NIO Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 41 trades in period
+0.00%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,249.83
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$-203.46
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
11.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.5
30-Day Momentum
16
-2.9%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
14
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.4
Conf: 0.98×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$-203.46
Current Value
$9,249.83
Period P&L
$423.18
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
23 /
18
Best Trade
+2.87%
Worst Trade
-5.27%
Avg Trade Return
+0.01%
Avg Hold Time
13.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$774,167.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$423.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$423.18
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $-203.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 2:40pm ET | $4.95 | 1,866 | $9,236.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $4.84 | 1,866 | $9,031.44 | $9,034.51 |
$-205.26 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $4.78 | 1,888 | $9,034.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:10pm ET | $4.76 | 1,888 | $8,986.88 | $8,987.31 |
$-47.20 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 1,808 | $8,985.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $5.05 | 1,808 | $9,139.44 | $9,140.99 |
+$153.68 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 2:40pm ET | $4.95 | 1,866 | $9,236.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.99 | 1,866 | $9,302.01 | $9,206.30 |
+$65.31 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
11.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 3:00pm ET | $4.90 | 1,879 | $9,203.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.92 | 1,879 | $9,238.48 | $9,241.06 |
+$34.76 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.74 | 1,949 | $9,237.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $4.80 | 1,949 | $9,364.94 | $9,368.72 |
+$127.66 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $4.79 | 1,955 | $9,364.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.93 | 1,955 | $9,633.65 | $9,637.92 |
+$269.20 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:05pm ET | $5.03 | 1,916 | $9,637.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $5.01 | 1,916 | $9,599.16 | $9,599.60 |
$-38.32 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $5.05 | 1,902 | $9,595.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $5.05 | 1,902 | $9,605.10 | $9,609.11 |
+$9.51 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.84 | 1,983 | $9,607.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 11:35am ET | $4.84 | 1,983 | $9,607.63 | $9,609.11 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $4.86 | 1,979 | $9,608.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.85 | 1,979 | $9,591.62 | $9,592.69 |
$-16.43 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.74 | 2,021 | $9,589.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.72 | 2,021 | $9,538.31 | $9,541.36 |
$-51.33 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.65 | 2,051 | $9,537.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.68 | 2,051 | $9,598.68 | $9,602.89 |
+$61.53 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.53 | 2,117 | $9,600.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $4.53 | 2,117 | $9,587.26 | $9,589.55 |
$-13.34 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $4.57 | 2,098 | $9,587.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 2:40pm ET | $4.59 | 2,098 | $9,629.82 | $9,631.51 |
+$41.96 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 2:40pm ET | $4.68 | 2,060 | $9,630.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:20pm ET | $4.68 | 2,060 | $9,651.10 | $9,652.11 |
+$20.60 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.73 | 2,040 | $9,649.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.82 | 2,040 | $9,822.60 | $9,825.51 |
+$173.40 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.84 | 2,030 | $9,825.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $4.84 | 2,030 | $9,825.20 | $9,825.51 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $4.76 | 2,062 | $9,825.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.74 | 2,062 | $9,773.88 | $9,773.96 |
$-51.55 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.63 | 2,111 | $9,773.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $4.59 | 2,111 | $9,694.13 | $9,694.16 |
$-79.80 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 1:05pm ET | $4.72 | 2,053 | $9,690.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:45pm ET | $4.74 | 2,053 | $9,731.22 | $9,734.60 |
+$40.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.59 | 2,118 | $9,732.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.51 | 2,118 | $9,562.77 | $9,565.16 |
$-169.44 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 1:05pm ET | $4.55 | 2,102 | $9,564.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $4.55 | 2,102 | $9,564.10 | $9,565.16 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.53 | 2,111 | $9,562.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $4.51 | 2,111 | $9,510.06 | $9,512.38 |
$-52.78 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $4.55 | 2,090 | $9,509.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.60 | 2,090 | $9,614.00 | $9,616.88 |
+$104.50 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.51 | 2,134 | $9,613.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.49 | 2,134 | $9,592.33 | $9,595.54 |
$-21.34 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 3:05pm ET | $4.45 | 2,158 | $9,592.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 3:10pm ET | $4.43 | 2,158 | $9,559.94 | $9,563.17 |
$-32.37 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.36 | 2,190 | $9,559.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.33 | 2,190 | $9,482.92 | $9,486.74 |
$-76.43 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $4.31 | 2,201 | $9,486.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $4.34 | 2,201 | $9,547.28 | $9,547.71 |
+$60.97 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 3:10pm ET | $4.27 | 2,235 | $9,543.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.05 | 2,235 | $9,040.58 | $9,044.84 |
$-502.87 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.94 | 2,295 | $9,042.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $3.91 | 2,295 | $8,977.35 | $8,979.43 |
$-65.41 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $3.74 | 2,400 | $8,975.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $3.79 | 2,400 | $9,096.00 | $9,099.67 |
+$120.24 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.75 | 2,426 | $9,097.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:35am ET | $3.77 | 2,426 | $9,133.89 | $9,136.06 |
+$36.39 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $3.69 | 2,473 | $9,132.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $3.71 | 2,473 | $9,182.99 | $9,186.26 |
+$50.20 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $3.60 | 2,551 | $9,183.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.70 | 2,551 | $9,438.70 | $9,441.36 |
+$255.10 (+2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $3.69 | 2,555 | $9,440.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:45am ET | $3.63 | 2,555 | $9,274.65 | $9,275.29 |
$-166.07 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $3.60 | 2,576 | $9,273.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $3.61 | 2,576 | $9,299.10 | $9,300.53 |
+$25.24 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 2:30pm ET | $3.62 | 2,572 | $9,297.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $3.63 | 2,572 | $9,336.10 | $9,338.85 |
+$38.32 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.63 | 2,576 | $9,338.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $3.63 | 2,576 | $9,363.76 | $9,364.61 |
+$25.76 (+0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $3.71 | 2,524 | $9,364.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.69 | 2,524 | $9,313.56 | $9,314.13 |
$-50.48 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.62 | 2,572 | $9,310.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $3.60 | 2,572 | $9,246.34 | $9,249.83 |
$-64.30 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,249.83
Net Profit/Loss:
$-750.17
Total Return:
-7.50%