SPXU Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 38 trades in period
-3.98%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,864.22
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$11,314.15
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
8.2/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
21.2/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 21.1
30-Day Momentum
17
-2.5%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1
Conf: 0.95×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,314.15
Current Value
$10,864.22
Period P&L
$-449.84
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
20 /
18
Best Trade
+2.43%
Worst Trade
-3.19%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$859,580.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-449.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-449.84
Gross Return
-3.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.98%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,314.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.86 | 291 | $11,308.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $38.32 | 291 | $11,151.12 | $11,156.92 |
$-157.14 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:15pm ET | $38.85 | 287 | $11,148.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $39.13 | 287 | $11,231.74 | $11,240.15 |
+$83.23 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.30 | 293 | $11,221.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $39.23 | 293 | $11,494.39 | $11,512.64 |
+$272.49 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:45pm ET | $36.97 | 311 | $11,497.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $37.03 | 311 | $11,514.78 | $11,529.81 |
+$17.17 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.86 | 312 | $11,500.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $36.95 | 312 | $11,528.40 | $11,557.89 |
+$28.08 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $36.43 | 317 | $11,548.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $36.55 | 317 | $11,586.35 | $11,595.93 |
+$38.04 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.17 | 311 | $11,559.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.01 | 311 | $11,510.11 | $11,546.17 |
$-49.76 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.33 | 317 | $11,516.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $36.54 | 317 | $11,583.21 | $11,612.77 |
+$66.60 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.54 | 317 | $11,583.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:40am ET | $36.51 | 317 | $11,573.64 | $11,603.23 |
$-9.54 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $36.25 | 320 | $11,599.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 2:45pm ET | $36.20 | 320 | $11,584.00 | $11,587.64 |
$-15.58 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.09 | 312 | $11,572.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $37.53 | 312 | $11,709.36 | $11,724.92 |
+$137.28 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $36.99 | 317 | $11,724.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $37.03 | 317 | $11,738.51 | $11,739.19 |
+$14.26 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $38.38 | 305 | $11,705.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 1:30pm ET | $38.59 | 305 | $11,769.95 | $11,803.39 |
+$64.20 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.62 | 313 | $11,775.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $37.57 | 313 | $11,759.41 | $11,787.74 |
$-15.65 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $38.27 | 308 | $11,787.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:05pm ET | $38.12 | 308 | $11,740.99 | $11,741.57 |
$-46.17 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 1:10pm ET | $38.93 | 301 | $11,717.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:40pm ET | $38.27 | 301 | $11,519.42 | $11,543.06 |
$-198.51 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $38.15 | 302 | $11,521.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $38.12 | 302 | $11,512.24 | $11,533.91 |
$-9.15 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.81 | 313 | $11,521.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 3:40pm ET | $35.63 | 313 | $11,153.75 | $11,166.13 |
$-367.78 (-3.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
6.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.12 | 337 | $11,161.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $33.36 | 337 | $11,242.32 | $11,247.35 |
+$81.22 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.90 | 331 | $11,219.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $33.60 | 331 | $11,123.25 | $11,151.36 |
$-95.99 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.49 | 332 | $11,118.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $33.63 | 332 | $11,165.16 | $11,197.84 |
+$46.48 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 12:25pm ET | $33.69 | 332 | $11,185.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 3:20pm ET | $33.62 | 332 | $11,161.84 | $11,174.27 |
$-23.57 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.03 | 328 | $11,161.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:35am ET | $34.01 | 328 | $11,153.64 | $11,166.07 |
$-8.20 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.72 | 321 | $11,145.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 12:20pm ET | $34.65 | 321 | $11,121.05 | $11,141.99 |
$-24.08 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.60 | 322 | $11,141.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 10:25am ET | $34.87 | 322 | $11,226.53 | $11,227.35 |
+$85.36 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 2:50pm ET | $34.67 | 323 | $11,198.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 3:00pm ET | $34.54 | 323 | $11,156.90 | $11,185.85 |
$-41.50 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.96 | 329 | $11,171.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $34.09 | 329 | $11,215.61 | $11,230.26 |
+$44.41 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:40pm ET | $34.74 | 323 | $11,219.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $34.76 | 323 | $11,227.48 | $11,238.33 |
+$8.07 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.28 | 318 | $11,217.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $34.91 | 318 | $11,100.52 | $11,121.40 |
$-116.93 (-1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 1:55pm ET | $33.77 | 329 | $11,110.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $33.76 | 329 | $11,107.04 | $11,118.11 |
$-3.29 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 1:10pm ET | $35.23 | 315 | $11,097.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $35.29 | 315 | $11,116.32 | $11,136.95 |
+$18.84 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.06 | 317 | $11,114.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $34.86 | 317 | $11,051.16 | $11,074.09 |
$-62.86 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 11:45am ET | $35.40 | 312 | $11,046.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $35.41 | 312 | $11,047.92 | $11,075.65 |
+$1.56 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.79 | 309 | $11,059.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $35.81 | 309 | $11,063.75 | $11,080.28 |
+$4.63 (+0.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $35.53 | 311 | $11,049.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $35.64 | 311 | $11,084.04 | $11,114.46 |
+$34.18 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $35.44 | 313 | $11,093.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.58 | 313 | $10,825.10 | $10,846.41 |
$-268.05 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $33.56 | 323 | $10,841.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $33.61 | 323 | $10,856.13 | $10,861.04 |
+$14.63 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $34.13 | 318 | $10,854.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $34.15 | 318 | $10,858.11 | $10,864.22 |
+$3.18 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,864.22
Net Profit/Loss:
+$864.22
Total Return:
+8.64%