Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-23 15:57:49

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 11.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

28
+0.8%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.5 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,420
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
124 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,276.50
Current Value
$9,631.03
Period P&L
$354.53
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
72
Winners / Losers
45 / 27
Best Trade
+3.31%
Worst Trade
-3.45%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
8.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,386,620.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$354.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$354.53
Gross Return
+3.82%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 124 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 72 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,276.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET $45.58 203 $9,251.73
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $47.09 203 $9,558.26 $9,583.01 +$306.53
(+3.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $46.65 205 $9,563.25
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 2:25pm ET $45.78 205 $9,383.88 $9,403.64 $-179.38
(-1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
4.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 3:30pm ET $45.15 208 $9,390.16
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $45.64 208 $9,493.12 $9,506.60 +$102.96
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 12:50pm ET $46.58 204 $9,502.32
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 1:45pm ET $46.68 204 $9,521.70 $9,525.98 +$19.38
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 2:20pm ET $46.18 206 $9,512.05
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 3:25pm ET $46.22 206 $9,520.29 $9,534.22 +$8.24
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 3:45pm ET $46.92 203 $9,523.75
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $47.48 203 $9,638.24 $9,648.71 +$114.49
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $47.44 203 $9,630.32
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:40am ET $47.78 203 $9,699.34 $9,717.73 +$69.02
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:40pm ET $47.68 203 $9,678.03
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $47.59 203 $9,659.84 $9,699.54 $-18.19
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET $48.50 199 $9,651.50
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:35am ET $48.64 199 $9,678.37 $9,726.41 +$26.86
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
54m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 12:50pm ET $49.33 197 $9,718.01
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 2:00pm ET $49.35 197 $9,720.97 $9,729.36 +$2.96
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 12:55pm ET $49.73 195 $9,697.35
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:05pm ET $49.92 195 $9,734.40 $9,766.41 +$37.05
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 2:55pm ET $50.60 193 $9,764.84
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:35am ET $50.51 193 $9,748.43 $9,750.01 $-16.41
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.7h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 1:55pm ET $50.09 194 $9,717.46
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 2:25pm ET $50.38 194 $9,773.72 $9,806.27 +$56.26
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $51.83 189 $9,795.87
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET $51.76 189 $9,783.58 $9,793.98 $-12.29
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET $53.21 184 $9,789.72
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET $53.27 184 $9,801.68 $9,805.94 +$11.96
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
48m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET $53.55 183 $9,799.65
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:45am ET $53.47 183 $9,785.92 $9,792.21 $-13.73
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 1:05pm ET $54.83 178 $9,760.63
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 1:25pm ET $54.97 178 $9,784.27 $9,815.85 +$23.64
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET $54.19 181 $9,808.39
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $54.13 181 $9,797.53 $9,804.99 $-10.86
(-0.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET $54.54 179 $9,762.66
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 3:00pm ET $54.69 179 $9,790.40 $9,832.73 +$27.74
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET $55.11 178 $9,809.58
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 12:25pm ET $54.59 178 $9,717.02 $9,740.17 $-92.56
(-0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.9h held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 2:30pm ET $54.99 177 $9,732.35
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 2:50pm ET $55.07 177 $9,747.39 $9,755.21 +$15.04
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 9:50am ET $54.69 178 $9,733.93
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 11:15am ET $54.47 178 $9,695.66 $9,716.94 $-38.27
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 1:35pm ET $55.20 176 $9,715.18
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $55.22 176 $9,717.84 $9,719.60 +$2.66
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $56.52 171 $9,664.92
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 1:10pm ET $56.76 171 $9,705.96 $9,760.64 +$41.04
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET $56.67 172 $9,748.10
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:45pm ET $56.38 172 $9,696.50 $9,709.04 $-51.60
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $56.26 172 $9,676.72
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 1:45pm ET $56.47 172 $9,711.98 $9,744.30 +$35.26
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
27 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:40pm ET $56.48 172 $9,714.56
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET $56.72 172 $9,755.84 $9,785.58 +$41.28
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
28 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $56.03 174 $9,749.22
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET $55.84 174 $9,716.16 $9,752.52 $-33.06
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
29 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 3:45pm ET $57.69 169 $9,750.45
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:55am ET $57.80 169 $9,768.20 $9,770.26 +$17.74
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
30 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 11:50am ET $57.81 169 $9,769.89
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $57.84 169 $9,774.98 $9,775.35 +$5.09
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
31 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 3:30pm ET $58.56 166 $9,720.96
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $58.80 166 $9,760.80 $9,815.19 +$39.84
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held
32 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 3:20pm ET $59.17 165 $9,763.87
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $59.38 165 $9,798.52 $9,849.84 +$34.65
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
33 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $58.02 169 $9,805.38
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 10:10am ET $59.35 169 $10,030.99 $10,075.45 +$225.61
(+2.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
34 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 2:15pm ET $60.81 165 $10,034.47
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:55am ET $60.77 165 $10,027.05 $10,068.03 $-7.42
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.7h held
35 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 3:35pm ET $61.53 163 $10,029.39
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $61.75 163 $10,065.25 $10,103.89 +$35.86
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18h held
36 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET $61.86 163 $10,083.18
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $62.03 163 $10,110.91 $10,131.62 +$27.73
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
