XLK Professor Mean's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 39 trades in period
+4.22%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,800.42
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$12,281.97
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.3/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
39.0/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 38.4
30-Day Momentum
15
-1.3%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.5
Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,281.97
Current Value
$12,800.42
Period P&L
$518.45
Max Drawdown
-11.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
21 /
18
Best Trade
+2.35%
Worst Trade
-2.67%
Avg Trade Return
+0.11%
Avg Hold Time
7.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$985,724.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$518.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$518.45
Gross Return
+4.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,281.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:10pm ET | $183.66 | 66 | $12,121.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $184.57 | 66 | $12,181.62 | $12,342.02 |
+$60.06 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $180.88 | 68 | $12,299.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.42 | 68 | $12,472.56 | $12,514.74 |
+$172.72 (+1.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.01 | 67 | $12,462.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.91 | 67 | $12,455.97 | $12,508.04 |
$-6.70 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $185.13 | 67 | $12,403.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $186.27 | 67 | $12,480.42 | $12,584.75 |
+$76.71 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $184.30 | 68 | $12,532.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $184.10 | 68 | $12,518.46 | $12,570.81 |
$-13.94 (-0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $180.04 | 69 | $12,422.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $179.65 | 69 | $12,395.85 | $12,543.90 |
$-26.91 (-0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
19.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:00pm ET | $185.73 | 67 | $12,443.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.09 | 67 | $12,334.03 | $12,434.02 |
$-109.88 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.98 | 67 | $12,259.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $182.60 | 67 | $12,234.53 | $12,409.23 |
$-24.79 (-0.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:00pm ET | $183.64 | 67 | $12,303.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.59 | 67 | $12,367.53 | $12,472.95 |
+$63.72 (+0.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.62 | 69 | $12,324.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $177.89 | 69 | $12,274.41 | $12,422.58 |
$-50.37 (-0.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $171.91 | 72 | $12,377.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $175.86 | 72 | $12,661.92 | $12,706.98 |
+$284.40 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $176.53 | 71 | $12,533.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.15 | 71 | $12,719.65 | $12,893.00 |
+$186.02 (+1.5%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.41 | 71 | $12,738.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $180.46 | 71 | $12,812.65 | $12,967.55 |
+$74.54 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $179.30 | 72 | $12,909.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $178.61 | 72 | $12,859.92 | $12,917.86 |
$-49.68 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $177.15 | 72 | $12,755.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $175.89 | 72 | $12,664.08 | $12,826.78 |
$-91.08 (-0.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.37 | 75 | $12,777.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.43 | 75 | $12,707.25 | $12,756.28 |
$-70.50 (-0.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $169.92 | 75 | $12,744.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:50pm ET | $168.07 | 75 | $12,605.25 | $12,617.54 |
$-138.75 (-1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $172.97 | 72 | $12,453.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 11:05am ET | $174.83 | 72 | $12,587.77 | $12,751.70 |
+$134.16 (+1.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $178.02 | 71 | $12,639.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.20 | 71 | $12,936.21 | $13,048.49 |
+$296.79 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $187.13 | 69 | $12,911.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.29 | 69 | $12,647.01 | $12,783.53 |
$-264.96 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $186.76 | 68 | $12,699.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 12:50pm ET | $187.57 | 68 | $12,755.10 | $12,838.95 |
+$55.42 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $186.88 | 68 | $12,707.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.46 | 68 | $12,747.28 | $12,878.60 |
+$39.65 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 2:55pm ET | $189.05 | 68 | $12,855.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.99 | 68 | $12,851.32 | $12,874.52 |
$-4.08 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $190.43 | 67 | $12,758.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $191.18 | 67 | $12,809.06 | $12,924.77 |
+$50.25 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $190.71 | 67 | $12,777.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $190.64 | 67 | $12,772.88 | $12,919.81 |
$-4.96 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $184.79 | 69 | $12,750.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $184.20 | 69 | $12,709.80 | $12,879.10 |
$-40.71 (-0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $182.34 | 70 | $12,763.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $182.79 | 70 | $12,795.30 | $12,910.60 |
+$31.50 (+0.2%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $180.38 | 71 | $12,806.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $180.51 | 71 | $12,816.21 | $12,919.83 |
+$9.23 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $186.77 | 69 | $12,887.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $187.35 | 69 | $12,927.14 | $12,959.84 |
+$40.01 (+0.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET | $186.92 | 69 | $12,897.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $186.16 | 69 | $12,845.38 | $12,907.74 |
$-52.10 (-0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.37 | 70 | $12,835.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $183.21 | 70 | $12,824.70 | $12,896.54 |
$-11.20 (-0.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $182.35 | 70 | $12,764.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $183.38 | 70 | $12,836.60 | $12,968.64 |
+$72.10 (+0.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.39 | 69 | $12,791.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 10:40am ET | $186.07 | 69 | $12,838.83 | $13,015.56 |
+$46.92 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 3:10pm ET | $187.91 | 69 | $12,966.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.89 | 69 | $12,619.41 | $12,668.84 |
$-346.72 (-2.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET | $183.80 | 68 | $12,498.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:00pm ET | $183.96 | 68 | $12,509.28 | $12,679.72 |
+$10.88 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $184.68 | 68 | $12,557.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $185.42 | 68 | $12,608.34 | $12,730.16 |
+$50.44 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $187.72 | 67 | $12,577.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $187.99 | 67 | $12,595.31 | $12,748.42 |
+$18.26 (+0.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $195.42 | 65 | $12,702.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $195.40 | 65 | $12,701.00 | $12,747.12 |
$-1.30 (-0.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $193.66 | 65 | $12,587.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 2:30pm ET | $194.48 | 65 | $12,641.20 | $12,800.42 |
+$53.30 (+0.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,800.42
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,800.42
Total Return:
+28.00%