USO Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 37 trades in period
+5.79%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,104.47
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$12,386.79
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.3/35
Total Return
12.5/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
37.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 36.8
30-Day Momentum
13
-0.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,976
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,386.79
Current Value
$13,104.47
Period P&L
$717.68
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
22 /
15
Best Trade
+2.87%
Worst Trade
-6.89%
Avg Trade Return
-0.03%
Avg Hold Time
4.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$964,886.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$717.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$717.68
Gross Return
+5.79%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.79%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,386.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $121.53 | 109 | $13,246.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.15 | 109 | $12,333.35 | $12,406.41 |
$-912.88 (-6.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $114.28 | 108 | $12,342.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $114.35 | 108 | $12,349.26 | $12,413.65 |
+$7.24 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $127.62 | 97 | $12,379.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $128.65 | 97 | $12,479.05 | $12,513.56 |
+$99.91 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.78 | 100 | $12,478.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $123.71 | 100 | $12,371.00 | $12,406.56 |
$-107.00 (-0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $138.74 | 89 | $12,347.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $141.27 | 89 | $12,573.03 | $12,631.72 |
+$225.16 (+1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.21 | 105 | $12,516.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $122.63 | 105 | $12,876.15 | $12,991.24 |
+$359.52 (+2.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $126.13 | 102 | $12,865.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $125.07 | 102 | $12,757.40 | $12,883.38 |
$-107.86 (-0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $125.99 | 102 | $12,850.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $124.60 | 102 | $12,708.69 | $12,741.09 |
$-142.29 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $125.74 | 101 | $12,699.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $125.14 | 101 | $12,639.13 | $12,680.36 |
$-60.73 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 2:15pm ET | $122.79 | 103 | $12,647.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.11 | 103 | $12,783.33 | $12,815.81 |
+$135.45 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.85 | 111 | $12,748.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $113.56 | 111 | $12,605.16 | $12,672.20 |
$-143.61 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $122.99 | 103 | $12,667.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $125.95 | 103 | $12,972.85 | $12,977.08 |
+$304.88 (+2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $132.92 | 97 | $12,893.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $133.08 | 97 | $12,908.73 | $12,992.57 |
+$15.49 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:55pm ET | $138.75 | 93 | $12,903.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $139.38 | 93 | $12,962.34 | $13,051.16 |
+$58.59 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $146.58 | 89 | $13,045.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:50am ET | $148.15 | 89 | $13,185.35 | $13,191.10 |
+$139.94 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $141.56 | 93 | $13,165.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $142.40 | 93 | $13,243.20 | $13,269.22 |
+$78.12 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.92 | 92 | $13,240.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $143.48 | 92 | $13,200.16 | $13,228.74 |
$-40.48 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $132.64 | 99 | $13,131.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $133.58 | 99 | $13,224.42 | $13,321.80 |
+$93.06 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $132.38 | 100 | $13,238.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $134.04 | 100 | $13,404.00 | $13,487.30 |
+$165.50 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.79 | 93 | $13,372.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $144.16 | 93 | $13,406.82 | $13,522.05 |
+$34.75 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 11:00am ET | $140.87 | 95 | $13,382.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $141.41 | 95 | $13,433.95 | $13,573.34 |
+$51.29 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $146.02 | 92 | $13,434.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $146.15 | 92 | $13,445.80 | $13,584.84 |
+$11.50 (+0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $149.45 | 90 | $13,450.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $145.70 | 90 | $13,113.00 | $13,247.12 |
$-337.72 (-2.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $145.62 | 90 | $13,105.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $143.63 | 90 | $12,926.70 | $13,068.02 |
$-179.10 (-1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.09 | 96 | $13,064.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $137.88 | 96 | $13,236.83 | $13,240.21 |
+$172.19 (+1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 2:20pm ET | $130.26 | 101 | $13,156.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $130.62 | 101 | $13,192.64 | $13,276.59 |
+$36.38 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.38 | 103 | $13,223.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $128.25 | 103 | $13,209.75 | $13,262.69 |
$-13.90 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $136.38 | 97 | $13,228.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $137.90 | 97 | $13,376.30 | $13,410.13 |
+$147.44 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $140.27 | 95 | $13,325.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $140.86 | 95 | $13,381.70 | $13,466.18 |
+$56.05 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $134.71 | 99 | $13,336.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $134.53 | 99 | $13,318.47 | $13,448.36 |
$-17.82 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.87 | 101 | $13,318.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $132.37 | 101 | $13,369.37 | $13,498.86 |
+$50.50 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $134.71 | 100 | $13,471.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 3:35pm ET | $134.46 | 100 | $13,446.00 | $13,473.86 |
$-25.00 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET | $128.18 | 105 | $13,459.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $129.13 | 105 | $13,558.80 | $13,573.23 |
+$99.37 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.47 | 116 | $13,510.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $114.15 | 116 | $13,241.40 | $13,304.11 |
$-269.12 (-2.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 3:30pm ET | $114.29 | 116 | $13,257.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.41 | 116 | $13,039.56 | $13,086.09 |
$-218.02 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.67 | 116 | $13,069.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $112.43 | 116 | $13,041.88 | $13,058.25 |
$-27.84 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $110.89 | 117 | $12,974.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $111.29 | 117 | $13,020.35 | $13,104.47 |
+$46.22 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,104.47
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,104.47
Total Return:
+31.04%