TSLA Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 37 trades in period
-12.59%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,993.00
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$9,144.52
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
11.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.7
30-Day Momentum
17
-2.8%
30d Return
62%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1
Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,144.52
Current Value
$7,993.00
Period P&L
$-1,151.59
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
22 /
15
Best Trade
+1.85%
Worst Trade
-10.02%
Avg Trade Return
-0.35%
Avg Hold Time
6.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$606,502.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,151.59
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,151.59
Gross Return
-12.59%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.59%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,144.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $378.31 | 24 | $9,079.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $376.44 | 24 | $9,034.56 | $9,099.68 |
$-44.90 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.99 | 24 | $8,903.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $374.73 | 24 | $8,993.52 | $9,189.40 |
+$89.72 (+1.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $425.25 | 21 | $8,930.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $425.75 | 21 | $8,940.75 | $9,199.84 |
+$10.44 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $414.49 | 22 | $9,118.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $416.50 | 22 | $9,163.00 | $9,244.06 |
+$44.22 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $404.58 | 22 | $8,900.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:50pm ET | $404.24 | 22 | $8,893.39 | $9,236.80 |
$-7.26 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $407.90 | 22 | $8,973.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.45 | 22 | $8,809.90 | $9,072.90 |
$-163.90 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $396.04 | 22 | $8,712.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $397.81 | 22 | $8,751.82 | $9,111.95 |
+$39.05 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 2:55pm ET | $394.93 | 23 | $9,083.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $388.80 | 23 | $8,942.51 | $8,971.08 |
$-140.88 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.55 | 23 | $8,775.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $378.38 | 23 | $8,702.74 | $8,898.17 |
$-72.91 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $380.36 | 23 | $8,748.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $379.16 | 23 | $8,720.68 | $8,870.55 |
$-27.62 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $379.74 | 23 | $8,734.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $380.31 | 23 | $8,747.13 | $8,883.54 |
+$13.00 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 2:05pm ET | $375.52 | 23 | $8,636.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.91 | 23 | $7,771.93 | $8,018.51 |
$-865.03 (-10.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $315.23 | 25 | $7,880.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 11:55am ET | $310.89 | 25 | $7,772.25 | $7,909.89 |
$-108.62 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $307.01 | 25 | $7,675.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 1:40pm ET | $308.39 | 25 | $7,709.75 | $7,944.35 |
+$34.46 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $306.12 | 25 | $7,653.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $306.94 | 25 | $7,673.50 | $7,964.85 |
+$20.50 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $299.52 | 26 | $7,787.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $305.05 | 26 | $7,931.30 | $8,108.63 |
+$143.78 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $321.08 | 25 | $8,027.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $322.09 | 25 | $8,052.25 | $8,133.88 |
+$25.25 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $321.95 | 25 | $8,048.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 12:20pm ET | $322.88 | 25 | $8,072.00 | $8,157.13 |
+$23.25 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $328.50 | 24 | $7,884.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $327.72 | 24 | $7,865.28 | $8,138.41 |
$-18.72 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 2:30pm ET | $330.69 | 24 | $7,936.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 2:50pm ET | $331.96 | 24 | $7,967.11 | $8,168.96 |
+$30.55 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $338.95 | 24 | $8,134.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $343.02 | 24 | $8,232.36 | $8,266.52 |
+$97.56 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.62 | 23 | $7,972.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $342.57 | 23 | $7,879.00 | $8,173.20 |
$-93.32 (-1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $362.55 | 22 | $7,976.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $363.56 | 22 | $7,998.32 | $8,195.42 |
+$22.22 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $351.30 | 23 | $8,079.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $350.78 | 23 | $8,067.94 | $8,183.46 |
$-11.96 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $343.58 | 23 | $7,902.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $344.16 | 23 | $7,915.68 | $8,196.80 |
+$13.34 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $351.67 | 23 | $8,088.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 11:00am ET | $354.34 | 23 | $8,149.82 | $8,258.13 |
+$61.33 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $356.14 | 23 | $8,191.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $354.26 | 23 | $8,147.98 | $8,215.01 |
$-43.13 (-0.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $352.30 | 23 | $8,102.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $354.62 | 23 | $8,156.26 | $8,268.48 |
+$53.47 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $381.57 | 21 | $8,012.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $362.78 | 21 | $7,618.38 | $7,873.89 |
$-394.59 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $368.25 | 21 | $7,733.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $370.61 | 21 | $7,782.71 | $7,923.35 |
+$49.46 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $364.66 | 21 | $7,657.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $365.34 | 21 | $7,672.14 | $7,937.63 |
+$14.28 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $361.46 | 21 | $7,590.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $360.44 | 21 | $7,569.24 | $7,916.21 |
$-21.42 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET | $358.96 | 22 | $7,897.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $356.93 | 22 | $7,852.46 | $7,871.55 |
$-44.66 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $364.20 | 21 | $7,648.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $366.23 | 21 | $7,690.83 | $7,914.18 |
+$42.63 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $372.80 | 21 | $7,828.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 1:50pm ET | $373.96 | 21 | $7,853.26 | $7,938.54 |
+$24.36 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 12:50pm ET | $378.65 | 20 | $7,573.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $379.85 | 20 | $7,597.01 | $7,962.55 |
+$24.01 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $378.40 | 21 | $7,946.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:00pm ET | $379.85 | 21 | $7,976.85 | $7,993.00 |
+$30.45 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,993.00
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,007.00
Total Return:
-20.07%