Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
4.3/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 18.5

30-Day Momentum

19
-1.6%
30d Return
70%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.3 Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,969.93
Current Value
$10,230.38
Period P&L
$260.40
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
70
Winners / Losers
45 / 25
Best Trade
+2.47%
Worst Trade
-2.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
6.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,347,983.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$260.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$260.40
Gross Return
+2.61%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 70 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,969.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $479.30 21 $10,065.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $470.00 21 $9,870.00 $9,871.07 $-195.40
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $484.93 20 $9,698.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET $488.40 20 $9,768.00 $9,940.47 +$69.40
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 3:30pm ET $489.00 20 $9,780.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 11:25am ET $479.18 20 $9,583.65 $9,744.12 $-196.35
(-2.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET $495.17 19 $9,408.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:40pm ET $495.77 19 $9,419.63 $9,755.52 +$11.40
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $487.41 20 $9,748.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 10:30am ET $488.61 20 $9,772.30 $9,779.62 +$24.10
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $497.42 19 $9,450.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 11:25am ET $496.08 19 $9,425.61 $9,754.25 $-25.37
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $498.10 19 $9,463.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 1:40pm ET $499.07 19 $9,482.33 $9,772.68 +$18.43
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET $525.22 18 $9,453.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET $523.68 18 $9,426.24 $9,744.96 $-27.72
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $525.74 18 $9,463.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $525.71 18 $9,462.78 $9,744.33 $-0.63
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $525.10 18 $9,451.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET $527.05 18 $9,486.90 $9,779.34 +$35.01
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:20am ET $516.55 18 $9,297.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:35pm ET $517.87 18 $9,321.66 $9,803.01 +$23.67
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET $457.67 21 $9,611.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 2:00pm ET $459.25 21 $9,644.25 $9,836.19 +$33.18
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $468.40 20 $9,368.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET $473.77 20 $9,475.50 $9,943.59 +$107.40
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:20am ET $464.39 21 $9,752.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:45am ET $467.90 21 $9,825.90 $10,017.30 +$73.71
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 1:25pm ET $465.86 21 $9,783.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:15pm ET $464.92 21 $9,763.32 $9,997.46 $-19.84
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
16 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $472.33 21 $9,919.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 1:25pm ET $470.13 21 $9,872.73 $9,951.16 $-46.30
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
17 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 3:50pm ET $462.49 21 $9,712.29 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $466.84 21 $9,803.64 $10,042.51 +$91.35
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
18 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 3:35pm ET $469.03 21 $9,849.63 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 10:45am ET $463.78 21 $9,739.38 $9,932.26 $-110.25
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.2h held
19 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 10:50am ET $460.02 21 $9,660.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 12:55pm ET $453.68 21 $9,527.28 $9,799.01 $-133.25
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
20 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 3:50pm ET $458.51 21 $9,628.71 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $453.92 21 $9,532.32 $9,702.62 $-96.39
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
21 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $451.45 21 $9,480.45 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET $453.56 21 $9,524.76 $9,746.93 +$44.31
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
22 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 1:55pm ET $440.83 22 $9,698.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 3:30pm ET $439.05 22 $9,659.10 $9,707.88 $-39.05
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
23 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $440.00 22 $9,680.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 11:05am ET $444.82 22 $9,786.04 $9,813.83 +$105.95
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
24 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 12:20pm ET $448.52 21 $9,418.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $449.55 21 $9,440.45 $9,835.36 +$21.53
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
25 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $445.31 22 $9,796.82 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 10:00am ET $447.24 22 $9,839.28 $9,877.82 +$42.46
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
26 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 3:25pm ET $486.17 20 $9,723.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $482.22 20 $9,644.40 $9,798.82 $-79.00
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $490.88 19 $9,326.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:40am ET $489.74 19 $9,305.06 $9,777.16 $-21.66
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $482.40 20 $9,648.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 1:45pm ET $479.56 20 $9,591.20 $9,720.36 $-56.80
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET $474.86 20 $9,497.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:05am ET $475.40 20 $9,508.04 $9,731.10 +$10.74
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:45am ET $472.38 20 $9,447.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 12:50pm ET $472.98 20 $9,459.60 $9,743.10 +$12.00
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
31 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET $488.79 19 $9,286.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET $491.07 19 $9,330.33 $9,786.52 +$43.42
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
32 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET $480.63 20 $9,612.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $472.20 20 $9,443.98 $9,617.90 $-168.62
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
33 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:15pm ET $467.70 20 $9,354.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 3:10pm ET $469.24 20 $9,384.80 $9,648.70 +$30.80
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
34 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 2:00pm ET $474.39 20 $9,487.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $466.89 20 $9,337.80 $9,498.70 $-150.00
(-1.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held
