RIOT Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 38 trades in period
+11.89%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,913.98
Current Value
76%
Win Rate
$8,860.32
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.4/35
Total Return
6.5/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality
19.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 19.3
30-Day Momentum
34
+3.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.0
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,976
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,860.32
Current Value
$9,913.98
Period P&L
$1,053.62
Max Drawdown
-50.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
29 /
9
Best Trade
+3.09%
Worst Trade
-6.17%
Avg Trade Return
+0.32%
Avg Hold Time
11h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$743,509.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,053.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,053.62
Gross Return
+11.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.89%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,860.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.76 | 600 | $8,856.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:30pm ET | $14.77 | 600 | $8,862.00 | $8,866.36 |
+$6.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $13.89 | 638 | $8,861.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $13.94 | 638 | $8,893.72 | $8,898.26 |
+$31.90 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $12.69 | 700 | $8,886.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.86 | 700 | $9,002.00 | $9,013.76 |
+$115.50 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $11.57 | 779 | $9,012.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:25pm ET | $11.75 | 779 | $9,153.25 | $9,154.21 |
+$140.45 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:55pm ET | $12.63 | 725 | $9,153.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $12.60 | 725 | $9,131.38 | $9,132.46 |
$-21.75 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $13.40 | 681 | $9,124.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $13.53 | 681 | $9,213.93 | $9,221.67 |
+$89.21 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $13.85 | 665 | $9,213.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $13.97 | 665 | $9,290.05 | $9,298.15 |
+$76.48 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $16.73 | 555 | $9,282.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $16.83 | 555 | $9,337.88 | $9,353.65 |
+$55.50 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.32 | 573 | $9,348.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.71 | 573 | $9,574.83 | $9,579.98 |
+$226.33 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $18.28 | 523 | $9,563.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $18.33 | 523 | $9,583.98 | $9,600.90 |
+$20.92 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $16.91 | 567 | $9,585.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $16.58 | 567 | $9,398.03 | $9,413.79 |
$-187.11 (-2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $17.78 | 529 | $9,405.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $18.09 | 529 | $9,572.25 | $9,580.42 |
+$166.63 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $18.08 | 529 | $9,564.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $18.17 | 529 | $9,614.57 | $9,630.67 |
+$50.25 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:55pm ET | $18.31 | 525 | $9,612.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 1:55pm ET | $18.43 | 525 | $9,675.59 | $9,693.51 |
+$62.84 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.49 | 524 | $9,688.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.70 | 524 | $9,798.80 | $9,803.55 |
+$110.04 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.13 | 572 | $9,798.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 11:55am ET | $16.85 | 572 | $9,638.20 | $9,643.39 |
$-160.16 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $18.21 | 529 | $9,633.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $18.48 | 529 | $9,773.28 | $9,783.58 |
+$140.19 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $19.43 | 503 | $9,773.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:05pm ET | $19.54 | 503 | $9,828.97 | $9,839.26 |
+$55.68 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $22.99 | 427 | $9,816.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $23.70 | 427 | $10,119.90 | $10,142.43 |
+$303.17 (+3.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $25.30 | 400 | $10,120.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.48 | 400 | $9,792.00 | $9,814.43 |
$-328.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $24.16 | 406 | $9,808.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $24.63 | 406 | $9,999.78 | $10,005.25 |
+$190.82 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $24.49 | 408 | $9,989.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $24.72 | 408 | $10,085.76 | $10,101.13 |
+$95.88 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $23.42 | 431 | $10,094.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 11:00am ET | $23.11 | 431 | $9,960.41 | $9,967.52 |
$-133.61 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:45pm ET | $22.60 | 441 | $9,966.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $22.83 | 441 | $10,068.03 | $10,068.95 |
+$101.43 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 3:50pm ET | $23.67 | 425 | $10,057.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.90 | 425 | $10,155.38 | $10,166.70 |
+$97.75 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:25pm ET | $24.58 | 413 | $10,151.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.16 | 413 | $10,389.02 | $10,404.18 |
+$237.48 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 1:05pm ET | $28.12 | 369 | $10,376.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $28.11 | 369 | $10,374.36 | $10,402.26 |
$-1.92 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $27.16 | 382 | $10,375.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.57 | 382 | $10,150.50 | $10,177.64 |
$-224.62 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.10 | 362 | $10,172.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $28.53 | 362 | $10,327.86 | $10,333.30 |
+$155.66 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $27.60 | 374 | $10,322.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $27.70 | 374 | $10,359.80 | $10,370.70 |
+$37.40 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $27.47 | 377 | $10,356.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.77 | 377 | $9,716.95 | $9,731.46 |
$-639.24 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.76 | 393 | $9,730.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $25.25 | 393 | $9,923.25 | $9,924.03 |
+$192.57 (+2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:15pm ET | $24.74 | 401 | $9,920.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $25.41 | 401 | $10,189.41 | $10,192.70 |
+$268.67 (+2.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET | $26.59 | 383 | $10,185.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 2:40pm ET | $26.78 | 383 | $10,256.74 | $10,263.56 |
+$70.86 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $27.55 | 372 | $10,248.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:45pm ET | $27.55 | 372 | $10,248.60 | $10,263.56 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $27.56 | 372 | $10,252.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $28.02 | 372 | $10,423.44 | $10,434.68 |
+$171.12 (+1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:05pm ET | $27.78 | 375 | $10,416.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:25pm ET | $27.97 | 375 | $10,488.75 | $10,506.68 |
+$72.00 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $28.61 | 367 | $10,501.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.00 | 367 | $9,909.00 | $9,913.98 |
$-592.70 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,913.98
Net Profit/Loss:
$-86.02
Total Return:
-0.86%