PANW Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 39 trades in period
+3.06%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,934.94
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$9,639.51
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
11.2/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 11.1
30-Day Momentum
33
+2.1%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.8
Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,639.51
Current Value
$9,934.94
Period P&L
$295.42
Max Drawdown
-24.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
23 /
16
Best Trade
+4.92%
Worst Trade
-3.29%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
3.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$760,473.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$295.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$295.42
Gross Return
+3.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.06%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,639.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:10pm ET | $286.95 | 33 | $9,469.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $287.07 | 33 | $9,473.31 | $9,643.49 |
+$3.96 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $291.43 | 33 | $9,617.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $295.67 | 33 | $9,757.11 | $9,783.25 |
+$139.76 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $352.86 | 27 | $9,527.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $352.63 | 27 | $9,521.01 | $9,777.04 |
$-6.21 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.99 | 28 | $9,463.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $354.64 | 28 | $9,929.78 | $10,243.10 |
+$466.06 (+4.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $351.56 | 29 | $10,195.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $347.77 | 29 | $10,085.33 | $10,133.19 |
$-109.91 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $318.50 | 31 | $9,873.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 2:45pm ET | $319.74 | 31 | $9,911.94 | $10,171.63 |
+$38.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $334.73 | 30 | $10,041.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $336.50 | 30 | $10,095.00 | $10,224.73 |
+$53.10 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $318.33 | 32 | $10,186.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $324.48 | 32 | $10,383.36 | $10,421.37 |
+$196.64 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $350.28 | 29 | $10,158.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $351.80 | 29 | $10,202.34 | $10,465.60 |
+$44.22 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $351.71 | 29 | $10,199.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $355.07 | 29 | $10,296.89 | $10,562.89 |
+$97.30 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:55pm ET | $359.39 | 29 | $10,422.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:45pm ET | $358.00 | 29 | $10,382.00 | $10,522.44 |
$-40.45 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:50pm ET | $349.65 | 30 | $10,489.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $338.16 | 30 | $10,144.80 | $10,177.74 |
$-344.70 (-3.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $329.80 | 30 | $9,894.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $327.14 | 30 | $9,814.35 | $10,098.09 |
$-79.65 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:30pm ET | $325.60 | 31 | $10,093.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.01 | 31 | $10,075.31 | $10,079.95 |
$-18.13 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $311.00 | 32 | $9,952.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $314.05 | 32 | $10,049.76 | $10,177.63 |
+$97.67 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:00pm ET | $313.30 | 32 | $10,025.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $311.49 | 32 | $9,967.68 | $10,119.86 |
$-57.76 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $363.82 | 27 | $9,823.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $352.36 | 27 | $9,513.72 | $9,810.44 |
$-309.42 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $362.25 | 27 | $9,780.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $363.20 | 27 | $9,806.40 | $9,836.17 |
+$25.73 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $377.55 | 26 | $9,816.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $384.01 | 26 | $9,984.26 | $10,004.13 |
+$167.96 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $380.88 | 26 | $9,902.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $382.00 | 26 | $9,932.00 | $10,033.25 |
+$29.12 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $391.78 | 25 | $9,794.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $386.85 | 25 | $9,671.25 | $9,910.00 |
$-123.25 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.42 | 26 | $9,630.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $376.96 | 26 | $9,800.96 | $10,080.04 |
+$170.04 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $370.05 | 27 | $9,991.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:10am ET | $358.55 | 27 | $9,680.85 | $9,769.54 |
$-310.50 (-3.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $351.76 | 27 | $9,497.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $353.32 | 27 | $9,539.64 | $9,811.66 |
+$42.12 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.43 | 27 | $9,596.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $352.57 | 27 | $9,519.39 | $9,734.44 |
$-77.22 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $349.16 | 27 | $9,427.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $348.10 | 27 | $9,398.70 | $9,705.82 |
$-28.62 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 12:55pm ET | $336.77 | 28 | $9,429.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $338.48 | 28 | $9,477.44 | $9,753.70 |
+$47.88 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $383.71 | 25 | $9,592.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $376.93 | 25 | $9,423.25 | $9,584.20 |
$-169.50 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.05 | 25 | $9,251.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $361.91 | 25 | $9,047.63 | $9,380.70 |
$-203.50 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $325.01 | 28 | $9,100.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $324.37 | 28 | $9,082.36 | $9,362.92 |
$-17.78 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $328.24 | 28 | $9,190.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $330.01 | 28 | $9,240.28 | $9,412.48 |
+$49.56 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $328.67 | 28 | $9,202.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $332.71 | 28 | $9,315.88 | $9,525.46 |
+$112.98 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $332.94 | 28 | $9,322.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $334.27 | 28 | $9,359.56 | $9,562.70 |
+$37.24 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $333.82 | 28 | $9,346.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $338.63 | 28 | $9,481.50 | $9,697.24 |
+$134.54 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.28 | 26 | $9,575.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $373.79 | 26 | $9,718.54 | $9,840.50 |
+$143.26 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET | $377.83 | 26 | $9,823.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 1:25pm ET | $380.35 | 26 | $9,889.10 | $9,906.02 |
+$65.52 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $372.55 | 26 | $9,686.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $375.28 | 26 | $9,757.28 | $9,977.13 |
+$71.11 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $361.32 | 27 | $9,755.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $362.75 | 27 | $9,794.25 | $10,015.74 |
+$38.61 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.19 | 27 | $9,941.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $365.20 | 27 | $9,860.40 | $9,934.94 |
$-80.80 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,934.94
Net Profit/Loss:
$-65.06
Total Return:
-0.65%