NFLX Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 40 trades in period
+2.45%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,735.63
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$11,455.13
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
29.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 29.5
30-Day Momentum
27
+0.4%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.6
Conf: 1.00×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,455.13
Current Value
$11,735.63
Period P&L
$280.47
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
26 /
14
Best Trade
+2.15%
Worst Trade
-1.88%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
7.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$929,102.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$280.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$280.47
Gross Return
+2.45%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.45%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,455.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $72.53 | 157 | $11,387.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $72.50 | 157 | $11,381.72 | $11,449.67 |
$-5.49 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 1:00pm ET | $71.67 | 159 | $11,395.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 2:15pm ET | $72.00 | 159 | $11,448.79 | $11,502.93 |
+$53.26 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $73.63 | 156 | $11,486.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.49 | 156 | $11,620.44 | $11,637.09 |
+$134.16 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.35 | 158 | $11,589.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.07 | 158 | $11,545.06 | $11,592.86 |
$-44.24 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.10 | 150 | $11,565.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $76.36 | 150 | $11,453.25 | $11,481.11 |
$-111.75 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $76.56 | 149 | $11,407.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $76.50 | 149 | $11,398.50 | $11,472.17 |
$-8.94 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.32 | 154 | $11,445.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $74.58 | 154 | $11,485.74 | $11,512.63 |
+$40.46 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $72.62 | 158 | $11,473.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $72.87 | 158 | $11,513.46 | $11,552.13 |
+$39.50 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $74.22 | 155 | $11,504.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:00pm ET | $74.07 | 155 | $11,480.85 | $11,528.90 |
$-23.23 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $73.42 | 157 | $11,526.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $73.72 | 157 | $11,574.04 | $11,576.00 |
+$47.10 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $73.11 | 158 | $11,551.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $73.48 | 158 | $11,609.84 | $11,634.46 |
+$58.46 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:05pm ET | $68.44 | 169 | $11,567.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $68.87 | 169 | $11,639.03 | $11,706.28 |
+$71.83 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 1:55pm ET | $67.40 | 173 | $11,661.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:00pm ET | $67.11 | 173 | $11,610.89 | $11,656.11 |
$-50.17 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $69.97 | 166 | $11,615.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $68.65 | 166 | $11,396.73 | $11,437.82 |
$-218.29 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
21.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:00pm ET | $70.73 | 161 | $11,387.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.25 | 161 | $11,632.25 | $11,682.54 |
+$244.72 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $72.00 | 162 | $11,664.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $72.19 | 162 | $11,694.78 | $11,712.51 |
+$29.97 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.14 | 162 | $11,686.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:05am ET | $71.72 | 162 | $11,618.64 | $11,644.47 |
$-68.04 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $73.64 | 158 | $11,635.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 1:25pm ET | $73.46 | 158 | $11,607.47 | $11,616.03 |
$-28.44 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $73.36 | 158 | $11,590.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $73.65 | 158 | $11,636.46 | $11,662.40 |
+$46.37 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $73.90 | 157 | $11,602.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $74.18 | 157 | $11,647.04 | $11,707.14 |
+$44.74 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $74.58 | 156 | $11,634.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $74.82 | 156 | $11,671.14 | $11,743.80 |
+$36.66 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $77.79 | 150 | $11,667.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $76.61 | 150 | $11,491.50 | $11,567.55 |
$-176.25 (-1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:30pm ET | $78.60 | 147 | $11,554.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $78.72 | 147 | $11,571.84 | $11,585.19 |
+$17.64 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 3:15pm ET | $80.38 | 144 | $11,574.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $80.68 | 144 | $11,618.64 | $11,629.11 |
+$43.92 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $79.61 | 146 | $11,622.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $80.02 | 146 | $11,682.77 | $11,689.55 |
+$60.44 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 3:20pm ET | $80.22 | 145 | $11,631.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.54 | 145 | $11,677.58 | $11,735.23 |
+$45.68 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $81.76 | 143 | $11,691.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $82.12 | 143 | $11,743.16 | $11,786.71 |
+$51.48 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $79.53 | 148 | $11,769.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 12:55pm ET | $79.82 | 148 | $11,812.62 | $11,829.63 |
+$42.92 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.00 | 146 | $11,826.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $81.30 | 146 | $11,869.80 | $11,873.43 |
+$43.80 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $80.81 | 146 | $11,797.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $80.95 | 146 | $11,818.70 | $11,894.60 |
+$21.17 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $82.09 | 144 | $11,820.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:00pm ET | $82.35 | 144 | $11,858.40 | $11,932.04 |
+$37.44 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $78.68 | 151 | $11,879.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.47 | 151 | $11,697.97 | $11,750.08 |
$-181.96 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.45 | 153 | $11,696.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $76.65 | 153 | $11,728.21 | $11,781.45 |
+$31.37 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $75.82 | 155 | $11,751.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 3:40pm ET | $75.94 | 155 | $11,771.47 | $11,800.93 |
+$19.48 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $80.38 | 146 | $11,735.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.28 | 146 | $11,574.88 | $11,639.96 |
$-160.97 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.72 | 149 | $11,580.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $77.62 | 149 | $11,565.38 | $11,625.06 |
$-14.90 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $75.57 | 153 | $11,562.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $75.68 | 153 | $11,579.04 | $11,641.89 |
+$16.83 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $71.64 | 162 | $11,604.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 2:50pm ET | $71.86 | 162 | $11,640.51 | $11,677.53 |
+$35.64 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.87 | 160 | $11,659.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.52 | 160 | $11,603.20 | $11,621.53 |
$-56.00 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $71.20 | 163 | $11,605.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $71.90 | 163 | $11,719.68 | $11,735.63 |
+$114.10 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,735.63
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,735.63
Total Return:
+17.36%