TMO Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 34 trades in period
+6.08%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,230.38
Current Value
74%
Win Rate
$9,644.18
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
4.3/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
18.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 18.5
30-Day Momentum
19
-1.6%
30d Return
70%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.3
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,644.18
Current Value
$10,230.38
Period P&L
$586.16
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
25 /
9
Best Trade
+2.47%
Worst Trade
-1.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
6.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$659,432.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$586.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$586.16
Gross Return
+6.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.08%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,644.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:10pm ET | $506.30 | 19 | $9,619.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $506.42 | 19 | $9,622.07 | $9,646.69 |
+$2.47 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $501.71 | 19 | $9,532.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $503.83 | 19 | $9,572.77 | $9,686.97 |
+$40.28 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $502.83 | 19 | $9,553.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $500.71 | 19 | $9,513.49 | $9,646.69 |
$-40.28 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $518.82 | 18 | $9,338.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $513.30 | 18 | $9,239.49 | $9,547.42 |
$-99.27 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $510.08 | 18 | $9,181.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:00am ET | $509.83 | 18 | $9,176.94 | $9,543.01 |
$-4.41 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:40pm ET | $519.97 | 18 | $9,359.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $521.04 | 18 | $9,378.81 | $9,562.36 |
+$19.35 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $522.63 | 18 | $9,407.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $529.68 | 18 | $9,534.33 | $9,689.35 |
+$126.99 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:35pm ET | $534.03 | 18 | $9,612.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $537.78 | 18 | $9,680.04 | $9,756.85 |
+$67.50 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $532.56 | 18 | $9,586.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $527.72 | 18 | $9,498.96 | $9,669.73 |
$-87.12 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $509.77 | 18 | $9,175.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $516.89 | 18 | $9,303.93 | $9,797.89 |
+$128.16 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $523.47 | 18 | $9,422.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $526.24 | 18 | $9,472.32 | $9,847.75 |
+$49.86 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $562.04 | 17 | $9,554.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $558.88 | 17 | $9,500.88 | $9,793.95 |
$-53.80 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:30pm ET | $560.90 | 17 | $9,535.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $574.77 | 17 | $9,771.09 | $10,029.73 |
+$235.79 (+2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $575.93 | 17 | $9,790.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 1:55pm ET | $574.48 | 17 | $9,766.24 | $10,005.17 |
$-24.57 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $566.04 | 17 | $9,622.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:25am ET | $566.20 | 17 | $9,625.40 | $10,007.93 |
+$2.76 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $573.05 | 17 | $9,741.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $574.76 | 17 | $9,770.92 | $10,037.04 |
+$29.11 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:55pm ET | $565.39 | 17 | $9,611.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $566.51 | 17 | $9,630.59 | $10,056.08 |
+$19.04 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $571.89 | 17 | $9,722.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $574.96 | 17 | $9,774.32 | $10,108.27 |
+$52.19 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $597.51 | 16 | $9,560.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $597.55 | 16 | $9,560.80 | $10,108.99 |
+$0.72 (+0.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $596.85 | 16 | $9,549.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $603.20 | 16 | $9,651.20 | $10,210.59 |
+$101.60 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 1:05pm ET | $591.33 | 17 | $10,052.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $592.50 | 17 | $10,072.50 | $10,230.48 |
+$19.89 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 12:35pm ET | $612.61 | 16 | $9,801.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $613.99 | 16 | $9,823.84 | $10,252.56 |
+$22.08 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $627.47 | 16 | $10,039.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:15pm ET | $629.34 | 16 | $10,069.36 | $10,282.40 |
+$29.84 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $619.67 | 16 | $9,914.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $626.47 | 16 | $10,023.52 | $10,391.12 |
+$108.72 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $625.74 | 16 | $10,011.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET | $627.14 | 16 | $10,034.24 | $10,413.52 |
+$22.40 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $630.38 | 16 | $10,086.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $637.04 | 16 | $10,192.64 | $10,520.08 |
+$106.56 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $626.87 | 16 | $10,029.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $622.46 | 16 | $9,959.28 | $10,449.44 |
$-70.64 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $613.09 | 17 | $10,422.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $602.50 | 17 | $10,242.50 | $10,269.33 |
$-180.11 (-1.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 1:25pm ET | $609.42 | 16 | $9,750.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $610.67 | 16 | $9,770.72 | $10,289.33 |
+$20.00 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:00pm ET | $612.31 | 16 | $9,796.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $602.18 | 16 | $9,634.88 | $10,127.25 |
$-162.08 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $600.38 | 16 | $9,606.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $603.53 | 16 | $9,656.40 | $10,177.57 |
+$50.32 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:15pm ET | $610.92 | 16 | $9,774.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $611.16 | 16 | $9,778.48 | $10,181.33 |
+$3.76 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $655.80 | 15 | $9,837.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $658.02 | 15 | $9,870.30 | $10,214.56 |
+$33.23 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 12:40pm ET | $654.68 | 15 | $9,820.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:30pm ET | $655.74 | 15 | $9,836.10 | $10,230.38 |
+$15.82 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,230.38
Net Profit/Loss:
+$230.38
Total Return:
+2.30%