RIOT Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 38 trades in period
+10.14%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,914.91
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$9,909.76
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
20
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.4/35
Total Return
7.1/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
19.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 19.7
30-Day Momentum
10
-7.0%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.6
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,909.76
Current Value
$10,914.91
Period P&L
$1,005.11
Max Drawdown
-50.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
24 /
14
Best Trade
+6.38%
Worst Trade
-8.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.28%
Avg Hold Time
5.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$790,594.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,005.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,005.11
Gross Return
+10.14%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.14%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,909.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $27.18 | 364 | $9,895.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $27.49 | 364 | $10,004.54 | $10,019.00 |
+$109.20 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $27.63 | 362 | $10,000.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.97 | 362 | $10,125.14 | $10,143.89 |
+$124.89 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.56 | 396 | $10,121.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $24.60 | 396 | $9,741.64 | $9,763.77 |
$-380.12 (-3.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $23.29 | 419 | $9,758.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:45pm ET | $22.99 | 419 | $9,632.81 | $9,638.07 |
$-125.70 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $21.90 | 440 | $9,636.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 2:30pm ET | $21.76 | 440 | $9,574.40 | $9,576.47 |
$-61.60 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $21.08 | 454 | $9,570.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $21.16 | 454 | $9,604.37 | $9,610.52 |
+$34.05 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $19.81 | 485 | $9,605.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:30pm ET | $19.95 | 485 | $9,675.75 | $9,680.85 |
+$70.33 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 2:55pm ET | $20.00 | 484 | $9,680.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $20.25 | 484 | $9,798.58 | $9,799.43 |
+$118.58 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.68 | 554 | $9,794.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.44 | 554 | $9,664.53 | $9,669.24 |
$-130.19 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:50pm ET | $21.38 | 452 | $9,661.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $21.27 | 452 | $9,616.30 | $9,624.04 |
$-45.20 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $23.83 | 403 | $9,603.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $24.01 | 403 | $9,678.04 | $9,698.59 |
+$74.55 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $22.22 | 436 | $9,685.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:25pm ET | $21.49 | 436 | $9,369.64 | $9,382.49 |
$-316.10 (-3.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $20.84 | 450 | $9,378.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 2:35pm ET | $20.96 | 450 | $9,432.00 | $9,436.49 |
+$54.00 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:20pm ET | $18.90 | 499 | $9,431.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.10 | 499 | $10,032.39 | $10,037.78 |
+$601.29 (+6.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $22.00 | 456 | $10,032.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:05am ET | $21.34 | 456 | $9,731.04 | $9,736.82 |
$-300.96 (-3.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 1:05pm ET | $20.73 | 469 | $9,720.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $21.12 | 469 | $9,905.28 | $9,922.08 |
+$185.26 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $21.71 | 457 | $9,921.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.40 | 457 | $10,236.80 | $10,237.41 |
+$315.33 (+3.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.01 | 487 | $10,231.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $21.96 | 487 | $10,694.52 | $10,700.06 |
+$462.65 (+4.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $20.45 | 523 | $10,697.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $20.85 | 523 | $10,907.16 | $10,909.26 |
+$209.20 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 1:55pm ET | $19.27 | 566 | $10,906.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 2:45pm ET | $19.49 | 566 | $11,028.51 | $11,030.95 |
+$121.69 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:30pm ET | $20.59 | 535 | $11,015.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $20.70 | 535 | $11,074.50 | $11,089.80 |
+$58.85 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $18.96 | 584 | $11,072.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $19.15 | 584 | $11,183.60 | $11,200.76 |
+$110.96 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:10pm ET | $18.96 | 590 | $11,186.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $19.00 | 590 | $11,212.95 | $11,227.31 |
+$26.55 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $18.88 | 594 | $11,212.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 3:40pm ET | $19.01 | 594 | $11,291.94 | $11,306.97 |
+$79.66 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:10pm ET | $19.68 | 574 | $11,298.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:50pm ET | $19.87 | 574 | $11,407.45 | $11,415.74 |
+$108.77 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 1:55pm ET | $21.13 | 540 | $11,410.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 2:05pm ET | $21.31 | 540 | $11,504.70 | $11,510.24 |
+$94.50 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $20.57 | 559 | $11,495.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.03 | 559 | $11,757.45 | $11,771.85 |
+$261.61 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.53 | 573 | $11,766.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 2:20pm ET | $18.89 | 573 | $10,823.97 | $10,829.26 |
$-942.59 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.29 | 592 | $10,827.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.01 | 592 | $10,661.92 | $10,663.50 |
$-165.76 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $18.63 | 572 | $10,656.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.80 | 572 | $10,753.60 | $10,760.74 |
+$97.24 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 3:20pm ET | $22.39 | 480 | $10,744.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.53 | 480 | $10,814.40 | $10,830.34 |
+$69.60 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.17 | 511 | $10,817.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $21.13 | 511 | $10,797.43 | $10,809.90 |
$-20.44 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET | $21.48 | 503 | $10,804.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:50pm ET | $21.45 | 503 | $10,789.35 | $10,794.81 |
$-15.09 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.55 | 525 | $10,788.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $20.23 | 525 | $10,618.13 | $10,624.19 |
$-170.62 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $20.39 | 521 | $10,620.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $20.35 | 521 | $10,604.95 | $10,608.56 |
$-15.63 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $24.59 | 431 | $10,600.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $24.45 | 431 | $10,540.10 | $10,548.22 |
$-60.34 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 3:10pm ET | $24.63 | 428 | $10,539.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $24.80 | 428 | $10,612.26 | $10,620.98 |
+$72.76 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.99 | 442 | $10,603.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $24.66 | 442 | $10,897.51 | $10,914.91 |
+$293.93 (+2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,914.91
Net Profit/Loss:
+$914.91
Total Return:
+9.15%