
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,328.89
Current Value
$8,971.58
Period P&L
$-357.25
Max Drawdown
-10.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
18 /
18
Best Trade
+1.61%
Worst Trade
-2.43%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
8.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$633,465.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-357.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-357.25
Gross Return
-3.83%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.83%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,328.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.55 | 25 | $9,288.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $376.55 | 25 | $9,413.72 | $9,453.66 |
+$124.84 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $360.31 | 26 | $9,368.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 2:05pm ET | $351.57 | 26 | $9,140.82 | $9,226.42 |
$-227.24 (-2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
4.5h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:55am ET | $371.99 | 24 | $8,927.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 1:15pm ET | $369.98 | 24 | $8,879.52 | $9,178.06 |
$-48.36 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $385.94 | 23 | $8,876.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $386.42 | 23 | $8,887.66 | $9,189.10 |
+$11.04 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $383.75 | 23 | $8,826.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $383.03 | 23 | $8,809.70 | $9,172.55 |
$-16.55 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $383.25 | 23 | $8,814.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $384.42 | 23 | $8,841.66 | $9,199.48 |
+$26.93 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $390.37 | 23 | $8,978.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.02 | 23 | $8,763.57 | $8,984.54 |
$-214.94 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $394.77 | 22 | $8,684.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $396.45 | 22 | $8,721.79 | $9,021.39 |
+$36.85 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $400.41 | 22 | $8,809.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 11:35am ET | $391.88 | 22 | $8,621.36 | $8,833.73 |
$-187.66 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $400.11 | 22 | $8,802.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $401.60 | 22 | $8,835.09 | $8,866.29 |
+$32.56 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $397.54 | 22 | $8,745.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.60 | 22 | $8,681.20 | $8,801.61 |
$-64.68 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $385.66 | 22 | $8,484.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $380.30 | 22 | $8,366.60 | $8,683.69 |
$-117.92 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $383.40 | 22 | $8,434.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.35 | 22 | $8,565.59 | $8,814.48 |
+$130.78 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $397.45 | 22 | $8,743.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $393.13 | 22 | $8,648.86 | $8,719.44 |
$-95.04 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $451.70 | 19 | $8,582.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $458.36 | 19 | $8,708.84 | $8,845.98 |
+$126.54 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $481.45 | 18 | $8,666.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $489.20 | 18 | $8,805.60 | $8,985.48 |
+$139.50 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $489.04 | 18 | $8,802.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $491.01 | 18 | $8,838.09 | $9,020.85 |
+$35.37 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $500.86 | 18 | $9,015.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:00pm ET | $499.92 | 18 | $8,998.47 | $9,003.87 |
$-16.98 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $504.08 | 17 | $8,569.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $506.67 | 17 | $8,613.39 | $9,047.82 |
+$43.95 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.45 | 18 | $9,008.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 12:25pm ET | $493.56 | 18 | $8,884.08 | $8,923.89 |
$-123.93 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 1:35pm ET | $493.90 | 18 | $8,890.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $494.45 | 18 | $8,900.10 | $8,933.79 |
+$9.90 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $491.54 | 18 | $8,847.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $490.14 | 18 | $8,822.52 | $8,908.59 |
$-25.20 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $480.55 | 18 | $8,649.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $484.18 | 18 | $8,715.24 | $8,974.02 |
+$65.43 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $480.99 | 18 | $8,657.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:40am ET | $481.47 | 18 | $8,666.46 | $8,982.66 |
+$8.64 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:35pm ET | $482.88 | 18 | $8,691.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:50pm ET | $482.44 | 18 | $8,683.92 | $8,974.83 |
$-7.83 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $484.74 | 18 | $8,725.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $488.86 | 18 | $8,799.48 | $9,048.99 |
+$74.16 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $490.90 | 18 | $8,836.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $496.31 | 18 | $8,933.58 | $9,146.28 |
+$97.29 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $510.55 | 17 | $8,679.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:50am ET | $510.09 | 17 | $8,671.53 | $9,138.46 |
$-7.82 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $497.29 | 18 | $8,951.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $495.96 | 18 | $8,927.28 | $9,114.61 |
$-23.85 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $506.41 | 17 | $8,608.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 12:15pm ET | $501.16 | 17 | $8,519.65 | $9,025.29 |
$-89.32 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $491.64 | 18 | $8,849.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $492.30 | 18 | $8,861.40 | $9,037.17 |
+$11.88 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 2:35pm ET | $491.83 | 18 | $8,852.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.09 | 18 | $8,785.66 | $8,969.89 |
$-67.28 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $505.37 | 17 | $8,591.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.61 | 17 | $8,510.37 | $8,888.96 |
$-80.93 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $492.79 | 18 | $8,870.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $494.86 | 18 | $8,907.48 | $8,926.22 |
+$37.26 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $492.70 | 18 | $8,868.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $495.59 | 18 | $8,920.62 | $8,978.24 |
+$52.02 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $495.00 | 18 | $8,910.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $494.63 | 18 | $8,903.34 | $8,971.58 |
$-6.66 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,971.58
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,028.42
Total Return:
-10.28%