VXX Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 40 trades in period
+1.43%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,943.97
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$12,762.10
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.4/35
Total Return
12.3/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
30.4/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 29.9
30-Day Momentum
53
+4.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 57.7
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,977
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,762.10
Current Value
$12,943.97
Period P&L
$181.91
Max Drawdown
-19.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
24 /
16
Best Trade
+2.32%
Worst Trade
-2.74%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
7.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,012,205.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$181.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$181.91
Gross Return
+1.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,762.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.70 | 378 | $12,738.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $33.90 | 378 | $12,812.31 | $12,835.76 |
+$73.71 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.99 | 377 | $12,814.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $34.64 | 377 | $13,059.28 | $13,080.81 |
+$245.05 (+1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.03 | 343 | $13,044.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $38.91 | 343 | $13,346.13 | $13,382.65 |
+$301.84 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $36.27 | 368 | $13,347.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:00pm ET | $36.24 | 368 | $13,338.16 | $13,373.45 |
$-9.20 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $34.78 | 384 | $13,355.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:35am ET | $33.98 | 384 | $13,048.32 | $13,066.25 |
$-307.20 (-2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $35.05 | 372 | $13,038.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 1:10pm ET | $35.38 | 372 | $13,161.36 | $13,189.20 |
+$122.95 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $31.45 | 419 | $13,177.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $30.68 | 419 | $12,857.01 | $12,868.66 |
$-320.54 (-2.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $30.70 | 419 | $12,865.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:40pm ET | $30.83 | 419 | $12,915.68 | $12,918.94 |
+$50.28 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $29.75 | 434 | $12,913.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.94 | 434 | $12,559.96 | $12,565.23 |
$-353.71 (-2.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.03 | 432 | $12,540.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $29.27 | 432 | $12,644.64 | $12,668.91 |
+$103.68 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.61 | 442 | $12,645.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $28.85 | 442 | $12,751.70 | $12,774.99 |
+$106.08 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.30 | 436 | $12,774.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $29.47 | 436 | $12,846.74 | $12,846.93 |
+$71.94 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:10pm ET | $29.53 | 435 | $12,845.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:20pm ET | $29.66 | 435 | $12,902.10 | $12,903.48 |
+$56.55 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $29.54 | 436 | $12,879.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $29.42 | 436 | $12,829.30 | $12,853.34 |
$-50.14 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $29.07 | 442 | $12,846.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $29.01 | 442 | $12,824.63 | $12,831.24 |
$-22.10 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:40pm ET | $28.67 | 447 | $12,813.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $28.49 | 447 | $12,732.80 | $12,750.78 |
$-80.46 (-0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $28.33 | 450 | $12,748.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:25pm ET | $28.25 | 450 | $12,714.75 | $12,717.03 |
$-33.75 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $28.00 | 454 | $12,709.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $27.98 | 454 | $12,700.65 | $12,707.95 |
$-9.08 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $28.14 | 451 | $12,691.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $28.20 | 451 | $12,720.45 | $12,737.27 |
+$29.32 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $27.95 | 455 | $12,719.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 2:40pm ET | $28.04 | 455 | $12,759.34 | $12,777.08 |
+$39.81 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.72 | 460 | $12,751.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $27.89 | 460 | $12,827.10 | $12,852.98 |
+$75.90 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $27.92 | 460 | $12,840.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 12:00pm ET | $27.99 | 460 | $12,873.10 | $12,885.18 |
+$32.20 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:05pm ET | $28.44 | 453 | $12,883.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $27.91 | 453 | $12,643.23 | $12,645.09 |
$-240.09 (-1.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
21.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $28.20 | 448 | $12,635.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $27.75 | 448 | $12,432.00 | $12,441.25 |
$-203.84 (-1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $27.84 | 446 | $12,416.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.45 | 446 | $12,242.70 | $12,267.27 |
$-173.98 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 12:40pm ET | $27.33 | 448 | $12,243.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 1:15pm ET | $27.43 | 448 | $12,290.88 | $12,314.31 |
+$47.04 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $27.07 | 454 | $12,289.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $27.08 | 454 | $12,292.05 | $12,316.58 |
+$2.27 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 3:35pm ET | $26.15 | 470 | $12,290.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $26.31 | 470 | $12,363.35 | $12,389.43 |
+$72.85 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.69 | 482 | $12,383.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $25.55 | 482 | $12,315.10 | $12,321.32 |
$-68.11 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $25.18 | 489 | $12,313.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:35am ET | $24.85 | 489 | $12,151.65 | $12,159.95 |
$-161.37 (-1.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:20pm ET | $24.02 | 506 | $12,154.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:55pm ET | $23.99 | 506 | $12,136.41 | $12,142.24 |
$-17.71 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $24.42 | 497 | $12,136.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $24.52 | 497 | $12,188.92 | $12,194.42 |
+$52.18 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $24.44 | 498 | $12,173.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:00pm ET | $24.53 | 498 | $12,215.94 | $12,236.76 |
+$42.33 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $23.66 | 517 | $12,232.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.78 | 517 | $12,294.21 | $12,298.75 |
+$61.99 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.61 | 499 | $12,280.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $24.65 | 499 | $12,297.86 | $12,316.21 |
+$17.46 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $26.07 | 472 | $12,305.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $26.29 | 472 | $12,408.88 | $12,420.05 |
+$103.84 (+0.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.98 | 497 | $12,412.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:45am ET | $25.16 | 497 | $12,502.04 | $12,509.51 |
+$89.46 (+0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $22.75 | 549 | $12,487.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 1:45pm ET | $22.73 | 549 | $12,478.77 | $12,501.27 |
$-8.24 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $22.60 | 553 | $12,500.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $23.13 | 553 | $12,790.89 | $12,791.59 |
+$290.32 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.21 | 575 | $12,770.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $22.48 | 575 | $12,923.13 | $12,943.97 |
+$152.38 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,943.97
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,943.97
Total Return:
+29.44%