RIVN Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 39 trades in period
-7.73%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,283.43
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$7,893.66
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
10.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.4
30-Day Momentum
10
-8.3%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.6
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$7,893.66
Current Value
$7,283.43
Period P&L
$-610.20
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
23 /
16
Best Trade
+5.34%
Worst Trade
-5.06%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$625,287.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-610.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-610.20
Gross Return
-7.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.73%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $7,893.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 2:40pm ET | $14.93 | 529 | $7,895.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.94 | 529 | $7,900.62 | $7,901.57 |
+$5.29 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.39 | 549 | $7,897.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 12:10pm ET | $14.52 | 549 | $7,968.74 | $7,972.94 |
+$71.37 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $15.44 | 516 | $7,964.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:15pm ET | $15.51 | 516 | $8,000.58 | $8,009.06 |
+$36.12 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $17.15 | 467 | $8,009.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $17.32 | 467 | $8,088.44 | $8,088.45 |
+$79.39 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.17 | 471 | $8,085.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.08 | 471 | $8,518.03 | $8,520.50 |
+$432.05 (+5.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.76 | 479 | $8,507.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 12:40pm ET | $17.23 | 479 | $8,250.78 | $8,263.85 |
$-256.65 (-3.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 2:50pm ET | $16.45 | 502 | $8,257.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:20pm ET | $16.57 | 502 | $8,318.14 | $8,324.09 |
+$60.24 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $18.00 | 462 | $8,313.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.44 | 462 | $8,518.13 | $8,528.52 |
+$204.43 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.47 | 488 | $8,522.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 12:10pm ET | $17.35 | 488 | $8,469.24 | $8,474.84 |
$-53.68 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $17.31 | 489 | $8,464.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:20pm ET | $16.88 | 489 | $8,251.88 | $8,262.12 |
$-212.71 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 2:45pm ET | $17.88 | 462 | $8,258.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $17.80 | 462 | $8,221.29 | $8,225.16 |
$-36.96 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $17.20 | 478 | $8,223.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:45pm ET | $17.33 | 478 | $8,281.35 | $8,282.53 |
+$57.36 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:25pm ET | $17.55 | 472 | $8,281.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $17.67 | 472 | $8,337.88 | $8,339.17 |
+$56.64 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 2:00pm ET | $17.19 | 485 | $8,337.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $17.22 | 485 | $8,349.28 | $8,351.24 |
+$12.08 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.36 | 510 | $8,346.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.25 | 510 | $8,287.50 | $8,292.59 |
$-58.65 (-0.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:25pm ET | $16.57 | 500 | $8,285.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $16.63 | 500 | $8,312.50 | $8,320.04 |
+$27.45 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.20 | 513 | $8,310.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $16.29 | 513 | $8,356.77 | $8,366.21 |
+$46.17 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.20 | 516 | $8,359.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 1:00pm ET | $15.38 | 516 | $7,936.08 | $7,943.09 |
$-423.12 (-5.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $15.51 | 512 | $7,938.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.63 | 512 | $8,002.56 | $8,007.09 |
+$64.00 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.58 | 513 | $7,992.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 12:20pm ET | $15.44 | 513 | $7,922.52 | $7,937.07 |
$-70.02 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $16.02 | 495 | $7,932.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $16.05 | 495 | $7,942.28 | $7,946.97 |
+$9.90 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 1:30pm ET | $15.93 | 499 | $7,946.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.98 | 499 | $7,971.53 | $7,971.92 |
+$24.95 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $15.86 | 502 | $7,964.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 11:45am ET | $15.56 | 502 | $7,808.61 | $7,816.30 |
$-155.62 (-2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $14.82 | 527 | $7,810.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $14.93 | 527 | $7,865.48 | $7,871.48 |
+$55.18 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $14.68 | 536 | $7,865.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $14.72 | 536 | $7,887.24 | $7,892.92 |
+$21.44 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 3:50pm ET | $15.82 | 498 | $7,880.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.95 | 498 | $7,943.10 | $7,955.17 |
+$62.25 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.82 | 473 | $7,953.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 1:25pm ET | $16.79 | 473 | $7,941.67 | $7,943.35 |
$-11.82 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 3:25pm ET | $16.72 | 474 | $7,927.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET | $16.86 | 474 | $7,991.64 | $8,007.48 |
+$64.13 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.54 | 484 | $8,005.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.30 | 484 | $7,889.20 | $7,891.32 |
$-116.16 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $16.00 | 493 | $7,886.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 3:50pm ET | $16.03 | 493 | $7,901.41 | $7,906.70 |
+$15.38 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $15.45 | 511 | $7,897.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $15.53 | 511 | $7,935.83 | $7,945.03 |
+$38.32 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.81 | 502 | $7,937.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:05am ET | $15.73 | 502 | $7,898.97 | $7,906.88 |
$-38.15 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $16.07 | 492 | $7,906.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $16.25 | 492 | $7,997.46 | $7,997.90 |
+$91.02 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:35pm ET | $16.23 | 492 | $7,982.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.90 | 492 | $7,822.80 | $7,838.00 |
$-159.90 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.71 | 498 | $7,823.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:25am ET | $15.52 | 498 | $7,726.47 | $7,740.89 |
$-97.11 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.23 | 508 | $7,734.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:35pm ET | $15.01 | 508 | $7,625.08 | $7,631.67 |
$-109.22 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.57 | 490 | $7,629.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 12:20pm ET | $15.01 | 490 | $7,352.45 | $7,354.82 |
$-276.85 (-3.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.38 | 478 | $7,351.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:45pm ET | $15.19 | 478 | $7,263.21 | $7,266.39 |
$-88.43 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $14.91 | 487 | $7,263.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:55pm ET | $14.95 | 487 | $7,280.65 | $7,283.43 |
+$17.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,283.43
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,716.57
Total Return:
-27.17%