SMCI Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 39 trades in period
-1.18%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,401.65
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$7,489.77
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
14.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 14.9
30-Day Momentum
69
+9.5%
30d Return
79%
Win Rate
14
Trades
2.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 70.4
Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+54 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$7,489.77
Current Value
$7,401.65
Period P&L
$-88.15
Max Drawdown
-55.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
23 /
16
Best Trade
+3.72%
Worst Trade
-5.36%
Avg Trade Return
-0.01%
Avg Hold Time
9.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$555,008.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-88.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-88.15
Gross Return
-1.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.18%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $7,489.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $32.27 | 232 | $7,486.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $32.17 | 232 | $7,462.28 | $7,465.43 |
$-24.36 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $31.44 | 237 | $7,451.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $31.70 | 237 | $7,512.90 | $7,527.05 |
+$61.62 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $30.08 | 250 | $7,520.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $30.10 | 250 | $7,525.00 | $7,532.05 |
+$5.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $29.45 | 255 | $7,511.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.88 | 255 | $7,108.13 | $7,129.15 |
$-402.90 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $27.28 | 261 | $7,120.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.39 | 261 | $7,148.79 | $7,157.86 |
+$28.71 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.48 | 270 | $7,149.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $26.00 | 270 | $7,020.00 | $7,028.26 |
$-129.60 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $28.59 | 245 | $7,005.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $28.63 | 245 | $7,014.35 | $7,036.83 |
+$8.57 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $28.06 | 250 | $7,015.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 1:00pm ET | $27.73 | 250 | $6,931.25 | $6,953.08 |
$-83.75 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $27.58 | 252 | $6,949.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.21 | 252 | $7,108.92 | $7,112.90 |
+$159.82 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.33 | 270 | $7,109.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.04 | 270 | $7,030.66 | $7,034.46 |
$-78.44 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.57 | 298 | $7,023.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $24.35 | 298 | $7,256.30 | $7,266.90 |
+$232.44 (+3.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $24.01 | 302 | $7,252.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.39 | 302 | $7,364.27 | $7,378.64 |
+$111.74 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 1:10pm ET | $31.25 | 236 | $7,376.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 3:35pm ET | $30.30 | 236 | $7,149.62 | $7,152.08 |
$-226.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.45 | 234 | $7,125.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $30.15 | 234 | $7,056.22 | $7,083.01 |
$-69.08 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.60 | 239 | $7,074.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:00pm ET | $28.93 | 239 | $6,915.46 | $6,924.07 |
$-158.94 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.84 | 248 | $6,905.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:55pm ET | $26.72 | 248 | $6,626.56 | $6,645.07 |
$-279.00 (-4.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $27.61 | 240 | $6,626.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $27.70 | 240 | $6,649.20 | $6,667.89 |
+$22.82 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.90 | 238 | $6,640.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $28.50 | 238 | $6,781.81 | $6,809.50 |
+$141.61 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $31.19 | 218 | $6,799.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $30.94 | 218 | $6,744.94 | $6,755.04 |
$-54.46 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $29.59 | 228 | $6,746.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.89 | 228 | $6,814.92 | $6,823.44 |
+$68.40 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:45pm ET | $31.57 | 216 | $6,818.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.91 | 216 | $6,892.56 | $6,897.96 |
+$74.52 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $40.90 | 168 | $6,871.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 1:10pm ET | $40.46 | 168 | $6,797.28 | $6,824.04 |
$-73.92 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.08 | 174 | $6,799.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $38.64 | 174 | $6,723.88 | $6,748.00 |
$-76.04 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.04 | 182 | $6,742.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $36.84 | 182 | $6,704.88 | $6,710.69 |
$-37.31 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 12:40pm ET | $36.83 | 182 | $6,702.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:05pm ET | $37.10 | 182 | $6,751.29 | $6,759.83 |
+$49.14 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 1:00pm ET | $38.07 | 177 | $6,738.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:45pm ET | $38.23 | 177 | $6,767.42 | $6,788.86 |
+$29.03 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 2:30pm ET | $37.35 | 181 | $6,760.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.74 | 181 | $7,011.94 | $7,040.45 |
+$251.59 (+3.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.90 | 185 | $7,011.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.37 | 185 | $7,098.45 | $7,127.40 |
+$86.95 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.24 | 196 | $7,103.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $37.25 | 196 | $7,301.47 | $7,325.83 |
+$198.43 (+2.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $36.31 | 201 | $7,299.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $36.42 | 201 | $7,321.42 | $7,347.94 |
+$22.11 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.14 | 203 | $7,336.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $36.80 | 203 | $7,470.40 | $7,481.92 |
+$133.98 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $40.15 | 186 | $7,466.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.72 | 186 | $7,387.92 | $7,402.87 |
$-79.05 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.84 | 185 | $7,370.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $40.04 | 185 | $7,408.32 | $7,440.79 |
+$37.92 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $38.12 | 195 | $7,433.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $38.40 | 195 | $7,488.00 | $7,495.39 |
+$54.60 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.62 | 199 | $7,486.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $37.49 | 199 | $7,460.51 | $7,469.52 |
$-25.87 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $35.79 | 208 | $7,444.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.56 | 208 | $7,604.48 | $7,629.33 |
+$159.81 (+2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $40.26 | 189 | $7,609.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $38.70 | 189 | $7,314.30 | $7,334.49 |
$-294.84 (-3.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $40.77 | 179 | $7,297.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $41.05 | 179 | $7,347.95 | $7,384.74 |
+$50.25 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $41.40 | 178 | $7,369.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $41.49 | 178 | $7,386.11 | $7,401.65 |
+$16.91 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,401.65
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,598.35
Total Return:
-25.98%