37 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $60.31 167 $10,071.77
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 11:45am ET $59.06 167 $9,863.85 $9,923.70 $-207.92
(-2.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
38 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 3:40pm ET $59.10 167 $9,870.53
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $59.22 167 $9,888.91 $9,942.07 +$18.37
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
39 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 11:45am ET $60.31 164 $9,890.84
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 1:10pm ET $60.15 164 $9,864.60 $9,915.83 $-26.24
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
40 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET $58.35 169 $9,861.99
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $57.33 169 $9,687.93 $9,741.76 $-174.07
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8h held
41 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $56.79 171 $9,711.94
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET $56.92 171 $9,733.32 $9,763.14 +$21.38
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
42 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $56.35 173 $9,749.41
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $55.61 173 $9,620.58 $9,634.31 $-128.83
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
43 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET $55.56 173 $9,612.74
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $55.39 173 $9,582.47 $9,604.04 $-30.27
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
44 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:05pm ET $56.55 169 $9,556.95
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:15pm ET $56.60 169 $9,564.56 $9,611.65 +$7.61
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
45 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $55.31 173 $9,567.77
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $55.27 173 $9,561.71 $9,605.60 $-6.05
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held
46 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $56.87 168 $9,554.16
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET $56.76 168 $9,536.52 $9,587.96 $-17.64
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
47 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $57.75 166 $9,586.50
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 2:30pm ET $57.76 166 $9,587.33 $9,588.79 +$0.83
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
48 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 2:35pm ET $58.68 163 $9,564.84
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:15pm ET $58.83 163 $9,589.27 $9,613.22 +$24.43
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
49 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $59.13 162 $9,579.06
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:00am ET $59.00 162 $9,558.00 $9,592.16 $-21.06
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
50 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $59.16 162 $9,583.92
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $59.33 162 $9,612.27 $9,620.51 +$28.35
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
51 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $59.51 161 $9,581.91
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 161 $9,251.06 $9,289.65 $-330.86
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
52 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $55.74 166 $9,252.01
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 11:05am ET $55.46 166 $9,206.36 $9,244.00 $-45.65
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
53 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $55.60 166 $9,228.77
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $56.49 166 $9,376.51 $9,391.74 +$147.74
(+1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
54 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $57.24 164 $9,386.54
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 11:55am ET $57.17 164 $9,375.06 $9,380.26 $-11.48
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
55 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $58.76 159 $9,342.05
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:05am ET $59.44 159 $9,450.17 $9,488.38 +$108.12
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
56 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $61.02 155 $9,458.10
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $61.54 155 $9,538.70 $9,568.98 +$80.60
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
57 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $59.56 160 $9,529.60
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $59.07 160 $9,451.20 $9,490.58 $-78.40
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
58 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 1:30pm ET $58.96 160 $9,432.80
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 1:50pm ET $59.26 160 $9,481.57 $9,539.35 +$48.77
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
59 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $58.03 164 $9,516.10
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $56.93 164 $9,336.54 $9,359.79 $-179.56
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held
60 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 12:45pm ET $57.03 164 $9,353.74
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 2:30pm ET $56.99 164 $9,347.18 $9,353.23 $-6.56
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
61 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 3:15pm ET $56.30 166 $9,345.97
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 3:45pm ET $56.41 166 $9,364.06 $9,371.32 +$18.09
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
62 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:35pm ET $58.01 161 $9,338.81
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $58.22 161 $9,373.42 $9,405.94 +$34.62
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held
63 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $58.55 160 $9,368.00
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 10:35am ET $58.59 160 $9,374.45 $9,412.39 +$6.45
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
64 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:50am ET $58.07 162 $9,407.34
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 1:10pm ET $58.01 162 $9,398.43 $9,403.48 $-8.91
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
65 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:35pm ET $58.15 161 $9,361.35
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:45pm ET $58.28 161 $9,382.28 $9,424.41 +$20.93
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
66 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:20pm ET $57.15 164 $9,373.42
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $57.30 164 $9,397.20 $9,448.19 +$23.78
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
67 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $58.40 161 $9,402.40
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $58.92 161 $9,485.32 $9,531.10 +$82.91
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
68 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $56.71 168 $9,526.44
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET $57.48 168 $9,656.64 $9,661.30 +$130.20
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
69 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $55.60 173 $9,619.66
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $55.18 173 $9,546.14 $9,587.78 $-73.52
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
70 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET $54.94 174 $9,559.56
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:45am ET $54.99 174 $9,567.39 $9,595.61 +$7.83
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
71 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 3:45pm ET $53.60 179 $9,593.51
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $53.73 179 $9,617.67 $9,619.77 +$24.16
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.7d held
72 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 3:05pm ET $54.39 176 $9,572.82
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $54.46 176 $9,584.08 $9,631.03 +$11.26
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,631.03
Net Profit/Loss: $-368.97
Total Return: -3.69%
Back to Professor Mean