TQQQ Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 36 trades in period
+21.80%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,854.35
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$12,195.64
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
40
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.5/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
40.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 39.6
30-Day Momentum
19
-0.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.0
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,195.64
Current Value
$14,854.35
Period P&L
$2,658.71
Max Drawdown
-17.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
25 /
11
Best Trade
+4.78%
Worst Trade
-4.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.56%
Avg Hold Time
7.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,014,897.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,658.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,658.71
Gross Return
+21.80%
Net Return (after fees)
+21.80%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,195.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $74.13 | 164 | $12,157.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $73.10 | 164 | $11,988.40 | $12,026.84 |
$-168.79 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.07 | 169 | $12,010.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $73.64 | 169 | $12,444.32 | $12,460.33 |
+$433.49 (+3.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.78 | 160 | $12,444.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $78.92 | 160 | $12,627.20 | $12,642.76 |
+$182.43 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $73.01 | 173 | $12,630.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.15 | 173 | $13,000.95 | $13,013.53 |
+$370.77 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.53 | 176 | $12,941.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:45am ET | $71.89 | 176 | $12,653.52 | $12,725.77 |
$-287.76 (-2.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:00pm ET | $76.22 | 166 | $12,652.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.56 | 166 | $12,542.96 | $12,616.23 |
$-109.54 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.05 | 170 | $12,588.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.89 | 170 | $12,561.30 | $12,589.01 |
$-27.22 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 2:45pm ET | $75.26 | 167 | $12,568.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.30 | 167 | $12,742.18 | $12,762.78 |
+$173.76 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.39 | 176 | $12,740.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.01 | 176 | $12,674.64 | $12,696.78 |
$-66.00 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $65.31 | 194 | $12,669.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $68.43 | 194 | $13,274.45 | $13,302.06 |
+$605.28 (+4.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $68.51 | 194 | $13,291.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.19 | 194 | $13,616.84 | $13,627.49 |
+$325.44 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.20 | 194 | $13,618.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $70.86 | 194 | $13,746.86 | $13,755.55 |
+$128.06 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $65.72 | 209 | $13,736.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $66.16 | 209 | $13,827.42 | $13,846.45 |
+$90.89 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $65.05 | 212 | $13,790.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $65.77 | 212 | $13,943.24 | $13,999.06 |
+$152.62 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $61.22 | 228 | $13,958.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $61.06 | 228 | $13,922.82 | $13,963.72 |
$-35.34 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $58.74 | 237 | $13,920.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $59.12 | 237 | $14,011.44 | $14,054.97 |
+$91.24 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.07 | 197 | $14,000.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $73.11 | 197 | $14,401.80 | $14,455.98 |
+$401.01 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $73.36 | 197 | $14,451.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:40pm ET | $73.93 | 197 | $14,564.21 | $14,568.25 |
+$112.27 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.58 | 197 | $14,495.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $73.91 | 197 | $14,560.25 | $14,633.24 |
+$64.99 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $74.72 | 195 | $14,569.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.97 | 195 | $14,619.15 | $14,682.73 |
+$49.49 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $76.78 | 191 | $14,664.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $76.61 | 191 | $14,633.46 | $14,652.17 |
$-30.56 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $71.66 | 204 | $14,618.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $72.43 | 204 | $14,774.88 | $14,808.41 |
+$156.24 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $69.94 | 211 | $14,757.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $70.48 | 211 | $14,871.26 | $14,922.33 |
+$113.92 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $69.34 | 215 | $14,908.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $69.59 | 215 | $14,961.89 | $14,976.12 |
+$53.79 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.66 | 214 | $14,906.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $70.39 | 214 | $15,063.44 | $15,132.79 |
+$156.67 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $72.08 | 209 | $15,064.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $72.64 | 209 | $15,180.92 | $15,249.01 |
+$116.22 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:00pm ET | $72.32 | 210 | $15,187.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $72.02 | 210 | $15,124.60 | $15,186.41 |
$-62.60 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.93 | 220 | $15,163.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $69.94 | 220 | $15,386.80 | $15,409.71 |
+$223.30 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $71.45 | 215 | $15,361.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $72.07 | 215 | $15,495.05 | $15,543.01 |
+$133.30 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $71.09 | 218 | $15,497.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $71.38 | 218 | $15,559.75 | $15,605.14 |
+$62.13 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $69.24 | 225 | $15,579.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $69.83 | 225 | $15,712.87 | $15,739.02 |
+$133.88 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $71.06 | 221 | $15,703.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.60 | 221 | $14,939.60 | $14,975.46 |
$-763.56 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.05 | 216 | $14,914.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $68.07 | 216 | $14,704.20 | $14,764.86 |
$-210.60 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $68.66 | 215 | $14,761.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $69.33 | 215 | $14,907.02 | $14,910.01 |
+$145.15 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 12:25pm ET | $70.83 | 210 | $14,875.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 12:50pm ET | $71.22 | 210 | $14,956.20 | $14,990.86 |
+$80.85 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $79.78 | 187 | $14,918.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $79.05 | 187 | $14,782.37 | $14,854.35 |
$-136.51 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,854.35
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,854.35
Total Return:
+48.54%