XLE Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 39 trades in period
-2.34%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,619.77
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$9,849.84
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
11.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 11.1
30-Day Momentum
28
+0.8%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.5
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,976
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,849.84
Current Value
$9,619.77
Period P&L
$-230.07
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
22 /
17
Best Trade
+2.30%
Worst Trade
-3.45%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
8.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$747,155.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-230.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-230.07
Gross Return
-2.34%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.34%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,849.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.02 | 169 | $9,805.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.35 | 169 | $10,030.99 | $10,075.45 |
+$225.61 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:15pm ET | $60.81 | 165 | $10,034.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $60.77 | 165 | $10,027.05 | $10,068.03 |
$-7.42 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:35pm ET | $61.53 | 163 | $10,029.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.75 | 163 | $10,065.25 | $10,103.89 |
+$35.86 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $61.86 | 163 | $10,083.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $62.03 | 163 | $10,110.91 | $10,131.62 |
+$27.73 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.31 | 167 | $10,071.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:45am ET | $59.06 | 167 | $9,863.85 | $9,923.70 |
$-207.92 (-2.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 3:40pm ET | $59.10 | 167 | $9,870.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $59.22 | 167 | $9,888.91 | $9,942.07 |
+$18.37 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:45am ET | $60.31 | 164 | $9,890.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 1:10pm ET | $60.15 | 164 | $9,864.60 | $9,915.83 |
$-26.24 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $58.35 | 169 | $9,861.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $57.33 | 169 | $9,687.93 | $9,741.76 |
$-174.07 (-1.8%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $56.79 | 171 | $9,711.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $56.92 | 171 | $9,733.32 | $9,763.14 |
+$21.38 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.35 | 173 | $9,749.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $55.61 | 173 | $9,620.58 | $9,634.31 |
$-128.83 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.56 | 173 | $9,612.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $55.39 | 173 | $9,582.47 | $9,604.04 |
$-30.27 (-0.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:05pm ET | $56.55 | 169 | $9,556.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $56.60 | 169 | $9,564.56 | $9,611.65 |
+$7.61 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $55.31 | 173 | $9,567.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.27 | 173 | $9,561.71 | $9,605.60 |
$-6.05 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.87 | 168 | $9,554.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $56.76 | 168 | $9,536.52 | $9,587.96 |
$-17.64 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $57.75 | 166 | $9,586.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $57.76 | 166 | $9,587.33 | $9,588.79 |
+$0.83 (+0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 2:35pm ET | $58.68 | 163 | $9,564.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $58.83 | 163 | $9,589.27 | $9,613.22 |
+$24.43 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.13 | 162 | $9,579.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $59.00 | 162 | $9,558.00 | $9,592.16 |
$-21.06 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $59.16 | 162 | $9,583.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $59.33 | 162 | $9,612.27 | $9,620.51 |
+$28.35 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $59.51 | 161 | $9,581.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.46 | 161 | $9,251.06 | $9,289.65 |
$-330.86 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.74 | 166 | $9,252.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $55.46 | 166 | $9,206.36 | $9,244.00 |
$-45.65 (-0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.60 | 166 | $9,228.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.49 | 166 | $9,376.51 | $9,391.74 |
+$147.74 (+1.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $57.24 | 164 | $9,386.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $57.17 | 164 | $9,375.06 | $9,380.26 |
$-11.48 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $58.76 | 159 | $9,342.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $59.44 | 159 | $9,450.17 | $9,488.38 |
+$108.12 (+1.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $61.02 | 155 | $9,458.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.54 | 155 | $9,538.70 | $9,568.98 |
+$80.60 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $59.56 | 160 | $9,529.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $59.07 | 160 | $9,451.20 | $9,490.58 |
$-78.40 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $58.96 | 160 | $9,432.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $59.26 | 160 | $9,481.57 | $9,539.35 |
+$48.77 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 2:50pm ET | $58.03 | 164 | $9,516.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.93 | 164 | $9,336.54 | $9,359.79 |
$-179.56 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $57.03 | 164 | $9,353.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $56.99 | 164 | $9,347.18 | $9,353.23 |
$-6.56 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $56.30 | 166 | $9,345.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $56.41 | 166 | $9,364.06 | $9,371.32 |
+$18.09 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $58.01 | 161 | $9,338.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.22 | 161 | $9,373.42 | $9,405.94 |
+$34.62 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.55 | 160 | $9,368.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:35am ET | $58.59 | 160 | $9,374.45 | $9,412.39 |
+$6.45 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $58.07 | 162 | $9,407.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $58.01 | 162 | $9,398.43 | $9,403.48 |
$-8.91 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $58.15 | 161 | $9,361.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $58.28 | 161 | $9,382.28 | $9,424.41 |
+$20.93 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $57.15 | 164 | $9,373.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $57.30 | 164 | $9,397.20 | $9,448.19 |
+$23.78 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $58.40 | 161 | $9,402.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.92 | 161 | $9,485.32 | $9,531.10 |
+$82.91 (+0.9%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.71 | 168 | $9,526.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $57.48 | 168 | $9,656.64 | $9,661.30 |
+$130.20 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.60 | 173 | $9,619.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.18 | 173 | $9,546.14 | $9,587.78 |
$-73.52 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.94 | 174 | $9,559.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $54.99 | 174 | $9,567.39 | $9,595.61 |
+$7.83 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $53.60 | 179 | $9,593.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.73 | 179 | $9,617.67 | $9,619.77 |
+$24.16 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,619.77
Net Profit/Loss:
$-380.23
Total Return:
-3.80%