Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:33:13

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 9.3/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 8.9

30-Day Momentum

7
-0.5%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.4 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,993.57
Current Value
$9,817.87
Period P&L
$824.34
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
20 / 10
Best Trade
+4.62%
Worst Trade
-2.87%
Avg Trade Return
+0.31%
Avg Hold Time
4.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$575,197.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$824.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$824.34
Gross Return
+9.17%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.17%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,993.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $172.54 52 $8,972.34
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:20pm ET $173.23 52 $9,007.96 $9,029.15 +$35.62
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $165.63 54 $8,944.02
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $163.56 54 $8,832.24 $8,917.37 $-111.78
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $161.35 55 $8,874.25
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET $164.53 55 $9,049.15 $9,092.27 +$174.90
(+2.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
4 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 2:10pm ET $181.08 50 $9,054.00
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $181.90 50 $9,095.00 $9,133.27 +$41.00
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.4h held
5 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:50am ET $182.89 49 $8,961.61
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:05am ET $185.84 49 $9,106.16 $9,277.82 +$144.55
(+1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
6 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $194.81 47 $9,156.07
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 1:40pm ET $194.46 47 $9,139.62 $9,261.37 $-16.45
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
7 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $191.99 48 $9,215.52
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:10am ET $194.90 48 $9,354.96 $9,400.81 +$139.44
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
8 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $182.71 51 $9,317.96
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 1:20pm ET $183.48 51 $9,357.48 $9,440.33 +$39.52
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
9 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:30am ET $188.46 50 $9,423.00
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:15am ET $190.48 50 $9,524.00 $9,541.33 +$101.00
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
10 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 11:45am ET $192.18 49 $9,416.82
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 12:25pm ET $193.39 49 $9,476.11 $9,600.62 +$59.29
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
11 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 12:30pm ET $183.81 52 $9,558.12
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 12:55pm ET $185.70 52 $9,656.14 $9,698.64 +$98.02
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
12 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 2:55pm ET $182.18 53 $9,655.28
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 3:15pm ET $183.18 53 $9,708.54 $9,751.90 +$53.26
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
13 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $190.15 51 $9,697.40
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $192.04 51 $9,794.04 $9,848.54 +$96.64
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held
14 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 11:55am ET $191.31 51 $9,756.81
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 2:10pm ET $191.43 51 $9,762.68 $9,854.41 +$5.87
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:50pm ET $247.50 39 $9,652.50
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $244.72 39 $9,544.08 $9,745.99 $-108.42
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $236.57 41 $9,699.51
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $233.92 41 $9,590.72 $9,637.20 $-108.79
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET $228.35 42 $9,590.63
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:55am ET $231.66 42 $9,729.72 $9,776.29 +$139.09
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:20am ET $219.10 44 $9,640.18
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 1:35pm ET $215.88 44 $9,498.72 $9,634.83 $-141.46
(-1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $211.94 45 $9,537.30
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $213.27 45 $9,597.15 $9,694.68 +$59.85
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET $198.20 48 $9,513.60
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET $207.36 48 $9,953.28 $10,134.36 +$439.68
(+4.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:55am ET $179.74 56 $10,065.44
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 10:55am ET $182.86 56 $10,240.16 $10,309.08 +$174.72
(+1.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $188.88 54 $10,199.52
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET $193.45 54 $10,446.03 $10,555.59 +$246.51
(+2.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $187.89 56 $10,521.84
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:20am ET $182.51 56 $10,220.28 $10,254.03 $-301.56
(-2.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $170.99 59 $10,088.41
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 3:05pm ET $166.28 59 $9,810.52 $9,976.14 $-277.89
(-2.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET $154.14 64 $9,864.96
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 11:40am ET $152.49 64 $9,759.36 $9,870.54 $-105.60
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET $149.77 65 $9,735.37
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $149.25 65 $9,701.25 $9,836.42 $-34.12
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $146.86 66 $9,692.76
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:50am ET $148.32 66 $9,789.12 $9,932.78 +$96.36
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
28 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 1:00pm ET $144.30 68 $9,812.40
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:20pm ET $144.49 68 $9,825.32 $9,945.70 +$12.92
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
29 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET $141.28 70 $9,889.60
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:45am ET $139.43 70 $9,760.10 $9,816.20 $-129.50
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
30 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:10pm ET $144.47 67 $9,679.49
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $144.49 67 $9,681.16 $9,817.87 +$1.67
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,817.87
Net Profit/Loss: $-182.13
Total Return: -1.82%
Back to Professor Mean