NVDA Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 39 trades in period
+16.04%
Last 3 Months Return
$18,443.90
Current Value
77%
Win Rate
$15,894.63
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
61
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
25.7/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality
62.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 61.3
30-Day Momentum
55
+3.5%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
12
Trades
2.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 58.9
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$15,894.63
Current Value
$18,443.90
Period P&L
$2,549.25
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.49
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
30 /
9
Best Trade
+2.30%
Worst Trade
-1.80%
Avg Trade Return
+0.39%
Avg Hold Time
4.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,326,542.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,549.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,549.25
Gross Return
+16.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.04%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $15,894.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.57 | 79 | $15,766.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $200.67 | 79 | $15,852.93 | $15,981.55 |
+$86.90 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:00pm ET | $194.00 | 82 | $15,908.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 2:15pm ET | $195.07 | 82 | $15,996.15 | $16,069.70 |
+$88.15 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $193.66 | 82 | $15,880.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:10pm ET | $194.51 | 82 | $15,949.82 | $16,139.40 |
+$69.70 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.65 | 83 | $16,072.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $196.22 | 83 | $16,286.27 | $16,352.72 |
+$213.32 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $195.67 | 83 | $16,240.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $192.15 | 83 | $15,948.45 | $16,060.56 |
$-292.16 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $202.22 | 79 | $15,975.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $201.36 | 79 | $15,907.44 | $15,992.62 |
$-67.94 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 3:40pm ET | $209.64 | 76 | $15,932.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $210.23 | 76 | $15,977.48 | $16,037.46 |
+$44.84 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $210.64 | 76 | $16,008.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:05pm ET | $208.23 | 76 | $15,825.48 | $15,854.30 |
$-183.16 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $206.18 | 76 | $15,669.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 2:15pm ET | $207.04 | 76 | $15,735.04 | $15,919.66 |
+$65.36 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $203.38 | 78 | $15,864.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:45pm ET | $203.40 | 78 | $15,865.20 | $15,920.83 |
+$1.17 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 12:25pm ET | $205.09 | 77 | $15,791.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $206.35 | 77 | $15,889.33 | $16,018.62 |
+$97.79 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:10pm ET | $213.32 | 75 | $15,999.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $212.79 | 75 | $15,959.25 | $15,978.87 |
$-39.75 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $206.04 | 77 | $15,865.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $208.10 | 77 | $16,023.70 | $16,137.49 |
+$158.62 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $198.95 | 81 | $16,114.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:00pm ET | $198.08 | 81 | $16,044.48 | $16,067.42 |
$-70.07 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $196.86 | 81 | $15,945.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:00pm ET | $197.58 | 81 | $16,003.98 | $16,125.79 |
+$58.37 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $190.06 | 84 | $15,965.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $194.24 | 84 | $16,316.58 | $16,477.33 |
+$351.54 (+2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:40pm ET | $207.19 | 79 | $16,368.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.95 | 79 | $16,744.05 | $16,853.37 |
+$376.04 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:45pm ET | $220.24 | 76 | $16,738.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.50 | 76 | $16,834.00 | $16,949.13 |
+$95.76 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $222.30 | 76 | $16,894.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:50pm ET | $222.31 | 76 | $16,895.57 | $16,949.90 |
+$0.77 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $217.56 | 77 | $16,752.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.82 | 77 | $17,080.14 | $17,277.92 |
+$328.02 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $223.06 | 77 | $17,175.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $225.20 | 77 | $17,340.40 | $17,443.01 |
+$165.09 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $225.02 | 77 | $17,326.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $226.31 | 77 | $17,425.87 | $17,542.34 |
+$99.33 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $225.91 | 77 | $17,395.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $225.88 | 77 | $17,392.38 | $17,539.64 |
$-2.70 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $216.99 | 80 | $17,359.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $219.48 | 80 | $17,558.00 | $17,738.44 |
+$198.80 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $215.32 | 82 | $17,656.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $215.76 | 82 | $17,692.32 | $17,774.11 |
+$35.67 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $209.28 | 84 | $17,579.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $209.87 | 84 | $17,628.66 | $17,823.24 |
+$49.13 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $211.41 | 84 | $17,758.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $213.05 | 84 | $17,896.20 | $17,960.58 |
+$137.34 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $217.59 | 82 | $17,842.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $217.74 | 82 | $17,854.68 | $17,972.88 |
+$12.30 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.66 | 83 | $17,899.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $218.01 | 83 | $18,095.24 | $18,168.34 |
+$195.46 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 1:05pm ET | $224.93 | 80 | $17,994.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $225.19 | 80 | $18,015.20 | $18,189.20 |
+$20.86 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $228.60 | 79 | $18,059.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.58 | 79 | $18,215.82 | $18,345.62 |
+$156.42 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $228.09 | 80 | $18,247.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $226.20 | 80 | $18,096.01 | $18,194.43 |
$-151.19 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $223.85 | 81 | $18,132.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $224.20 | 81 | $18,160.20 | $18,222.38 |
+$27.95 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 12:40pm ET | $218.68 | 83 | $18,150.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $219.37 | 83 | $18,207.71 | $18,279.65 |
+$57.27 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $211.82 | 86 | $18,216.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $213.24 | 86 | $18,339.07 | $18,402.20 |
+$122.55 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $215.01 | 85 | $18,275.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $216.05 | 85 | $18,364.25 | $18,490.60 |
+$88.40 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $219.18 | 84 | $18,411.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $219.82 | 84 | $18,464.46 | $18,543.52 |
+$52.92 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $229.10 | 80 | $18,328.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $227.86 | 80 | $18,228.80 | $18,444.32 |
$-99.20 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.12 | 83 | $18,435.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $222.11 | 83 | $18,435.13 | $18,443.90 |
$-0.42 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,443.90
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,443.90
Total Return:
+84.44%