35 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $461.00 20 $9,220.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:50am ET $466.38 20 $9,327.60 $9,606.30 +$107.60
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
36 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $486.33 19 $9,240.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 1:55pm ET $488.33 19 $9,278.29 $9,644.22 +$37.92
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:10pm ET $506.30 19 $9,619.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 3:15pm ET $506.42 19 $9,622.07 $9,646.69 +$2.47
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 12:25pm ET $501.71 19 $9,532.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 12:50pm ET $503.83 19 $9,572.77 $9,686.97 +$40.28
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 3:45pm ET $502.83 19 $9,553.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $500.71 19 $9,513.49 $9,646.69 $-40.28
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
40 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $518.82 18 $9,338.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET $513.30 18 $9,239.49 $9,547.42 $-99.27
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
41 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $510.08 18 $9,181.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 11:00am ET $509.83 18 $9,176.94 $9,543.01 $-4.41
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
42 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:40pm ET $519.97 18 $9,359.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $521.04 18 $9,378.81 $9,562.36 +$19.35
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
43 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $522.63 18 $9,407.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $529.68 18 $9,534.33 $9,689.35 +$126.99
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
44 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:35pm ET $534.03 18 $9,612.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 1:25pm ET $537.78 18 $9,680.04 $9,756.85 +$67.50
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
45 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $532.56 18 $9,586.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $527.72 18 $9,498.96 $9,669.73 $-87.12
(-0.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $509.77 18 $9,175.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 11:05am ET $516.89 18 $9,303.93 $9,797.89 +$128.16
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 3:45pm ET $523.47 18 $9,422.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $526.24 18 $9,472.32 $9,847.75 +$49.86
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $562.04 17 $9,554.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $558.88 17 $9,500.88 $9,793.95 $-53.80
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 2:30pm ET $560.90 17 $9,535.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $574.77 17 $9,771.09 $10,029.73 +$235.79
(+2.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19h held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET $575.93 17 $9,790.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 1:55pm ET $574.48 17 $9,766.24 $10,005.17 $-24.57
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $566.04 17 $9,622.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 11:25am ET $566.20 17 $9,625.40 $10,007.93 +$2.76
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
52 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 1:15pm ET $573.05 17 $9,741.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 1:35pm ET $574.76 17 $9,770.92 $10,037.04 +$29.11
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
53 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 2:55pm ET $565.39 17 $9,611.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $566.51 17 $9,630.59 $10,056.08 +$19.04
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.6h held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $571.89 17 $9,722.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET $574.96 17 $9,774.32 $10,108.27 +$52.19
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $597.51 16 $9,560.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:35am ET $597.55 16 $9,560.80 $10,108.99 +$0.72
(+0.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $596.85 16 $9,549.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET $603.20 16 $9,651.20 $10,210.59 +$101.60
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 1:05pm ET $591.33 17 $10,052.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 1:45pm ET $592.50 17 $10,072.50 $10,230.48 +$19.89
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 12:35pm ET $612.61 16 $9,801.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 1:30pm ET $613.99 16 $9,823.84 $10,252.56 +$22.08
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
59 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 3:05pm ET $627.47 16 $10,039.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:15pm ET $629.34 16 $10,069.36 $10,282.40 +$29.84
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
60 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $619.67 16 $9,914.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET $626.47 16 $10,023.52 $10,391.12 +$108.72
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
61 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:30pm ET $625.74 16 $10,011.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET $627.14 16 $10,034.24 $10,413.52 +$22.40
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
62 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $630.38 16 $10,086.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $637.04 16 $10,192.64 $10,520.08 +$106.56
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
63 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $626.87 16 $10,029.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 11:20am ET $622.46 16 $9,959.28 $10,449.44 $-70.64
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
64 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $613.09 17 $10,422.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $602.50 17 $10,242.50 $10,269.33 $-180.11
(-1.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.9h held
65 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:25pm ET $609.42 16 $9,750.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $610.67 16 $9,770.72 $10,289.33 +$20.00
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
66 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:00pm ET $612.31 16 $9,796.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $602.18 16 $9,634.88 $10,127.25 $-162.08
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
67 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $600.38 16 $9,606.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:25am ET $603.53 16 $9,656.40 $10,177.57 +$50.32
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
68 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:15pm ET $610.92 16 $9,774.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:00pm ET $611.16 16 $9,778.48 $10,181.33 +$3.76
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
69 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $655.80 15 $9,837.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:35am ET $658.02 15 $9,870.30 $10,214.56 +$33.23
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
70 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 12:40pm ET $654.68 15 $9,820.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:30pm ET $655.74 15 $9,836.10 $10,230.38 +$15.82
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,230.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$230.38
Total Return: +2.30%
Back to Professor Mean